Are you excited for NFL Week 7? 'Thursday Night Football' between Bears QB Caleb Williams and Patriots QB Drake Maye is a great "future of the league" contest. Bengals at Ravens will always be a banger ... if QB Lamar Jackson is active. Chiefs at Seahawks on Sunday night will either right the Seattle ship or make the alarm bells scream.
Every Tuesday of the NFL season, I'll turn the page from the previous week to the upcoming one with seven things I think. These aren't full-scale predictions. They aren't concrete takeaways from the past week of NFL action, either; those are fired off Sunday or Monday. Instead, these are the uncertain topics. They are things that might be true, but it'll probably take the next few games to find out. And at the bottom, you'll find a few extra half-thoughts ... just those little inklings I'm unable to shake.
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This week, I'll start with some reactions to the biggest Monday news -- Jalen Hurts being placed on season-ending injured reserve and the firing of Colts general manager Chris Ballard -- before peeking at what's going wrong in Los Angeles and what's going right in Cleveland, of all places.
Jump to:
Colts are right to keep Steichen
Eagles should make three trades
Williams should be MVP candidate but ...
Simmons for Defensive Player of Year
Cleveland is a QB away from contending
Stafford's age is starting to show
Some extra inklings
I think ... Carlie Irsay-Gordon was right to give Shane Steichen more time
The Colts (2-4) fired general manager Chris Ballard on Monday following their Week 6 loss to the Titans (1-5). That's the thing about home losses to winless divisional rivals: they spur swift corrective action.
Interestingly, head coach Shane Steichen was not fired midseason alongside Ballard. As owner Irsay-Gordon said in her statement released by the Colts: "This does not change our goals for this season. We have a lot of football in front of us, and I expect to compete, improve and win football games." There's a clear message to Steichen in this final line: that she is leaving the door open for him to coach his way into another year on the job.
Just how many wins that might take is unclear. ESPN's Football Power Index gives the 2-4 Colts an 8.8% chance to make the postseason -- something they have not done since 2020. Is Steichen's percent chance to save his job -- 1 in 12 -- about the same?
No matter the size of the crack in the door, I think this is a sharp call by Irsay-Gordon. While midseason coach firings shake up the game-day result more than midseason general manager firings, the primary brunt of the blame in Indianapolis rests with Ballard. Since Andrew Luck's' surprising retirement in 2019, the Colts have ridden a carousel of veteran stopgaps -- Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Gardner Minshew II and Daniel Jones -- with one huge swing-and-miss at the draft plate in Anthony Richardson Sr.
No matter the shocking context of Luck's early retirement, Ballard failed to solve the most important position in sports despite several more bites at the apple than the average general manager gets. To be fair, he got unlucky. Richardson's early-career injuries interrupted what was meant to be a long developmental arc. Jones was a wonderful hit in 2025 before injuries derailed his play as well.
Ballard extended his tenure with strong drafting, but even the success of that approach was overstated. The Colts constantly prioritized size and athleticism early at edge rusher and got burned for it (Dayo Odeyingbo, Kwity Paye, Laiatu Latu). Recent picks (CJ Allen, Justin Walley, Jaylahn Tuimoloau) needed to fill urgent holes have all become targets for opposing offenses. Even if Ballard is a relatively solid drafter, any guy calling the shots for a decade will accumulate a lot of misses -- and the Colts under Ballard have not been aggressive free agency spenders or traders to account for those gaps. At least not until last year, when Ballard's seat really started to get hot. Then he signed safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward and traded for cornerback Sauce Gardner. They were big and understandable swings given how dire his job security was. But it was too little, too late.
It was impossible to imagine putting Ballard in charge of another quarterback search. But it is not impossible to imagine handing whatever new quarterback the Colts find in 2027 or 2028 to Steichen. The work Steichen did in 2025 to precipitate not just great, but historically elite numbers from Jones and the offense is a bigger feather in his respective cap than anything Ballard achieved over a decade at the helm of the roster. Steichen remains one of the league's best coaches for optimal fourth-down decision making and clock management. He has been far from perfect -- he failed to develop Richardson. But so did 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan with Trey Lance. Steichen's overall body of work with Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia and Jones in Indianapolis outweighs the Richardson snafu.
