So Scotland now know. If they are going to make it through to the World Cup knockouts for the first time in their history, it won't be by topping the group. It won't even be in second. It will be via the backdoor, as one of the top-ranked third teams.
Their goal difference won't help, following a 3-0 defeat to Brazil off the back of a 1-0 loss to Morocco in a tricky Group C.
Will their tournament-opening win over Haiti be enough? And how have other results go against them?
Here's how it currently looks for Steve Clarke's side.
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Where Scotland rank in third-place rankings
A 48-team World Cup has opened up several more opportunities to make it through to the knockouts. Instead of 16 teams advancing to the first knockout round as per previous tournaments, 32 will make it out of the group stage in 2026. Not only will all 12 group winners and 12 second-placed teams advance, but also the eight best third-place teams.
Not all teams have played three times like Scotland, and this is how the standings currently look. You can see how that -3 goal difference may came back to haunt them...
How will the best third-place teams be determined?
Unlike the group stage rankings where the first tiebreaker is head to head record, third-place teams in the group stage are ranked by these criteria, in order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Team conduct score
5. FIFA world ranking
What do Scotland need to happen?
Essentially, Scotland can't afford to drop any rankings in the standings, and eight more groups still have final matches to play. Opta gives them just a 7.3% chance of qualification, with that dropping following South Africa's win against South Korea on Wednesday, and Ecuador's over Germany on Thursday.
Before those games, one path for Scotland to advance was South Africa not beating South Korea, Germany beating Ecuador, Spain beating Uruguay and Egypt beating Iran. But that's over now, and they essentially need four results to go in their favour from all the groups.
Let's break it down.
Groups A, B, C and E are the only groups to complete all their games. Ecuador (Group E) currently top of the rankings ahead of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Group B) on four points, so Scotland will certainly finish below them. South Korea (Group A) are also above them, after a surprise defeat to South Africa, who would have placed below Scotland with a draw or defeat.
In Group D, Paraguay and Australia are locked on three points with a goal difference of one, and play each other in the final game. Scotland would require a heavy defeat for either to have a chance of finishing above, there.
In Group F, Netherlands, Japan and Sweden could all finish third, technically. But only Sweden could finish below Scotland in the rankings, and they have a +4 goal advantage over Clarke's side.
In Group G, Belgium are third after two disappointing draws, but take on New Zealand in their last game. You'd expect them to win that, and potentially leapfrog Iran, who are second but face Egypt. They have two points, so a defeat to Egypt helps Scotland.
In Group H, Cape Verde are third and face Saudi Arabia in their last game. A result there, then, looks bad for Scotland but Uruguay also have two points and face Spain last up. So a Uruguay defeat to Spain would mean Scotland finish above another team.
In Group I, Senegal are third without a point, but take on Iraq last game. Scotland may need Senegal to stumble.
In Group J, it's between Algeria and Austria, who play each other in their last game. Scotland will likely hope for an Austria win, here, but it would have to be by two goals to give them a chance.
In Group K, Congo DR are third but you'd expect them to defeat Uzbekistan and move ahead of Scotland.
In Group L, meanwhile, Scotland can only really hope for a big Ghana win against Croatia, by three goals or more.
Who would Scotland play if they qualify?
Scotland themselves are in Group C and that means they could face the group winner from Group A, E and I, if of course, they finish among the top eight third place teams.
That would likely see them face either Mexico, Germany or France.
Those games would either take place on Monday, June 29 or Tuesday, June 30 in Boston, New Jersey or Mexico City.