Unrealised potential, fly-half merry go round colour Joe Schmidt's Wallabies legacy

With a final win to his name Joe Schmidt has bowed out as Wallabies coach and entered coaching retirement on a high.

From New Zealand, to France, Ireland, and Australia, his two-decade long coaching career is seemingly coming to an end -- at least at Test level -- but as he prepares to ride off into the sunset -- and coach alongside Stephen Larkham and Simon Cron with the Australia A team later this year -- analysing the legacy Schmidt leaves behind is no easy task.

Coming in when the side was at its darkest depths, failing to reach the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time after a failed 2023 World Cup campaign under Eddie Jones, Schmidt was handed a rabble of a team that was low in belief and struggling to find answers. But as much as he's turned the side around and built solid foundations for the group, big key issues remain. And while the Australian rugby public have certainly shown faith in Schmidt and his men -- six straight sold-out home Tests is testament to that -- the important results remained elusive.

While the side's stunning nine-tries-to-two rout of Italy in Perth put an end to their six-match losing streak and run of nine losses in 10 Tests, the numbers paint a detailed picture of where Schmidt's Wallabies currently sit.

From 31 Tests, the 60-year-old registered 12 victories and 19 defeats, giving him a winning percentage of just 38.7%. Of all the Wallabies coaches in the professional era it's not the lowest, that remains with Dave Rennie on 38.2% and Eddie Jones in his disastrous second stint, but it sheds light on the frustrating inconsistencies plaguing the group.

So, what does Joe Schmidt's Wallabies legacy look like?


FOUNDATIONS PUT IN PLACE

If anything has been made clear through Schmidt's 31 Test tenure, it's that the foundations for a winning team are there, the next step requires putting the final coat of paint to turn the narrow misses into victories.

Just last year the Wallabies set-piece had fallen to pieces. The lineout was shot and the scrum a mess as the side succumbed to their worst end-of-year tour result in 62 years, but after just three Tests in 2026, the Wallabies have turned it all around.

Across the July series, they've dropped just three lineouts -- two against Italy -- while they picked off several of their oppositions', as they turned one of their biggest weaknesses into their biggest strength. In the first half against Italy alone their lineout led to four of the side's six tries.

Josh Canham's elevation to the starting side, alongside Jeremy Williams, will be looked at as a stroke of gold from Schmidt after he put his faith in the 25-year-old to turn the lineout around. His hat trick against the Azzurri the cherry on top of a series that he came close to dominating, with dynamic carries, a huge work rate, and lineout accuracy. Clean up his discipline, especially when under the pump, and improve his accuracy off the ball, and he's set for a solid future in the Wallabies jersey.

The scrum, meanwhile, has seen its own revival thanks to the return of Angus Bell and Taniela Tupou, while Allan Alaalatoa has quietly returned to career best form off the back of an Achilles rupture in 2023 and a lower back issue earlier this year. Add too Josh Nasser's improving form and Brandon Paenga-Amosa's strength and you have an engine room that's thriving and muscling up against the big packs of world rugby, while their back-row continues to mix it with the best.

A severe lack of big bodies from the bench, though, is where the problems arise and is an area Les Kiss will be tasked with finding a solution to -- the return of Lukhan Salakai-Loto could be front of mind. While he'll be sweating Will Skelton can return to his monstrous best next year off the back of an Achilles injury.

Meanwhile, Schmidt has given the side clear direction with the ball and according to captain Harry Wilson he's "made rugby a lot simpler for us".

At their best they've shown frightening pace, as they work the edges, test the defence and look to keep the ball moving as they go from side to side. The forwards have been lethal finding the soft shoulder and exposing the gaps, but too often they've lacked the polish to finish and while they bent Ireland and France, the world heavy weights found a way to push back, regather and out muscle them.

In the process of building the side's foundation, Schmidt handed out 27 debuts across his 31 Tests, 19 in his first season alone, some injury enforced, many more as genuine future Test stars, including Max Jorgensen, Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, Carlo Tizzano, and Ryan Lonergan as the building blocks to next year's World Cup were put into place.

Jorgensen has been a standout in a backline that continues to look dangerous, alongside Tom Wright, Harry Potter, Dylan Pietsch, and Filipo Daugunu, while Suaalii's true potential has failed to materialise with questions of his best position constantly being asked. For Schmidt it was outside centre, perhaps Kiss will see it another way.

But it's Lonergan who demonstrated on Saturday night he has the ability to drive the lethal backline, moving the ball with urgency, spotting the space behind with his kicking and keeping the side moving with accuracy.

Finding a No. 10 to join him and hold the playmaking reins though will be a job for Kiss.

FLY-HALF MERRY GO ROUND

As Schmidt rides off into the sunset, he'll no doubt be happy to be rid of the "cursed" No. 10 jersey and the many headaches it's presented him over the last two years.

In his final 12 months in the role, Schmidt was forced to roll through nine fly-halves. It's a roll call of names that have attempted to make the starting role their own but have either been struck down through injury or discarded as they simply couldn't prove themselves on the Test stage.

While Noah Lolesio was the man in charge heading into the 2025 season, a freak injury against Fiji to start the year had Schmidt thinking on the fly. Tom Lynagh soon came in and was skilful against the British and Irish Lions before he was struck with injury. Then came James O'Connor, Hamish Stewart, Tane Edmed, Carter Gordon, Ben Donaldson, and finally Declan Meredith and Jock Campbell over the last fortnight.

While Meredith showed green shoots against Italy on Saturday, he's unlikely to be the playmaker steering the ship into the next World Cup, and while he'll be all the better for having Test match experience, Schmidt's decision not to recall Lolesio -- or James O'Connor who led the side to a famous victory over the Springboks last year -- for the France and Italy Tests has been heavily scrutinised -- especially as he and Campbell were out of their depth in the side's "soul-destroying" loss to France and Lolesio's experience on the Test stage.

The lack of continuity in such an important role will go down as a black mark on his tenure as he built a lethal attacking machine but failed to establish the conductor to operate it. If there's to be a bright side to the chaos, it's the knowledge Kiss will have a number of tested No. 10s to choose from -- if they remain healthy.

POTENTIAL THAT WAS NEVER FULLY REALISED

While former captain Stephen Moore's assessment of Schmidt's tenure as a "disappointment" is perhaps harsh, it can't be denied his time at the Wallabies failed to produce the results expected of a world class side.

We witnessed snippets of potential from the group when they came within minutes of forcing the British and Irish Lions series into a decider, before they blew them off the park a week later in Sydney. He conducted the side's drought breaking win over England at Twickenham and another when Australia came from 22-0 down against the Springboks to end a 62-year drought in Johannesburg.

But alongside the incredible, galvanising victories came just as many heartbreaking defeats -- two within the last month. A lack of depth on the bench the clear issue, with the side's recent second half fade aways opening the door for their opposition, while costly brain fades make it clear it's still a young side finding its feet in the Test arena.

With 15 months until a home World Cup, Kiss has been handed a solid foundation to work with and even more stars to bolster the group with the return of Mark Nawaqanitawase, and signing of NRL star Angus Crichton, but he must go one step further than Schmidt: turning the Wallabies' moments of brilliance to consistent performances.