So Steichen is good. But can he elevate this group to an acceptable level for ownership? See Irsay-Gordon's statement again: "Making this change during the season was a deliberate decision. Waiting would only delay the important work that needs to begin now." Is she alluding to the hard work of finding a new general manager or the work of moving contracts before the trade deadline on Nov. 10? Will Steichen be able to save his job coaching an offense without Quenton Nelson, who only has one year left on his deal and could be a trade target? Or without DeForest Buckner, the frustrated star defensive tackle who deserves a deep playoff run?
The best historical comparison for Steichen's current position is that of Jim Caldwell, who coached the Lions in 2015. General manager Martin Mayhew was fired after a 1-7 start and the expectation was that Caldwell would meet the same fate -- instead, Caldwell went 6-2 and kept the job for another two seasons. I'm not sure Steichen has the roster necessary to win 75% of his remaining games -- Matthew Stafford is not quarterbacking this team, folks -- even before the Colts start gutting the roster. Then again, I'm still not sure Steichen could possibly go 7-1 with Jones at quarterback, and that literally happened last year.
It's not worth predicting anything with Irsay-Gordon. She is a new owner and is clearly committed to doing things her way. We don't have a scouting report on her yet. But I'm glad she is giving Steichen the season to coach for his job, and I'm excited to see what desperation cooks up in Indianapolis over the next few months.
I think ... the following Eagles will be traded to the following teams
I expect the Eagles to trade away multiple players at the deadline. It's Howie Roseman! How could they not?
At 2-4 and with quarterback Jalen Hurts on injured reserve for the rest of the year, the season is lost. Sure, they have enough talent to finish 8-9 or 7-10 -- Tanner McKee is not a terrible backup, receiver DeVonta Smith is back in the starting lineup, running back Saquon Barkley (hamstring) and guard Landon Dickerson (knee) are soon to join him, and that defense remains ravenous. But Howie Roseman is not the sort of general manager to limp to 8-9 when there are big offseason decisions to be made.
Is Hurts still the franchise quarterback in Philadelphia? On "This is Football with Kevin Clark" last week, NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport openly wondered about the Eagles' plan for Hurts this offseason -- that was before blood clots in Hurts' leg and lungs ended his 2026 season. Is Nick Sirianni still the head coach in Philadelphia? He won a Super Bowl, but his inability to develop coaches and key game-management failures this season invite questions as to his job security.
Roseman has already dipped his toe into the reload waters by dealing center Cam Jurgens to the Ravens and receiver A.J. Brown to the Patriots over the past few months. In doing so, Roseman added an additional first-round pick and second-round pick in the 2028 draft -- the sort of capital that can quickly resupply a transitioning roster with competitive, rookie-contract starters. But that's two drafts away. And if the Eagles do explore changing their head coach or franchise quarterback, then 2027 capital will help them rebound faster.
If I were an opposing general manager, I'd be calling about everyone: Smith, offensive tackle Jordan Mailata, cornerback Quinyon Mitchell ... everyone. Some guys will be untouchable, but here's who I think has a legitimate shot to get moved and where they end up.
CB Riq Woolen to the Bears for a 2027 fourth-round pick
Woolen is one of the more interesting trade candidates in Philadelphia. The Eagles clearly intended to make Woolen a one-year player and recoup a compensatory draft pick for him next year after a strong season in Vic Fangio's defense. That plan hasn't gone entirely swimmingly -- Woolen's play has been up-and-down, and his penalty woes have continued. How confident are the Eagles in the comp pick they'll get for Woolen next year?
If a team comes calling with a strong enough offer, the Eagles can dodge the comp pick calculations and get value for Woolen now. That team might be the Bears, who should be desperate for cornerback help after what they saw the Packers do to Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson Sr. in Week 5. For as much man coverage as defensive coordinator Dennis Allen wants to play (34%, the fourth-highest rate in football per NFL Next Gen Stats), the cornerback play in Chicago needs to be stronger.
Woolen is at his best when his assignments are simple and he could use his elite blend of length, speed and transitional quickness to stick with WR1s in man-to-man. His propensity for penalties could be a playoff Achilles' heel, but if he runs pure in the postseason, he has the ceiling of a star player at a premium position. Something the Bears desperately need in the playoffs.
