First-round Phantom Draft: An early look at who goes where, when bids will come

It's finally draft season.

Changes to draft points and matching bids make for complications on the four club-tied prospects in this Phantom Draft, but they also shorten the first round to 18 selections.

It's a hotly-contested race to be the first overall pick in the open draft. Midfielder Ethan Drever and goalkicker Arki Butler have inside track to be that choice for Essendon, but the decision is still to be narrowed down with Heath Mellody, Harry Van Hattum, and Gus Teixeira all making strong cases.

Bidding changes mean clubs may only match with two selections, and a 20% points loading is given to the Brisbane Lions for making the Grand Final whereas Port Adelaide and GWS receive a 10% discount for missing finals.

It means picks are absorbed within the first round to effectively shorten night one of the AFL Draft.

Recruiters love the depth of the crop that has emerged this year, but a real evenness in talent from 15 through 30 will make for volatile slides and rises come November.

Exactly five weeks out from the 2026 AFL Draft, this is ESPN's first-round Phantom Draft.

1. BID - Port Adelaide: Dougie Cochrane
Port Adelaide/South Australia
FWD/MID/DEF, 195cm

Essendon has all but guaranteed Port Adelaide it will be bidding on Cochrane first overall. He's worth the hype; a roaming key forward with midfield ambitions that played the final month of an injury-plagued top-age campaign behind the ball as a designated kicker. Cochrane has been the nominal first choice in this draft for 24 months and Port Adelaide will have no issue matching, and they've left the door open for clubs to come calling for picks seven and 12 in the lead-up to draft night.

Picks used: 7 and 12

2. Essendon: Ethan Drever
GWV Rebels/Vic Country
MID, 188cm

It's still far from a guarantee that Essendon opt for Drever but there's growing buzz around the powerful midfielder. An injury-free season set him up to dominate for club and state alike, with the Ballarat local producing gaudy numbers for the Rebels and Vic Country. He runs hard both ways, uses his legs to drive out of contest and has a penchant for kicking long-running goals. Similarly to 2016 when they selected skipper Andrew McGrath, the Dons don't have a clear no. 1 in the open pool.

In the mix: Arki Butler, Heath Mellody

3. Richmond: Arki Butler
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
MID/FWD, 182cm

Richmond's decision here will be highly dependent on their intel into West Coast and Melbourne after them. Butler presents as the best on the board and most unlikely to be available at their next selection. He's a match-winner inside forward 50 with aerial strength and tricks at ground level, kicking goals in bunches and pinch-hitting with power through the middle. With a host of tall forwards and midfielders drafted in recent years, Butler fits nicely amongst the young Tigers nucleus but real interest in Harry Van Hattum could see them flip this order.

In the mix: Harry Van Hattum, Ethan Drever

4. BID - Carlton: Cody Walker
Carlton VFL/Vic Country
MID, 184cm

The Blues are banking on a Walker bid arriving after pick two. Picks 13 and 18 (which become 12 and 17 after a Cochrane bid) is enough to match a bid from three onwards with a minor points deficit. If Essendon surprises by reading out Walker's name in the first two the Blues must have contingencies in place so the son-of-a-gun doesn't slip through. Walker is worthy of a bid at two - he plays at breakneck speed with elite acceleration and evasiveness through the midfield, impressing week in, week out for Carlton's VFL side.

The son of Andrew opted to nominate the Blues over academy club Richmond this year which may dissuade the Tigers from making a bid, but this is close to the end of Walker's draft range and West Coast already has history bidding on Blues father-sons.

Picks used: 12 and 17

5. West Coast: Heath Mellody
Claremont/Western Australia
MID/DEF, 184cm

The hometown kid enjoyed the strongest finish to 2026 of any prospect. Mellody claimed the Larke Medal at the national championships, made his WAFL debut and was one of Claremont's best performers up to the grand final. His name sits comfortably amongst the best in the class with his work rate, clean hands and class by foot making him the perfect complement to Harley Reid and Willem Duursma.

In the mix: Arki Butler, Gus Teixeira

6. Melbourne (via Port Adelaide): Mitch Harris
Woodville-West Torrens/South Australia
DEF, 195cm

Melbourne made a deal to move up two spots in the draft, effectively jumping North's selection at the time. That pick now lands with Sydney but it shouldn't impact who the Dees had in mind. Harris is the bolter this year, rising from a likely second round prospect at the start of the season to the consensus best key defender in the pool. He locks down, intercepts and has shown flashes up forward, plus impressed in SANFL finals to finish the season against mature bodies. The Swans will have interest in Harris given their shallow key defensive stocks, but the Dees will kick off his draft range at this point.

