There are plenty of talking points to come out of Round 14 of the AFL, and the red-hot Brownlow Medal race is certainly one of them. Is Nick Daicos still the one to beat or is there another contender that's taken over favouritism for the award?
Let's get to this week's overreactions column, where we judge the biggest takeaways as legitimate or irrational.
There's too much competition, Nick Daicos won't win this year's Brownlow Medal
Bailey Smith. Marcus Bontempelli. Jordan Dawson. Kysaiah Pickett. Isaac Heeney. Every week it seems as if a new Brownlow Medal contender emerges and throws down the challenge to pre-season favourite Nick Daicos. So, as we begin the back nine of the 2026 home and away season, and attention slowly starts to shift to the league's most prestigious individual award, we've began wondering who might be taking home the medal.
Verdict: Overreaction
There may well be a greater number of legitimate Brownlow Medal contenders than many of us thought, particularly this deep into the season, but as long as Daicos is healthy, he must be the favourite for the award. And an overwhelming favourite, at that.
The Collingwood superstar has been arguably the best player in the game over the last 36 months and could easily have won the medal in each of the last three seasons. Don't forget, he's polled a staggering 98 votes across the last three campaigns! Alas, 'Charlie' continues to elude him. However, through 14 rounds of 2026, he's back atop our Brownlow Medal predictor.
This season, Daicos is averaging 35 disposals, five clearances, seven inside 50s, and more than a goal per game. Simply extraordinary numbers. I've got Daicos on 22.5 votes and polling in 11 of the 12 games he's played, including arguable best on ground performances in six (perhaps seven) of them.
My predictor has Daicos 1.5 votes clear of Smith in second spot, four votes ahead of Heeney in third, and 4.5 votes in front of Bontempelli in fourth. It's also worth noting each of those main challengers to Daicos have enjoyed an extra game and their clubs will be taking their respective mid-season byes in the next two weeks. Others in contention for this year's gong include two-time winner Lachie Neale (16.5), Port star Zak Butters (16), Pickett (16), and Dawson (16).
What do the bookmakers say about this year's Brownlow Medal race? Well, it's tight! Daicos is a slight favourite at $4.50, ahead of Smith at $5.50, and both Heeney and Bontempelli at $6. A monster month of form from Dawson has seen the Adelaide captain shorten into $10 odds. Sure, any of these guys could walk away with this year's Brownlow Medal, but I'm convinced it's still Daicos' award to lose. If he's healthy, he's the one to beat for the medal.
-- Jake Michaels
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