A fourth-round pick might be rich for Woolen, though the Bears could use the same comp pick logic as the Eagles and assume they can get some mid-Day 3 pick back for Woolen if they manipulate the formula correctly.
RB Saquon Barkley to the Texans for a 2027 third-round pick, a 2027 fifth-round pick, a 2028 second-round pick and RB Woody Marks
Would the Eagles really trade Barkley? It feels bold, but if there's a general manager willing to get out a year early instead of a year late on a 29-year-old running back, it's certainly Roseman. When Roseman invested in Barkley in 2024 free agency, he was doing so with contention in mind -- adding a final key piece to an offense that had a dominant offensive line and dominant wide receiver play. Now, in fall 2026, with a rebuild in mind, how likely is Barkley to remain a prime player the next time the Eagles are ready for playoff football?
I waffle on this. Barkley could be a huge boon to a rookie-contract quarterback if they move on from Hurts. But the offensive line will need addressing first, as might wide receiver. I think the Eagles will say Barkley isn't unavailable so that acquiring teams are compelled to send that can't-refuse offer. Remember: Barkley, if traded, would hit the Eagles with about $26.5 million in dead cap in 2027 ... on top of the $27.1 million Brown has already left behind. That's a big hurdle to overcome.
I could see a few contenders doing it. The Seahawks came to mind, as did the Packers and the Vikings. But I love the idea of GM Nick Caserio, fresh off the Marvin Harrison Jr. deal, doubling down on the offense and adding Barkley to a backfield that he has yet to solve in Houston. The Texans are once again on pace to have a bottom-5 rushing attack, but Barkley has the talent behind the line of scrimmage to help cover for a shaky interior offensive line group. By forcing opposing defenses to play more heavy boxes by formation and by the presence of Barkley, the 2-4 Texans could pull further defensive attention away from receiver Nico Collins and field an offense really worthy of a comeback run into the playoffs.
DT Moro Ojomo to the 49ers for a 2027 fifth-round pick and a 2028 fourth-round pick (can become a conditional third)
A lesser known name outside of Philadelphia, Ojomo is as Milton Williams was a couple of years ago: the third DT behind Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis who absolutely feasts in rotational snaps. Ojomo has a 10.6% pressure rate on the season per Next Gen Stats, well above the league average for defensive tackles (7.9%) and first among all Eagles defensive tackles. He's also a splashy player against the run -- suffers some over-pursuit losses but also creates tackles for loss and run stops with his penetration.
Ojomo, should he hit free agency next year, would likely sign a deal worth a third-round compensatory pick. But if an acquiring team can secure his services now (likely with a big extension) without bidding against other suitors, there might be interest. The 49ers make a world of sense to me. They have another trade acquisition in Osa Odighizuwa and a Day 3 rookie in Gracen Halton who have both been sowing admirable chaos, but 2025 draftees C.J. West and Alfred Collins have both disappointed in their play and their availability.
Ojomo would become another rotational piece that allows Keion White to spend more time on the edge and builds out a deep pass rush rotation once Nick Bosa returns from his knee and calf injuries. To account for the Eagles' third-round pick plans, the 49ers could attach a pick with conditions in 2028, such that if Ojomo dominates as expected in an increased role, the Eagles will get stronger compensation for him.
I think ... Caleb Williams will end up an MVP candidate who missed too much time
The Bears beat the Falcons 31-23 on Sunday. Lost in a near-epic late-game collapse from the Bears, who led 31-7 in the fourth quarter, was the quietly dominant performance of Williams, who went 30-for-36 for 305 yards and a score. Williams has played just under three full games on the season and has totaled 113 dropbacks. He has completed 72.5% of his passes, leading the entire league (minimum 100 dropbacks) and exceeding the lofty 70% completion percentage goal head coach Ben Johnson set for him in preseason.
I piloted this take yesterday on my ESPN podcast "Leaguewide" and was reminded by ESPN senior NFL national reporter Dan Graziano yesterday of 2022 Jalen Hurts. As of Week 14, he had become the betting favorite to win MVP over Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles were 12-1 in his starts. He was completing 68% of his passes, had thrown 22 touchdowns to 3 interceptions and rushed for another 686 yards and 10 touchdowns. Then he got hurt in Week 15 -- a sprained throwing shoulder against (funnily enough) the Chicago Bears. He missed two weeks of the season and eventually lost the regular-season MVP award to Mahomes.