In the mix: Harry Van Hattum, Heath Mellody

7. Richmond (via Port Adelaide): Harry Van Hattum
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
RUC/FWD, 205cm

Richmond would be thrilled to see Van Hattum get through to the pick they brought in via Port Adelaide. The big ruck trained with the club over pre-season and he ripped games apart at various stages of 2026. Van Hattum plays with a physical edge, follows up as an extra midfielder and uses the ball beautifully off his favoured right boot. He looms as the perfect replacement for skipper Toby Nankervis, so much so that Van Hattum could even be snapped up by the Tigers with their first selection before Melbourne gets a look in.

In the mix: Gus Teixeira, Mitch Harris

8. BID - GWS: Ethan Matthews

GWS made an early bid on Harry Kyle last year and Sydney can return the favour here. Trading into pick six via the Blakey deal puts the Swans firmly in the range of Matthews, an excellent midfield prospect that racks up the ball and uses it with composure off his left foot. GWS would be matching with pick 11 at this stage, and could look to trade points into future years on the night to maximise their draft hand while still landing their academy gun. Matthews is clearly the best Giants Academy prospect since Tom Green in 2019.

Picks used: 11 and 19

9. Sydney (via North Melbourne): Gus Teixeira
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
MID, 181cm

If the top key defender is off the board the Swans will have an eye on the best available talent, having not drafted a top-10 talent since Logan McDonald and Braeden Campbell in 2020. Teixeira is the highly rated prospect that slides in this phantom, but could easily be snapped up by the Dees or Tigers prior. Playing with powerful drive in the forward half, Teixeira's impact with ball in hand has been a standout all season. He'll start his career as a general forward but there's little doubt amongst recruiters that Teixeira will soon be a midfielder at the next level.

In the mix: Mitch Harris, Tyson Bradley

10. Gold Coast (FA compensation): Sam Gayfer
Northern Knights/Vic Metro
FWD, 194cm

Gayfer is deserving of a top 10 pick this year and the Suns come into this selection through Ben King's departure. Even while bringing in Aidan Schubert their key forward stocks are thin and Gayfer is the competitive beast that Damien Hardwick covets. He crashes packs, pressures at ground level and can jump on heads to take massive marks. The Suns swooping here would be a blow for the Saints and Pies who are keen on the athletic tall.

In the mix: Tyson Bradley, Clancy Snell

11. BID - Brisbane: Caylen Murray
Lions Academy/Allies
DEF/MID, 183cm

The Keidean Coleman trade to Essendon at the death gives Brisbane three picks in the second round that will need to be consolidated to match a bid at this stage. The academy star has some similarities to Coleman in his precise ball use off halfback. He generates run and is safe with ball in hand, making the right decisions and creating space for himself and others. Murray appeals as a replacement for Dayne Zorko and could play significant football in 2027, with the Saints on the lookout for a ball user of his quality.

12. St Kilda: Wil Malady
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
FWD, 190cm

The Saints would love to see Gayfer here as a key forward option, but have a nice group of talls to pick from. Malady is the wildcard play, with excellent athleticism including a big leap and sensational agility at his size. He works himself into the ground as a link between the forwards and midfielders, but can also play deep as a dangerous aerial target.

In the mix: Sam Gayfer, Lochie Burrows

13. Collingwood: Tyson Bradley
Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
DEF, 195cm

The Pies are in the market for a tall at either end of the ground and will get one at this spot. Bradley is ultra composed and a steady kick out of defence, twisting and turning out of trouble and relieving pressure for his side. He also competes well in the air against key forwards including successful matchups on Malady and Gayfer in finals contests. Clubs have loved his leadership and character qualities so he could land even higher than this mark. Collingwood will be eager to see if Gayfer gets through as the nephew of premiership defender Mick.

In the mix: Sam Gayfer, Clancy Snell, Wil Malady

14. Melbourne (via Port Adelaide): Leo Steed
Swan Districts/Western Australia
MID, 176cm

If the Dees go tall with Harris or Van Hattum first they can get their midfielder here. Steed is ultra professional, a two-way runner and brings his courage and toughness to every contest. Recruiters are confident the WA hard nut makes it as an on-baller at the next level and Melbourne is primed to add youth to that area of the ground.

In the mix: Toby Krasna, Jake Eime

State 18s young gun Leo Steed ticking along nicely at senior level for @SwanDistrictsFC since his debut in Round 2. Steed had his best league game against West Coast WAFL on Sunday, kicking two goals from 15 disposals and three inside 50s to be among his side's best.
AAMI WA... pic.twitter.com/YsFmxvlEI2

— Jordan McArdle (@jordan_mc12) May 1, 2026

15. Adelaide: Clancy Snell
Gippsland Power/Vic Country
DEF, 196cm

The Crows held onto Nick Murray but lost Jordon Butts and are thin down back. Snell gives them a high-upside swing at the best intercept defender in the class. He's an elite aerialist that backs himself to kickstart transition. They remain in need of some dash out of defence with local product Jake Eime's range beginning at this point too.

In the mix: Tyson Bradley, Jake Eime, Kodah Edwards