Hurts played in 15 of 17 possible games, and in a wicked tight MVP race, that unavailability was the difference. In the race for value, it's reasonable that availability should matter. The most valuable player of any given season wasn't just the one who played the best, but also played the best over a consistently high volume of snaps. Looking back over the history of the award, the last quarterback to win MVP despite missing more than one start was 2003 Steve McNair, who shared the award with Colts QB Peyton Manning (both got 16 AP votes).
It's not that a quarterback is particularly punished for missing time -- it's that we're usually splitting hairs between two or three passers late in the MVP push, and missed games can impact those tiny divisions. McNair, like Hurts, missed his time in December -- perhaps Williams, who missed his games in September and October, will benefit from short memories if he finishes the season on a tear. In 1989, Joe Montana won the MVP in a landslide after missing three games intermittently with a knee injury. He also statistically dominated his contemporaries in a way Williams is unlikely to. San Francisco QB Brock Purdy is going to keep putting up video game numbers, as is Bills QB Josh Allen.
Williams hasn't put up those numbers yet because he has played in too few games and because one of those games was a contest against Vikings defensive guru Brian Flores in the rain. But if he continues to play as high-percentage ball while adding the playmaking ability afforded by his legs and authoring a couple of heroic late-game throws in high-leverage spots, then he's going to look like an MVP by December. And we will all be forced to reconcile with the missed games and whatever other narratives have developed about the other candidates since.
Every MVP race is different. (Nobody cared about strength of schedule this time last season! Then Drake Maye entered the chat.) Don't be surprised if this one, for both Williams and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson, pushes minor early-season injuries into the foreground of the conversation.
I think ... Jeffery Simmons is the Defensive Player of the Year
Through six weeks of the NFL season, there is no defensive lineman creating more value against the run than Simmons. By run stop EPA -- a Next Gen Stats measurement of just how valuable every player's successful tackles against the run were -- Simmons' 20 run stops have generated a minus-15.2 EPA. That's not just better than every other defensive lineman in football -- it's better than all but 10 linebackers, too.
Through six weeks of the NFL season, there is no defensive tackle bringing more pressure than Simmons. With seven on the day against the Colts, he passed Gervon Dexter Sr. for most raw QB pressures (26) -- by pressure rate, he's only fifth (13.1%). Ho hum.
Think about that for a second: elite performance on run and pass downs at a high snap count to boot -- only the Eagles' Jalen Carter (340) has more snaps than Simmons' 339 among defensive tackles. There's no doubt that Dexter Lawrence II has been transformative to the Bengals defense, or that Leonard Williams and Byron Murphy II are perfect for and excellent at their roles in Seattle. But Simmons is the best defensive tackle in football, and I'm not sure how you can reasonably argue that.
The Titans don't beat the Colts on Sunday without Simmons; I'm not sure they are capable of winning a game without a superhero performance from Simmons. To open the third quarter, Simmons ripped the ball from Colts running back Jonathan Taylor -- generally a safe ball carrier -- and recovered it himself to set up the Titans' first scoring drive of the day.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 20, 2026
Later in the second half, it was Simmons' pressure on Daniel Jones that hastened the quarterback into a bad decision, sailing an easy interception to Cor'Dale Flott in the red zone. That's 2025 second-team All-Pro Quenton Nelson he's tossing to the ground on the twist.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 20, 2026
What's really incredible to watch is how much offensive attention Simmons commands. ESPN numbers have Simmons with the seventh-highest double-team rate in football (88%) and the second-highest pass rush win rate when doubled (27%). The Colts were constantly sliding toward Simmons, which allowed Titans coach Robert Saleh to call up blitzes opposite Simmons' side and utilize his gravity. Watch this Simmons sack in which the Colts slide the line over to Simmons as he's loaded to the same side as fellow pass rushing defensive tackle John Franklin-Myers. As the right guard follows Simmons, the right tackle and back are left accounting for three rushers. The blitzing safety runs free, and Simmons is there to clean up the trash in the pocket.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 20, 2026
It will be hard for Simmons to actually win Defensive Player of the Year over the Texans' Will Anderson Jr., as edge rushers simply accumulate more counting stats than defensive tackles do. No defensive tackle save for Aaron Donald (three times) has won the award since 1999. Simmons is on a tear, but without Donald's name recognition, his current production is likely not enough. If Tennessee can build on this game and continue to get strong pass rush from Franklin-Myers (seven pressures) and Jermaine Johnson II (six pressures), perhaps Simmons' sack rate can leap into legitimate DPOY stratospheres.
But even for as good as Anderson is ... the Texans have other defensive stars. That defense is as predicated on the talent of Danielle Hunter and Derek Stingley Jr. as it is Anderson's. Simmons is the lone keystone of the Titans' defensive efforts. Without him -- his consistent pressure, his playmaking instinct and his gravity -- they wouldn't have an identity and they wouldn't have a prayer. That's the hallmark of a Defensive Player of the Year in my book.
I think ... the Browns are a quarterback away from contending
Full transparency: This was not originally my take. ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes had said it preseason based on the young talent on offense -- five new starters on the offensive line, two rookie receivers drafted and sophomore players in running back Quinshon Judkins and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. ready to take the leap.
Through six weeks in the season, I'm there. Judkins has been the leading rusher (he missed Week 6 with an ankle injury) with Fannin and rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion leading receivers in Cleveland despite a quieter performance vs. the Ravens.
The Browns' offense remains inert largely because of the quarterback. Watson has occasionally bright drives, but game-to-game is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. He's fourth in interception/sack rate per dropback at 11.8%, third worst in explosive pass rate at 9.1% and second worst in completion percentage over expectation. The Browns' offensive line is a major weak point -- Watson has the fourth-highest pressure rate among all quarterbacks (40.0%), and the Browns' rushing attack is the worst in the league by success rate (34.4%). Were Watson a younger quarterback, I'd say we need to see him play in a better pocket before we draw sweeping conclusions.
But I've seen him play for several seasons, and I know this is what he is: not accurate, quick to worsen a muddy pocket and not nearly the same athlete on the move he was before two tears to his right Achilles tendon.
Here was a frustrating play from Sunday against the Ravens. It's a 10-10 ball game with 3:45 left. The Browns have a third-and-8 -- a first down here allows them to eat more clock away from Baltimore while also potentially scoring seven instead of settling for three.
Watson has a speed out to Concepcion at the bottom of the screen. The Ravens are initially in a pressure look, but with the safety so far off of Concepcion and the nickel bluffing a blitz, Concepcion has great leverage for the out so long as the outside corner (Nate Wiggins) doesn't trap the route. This completion sets up a short fourth-down conversion opportunity at the worst -- if Concepcion can wiggle free from the nickel, it's a first down.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 20, 2026
This ball should be out to Concepcion every single time. Watson looks at it and elects instead to work backside -- a poor choice, in that all those mugged up players will be dropping between the hashes anyway. Unsurprisingly, nothing is open. He ends up inviting pressure and narrowly escaping a sack that would have put the Browns into tougher field goal range. (They ended up missing the kick anyway.)
It's clear that the Browns' offense can be much, much better with improved quarterback play. It's also apparent that the Browns can still win games without great quarterback play -- they're 4-2 atop the AFC North -- thanks in large part to the play of their defense.
What a group! Few units have been a more pleasant surprise than the Browns' defense, which lost famed defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz and reigning defensive player of the year Myles Garrett in the same offseason. Even Jared Verse, acquired in the Garrett trade, has underwhelmed relative to expectations. Denzel Ward might still be a star corner, but from where else would the production come?
Everywhere. Second-year linebacker Carson Schwesinger has picked up precisely where he left off last season. He makes plays everywhere with an All-Pro blend of physical quickness and processing speed -- he is rarely late and rarely wrong, and in the rare cases he's late or fooled, he can get back into the play quickly. It was his strip of Derrick Henry in the fourth quarter that created the short field on which the Browns scored their lone touchdown.
Veteran defensive tackle Maliek Collins has been a force on the interior, especially in the absence of second-year player Mason Graham (left knee/ankle) and third-year player Mike Hall Jr., who were both playing their own solid ball before injuries struck. Veteran linebacker Quincy Williams, reunited with defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg from their days together with the Jets, has looked like his old self, equal in speed and physicality to Schwesinger. The safety trio of Grant Delpit, Ronnie Hickman and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren is a versatile group with serious size and stopping power at the point of attack.
Rutenberg's unit simply gets it. They pass off routes and attack tendencies like a well-coached defense. They tackle in space and rally to the ball like a well-coached defense. They don't sit back on their heels and let the offense dictate but instead go after weak quarterbacks like a well-coached defense. I'm cognizant of the strength of schedule faced so far -- since they got ripped apart by Trevor Lawrence in Week 1, they've played Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Aaron Rodgers, Geno Smith and Tyler 'Snoop' Huntley -- but I'm confident in the film. This is a good group.
Good defense. Good offense. Someone get these guys a quarterback!
I think ... J.J. McCarthy should start for the Giants the rest of the way
I continue to struggle to figure out two things. The first is: Who is going to win the NFC East? The Cowboys, somehow, at 2-4 ... are still the enormous favorite at 66.9% by FPI's projections. The Giants are at 13.2% at 3-2-1.
The second is: Should any level of confidence in an NFC East victory even change the Giants' plans for this season? In Year 1 under John Harbaugh and with Jaxson Dart on injured reserve for the regular season, the Giants should be focused on building culture, identifying core young players for the following season and thinking about the future of the franchise quarterback spot.
That franchise quarterback will never be Winston. Winston is 32 years old and, as we've seen over the past few games, does not have the sort of game that ages well. Reckless pocket passing is a perilous play style with a strong arm. As velocity diminishes, it becomes untenable. Winston has even bigger accuracy sprays than normal as he tries to access ball speed he no longer has. At his best, he's beating the Commanders in the fourth quarter. At his worst, he's sailing terrible picks against the Saints. At his age, this is not going to get better and it certainly doesn't foster development.
Winston was benched in the fourth quarter for trade acquisition J.J. McCarthy, who is much younger and (at this stage in their respective careers) more physically gifted -- he has as good of an arm, but with far superior movement skills. Winston has no chance of being a long-term answer at quarterback, but McCarthy has a shot, however slim it might be.
As I wrote in this column at the time of the trade: "Quarterback reclamation, while more common in recent years, is a finicky process. It has mostly happened in the Sean McVay/Kyle Shanahan systems (that's not what New York runs), and it usually happens after a couple of years in the family, too. McCarthy is a midseason acquisition away from that coaching tree. Getting out of Minnesota and turning his career to a fresh page was the first step on a long path to return to relevancy. I'm not ruling it out -- it's a crazy league -- but I'm not holding my breath for it."
McCarthy showed why his traits are worth continued curiosity Sunday. On the first play of the potential tying drive, McCarthy slipped an unblocked pressure and ran up-field for 28 yards -- the longest run of his career.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 20, 2026
After the spike, he hit TE Isaiah Likely on an over route in a nonexistent window. It's the sort of throw he might only try in a no-lose situation late in the fourth quarter, but by God it was the best ball I've ever seen him throw. And just like that, the Giants were in range to tie the game.
Best throw I've ever seen J.J. McCarthy make? pic.twitter.com/ailHCd16WP
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 19, 2026
Did things end on another field-of-play completion (horrible call from Matt Nagy) and a failed fourth-and-1 scramble drill? Absolutely. Did McCarthy start his garbage time with a pick? You betchya. Two plays do not signal a career recovery. I harbor no lofty expectations for McCarthy's play in 2026.
But the guy was a top-10 draft pick in 2024 for a reason. There are sufficient tools here for starting quarterback play, and it is a reasonable assumption to make that McCarthy will be better outside of Minnesota, where off-field frustration and narratives had a big impact on his growth. In much the same way that the Ravens tried to get one more play off against the Cowboys and ended up winning the game because of it, the Giants would be well served going for that one-in-a-thousand shot that McCarthy can end this season a serviceable starting quarterback worth backing up Dart, challenging him for a starting job or trading in the 2027 offseason. I'm not sure they have much else better to do with their year but that.
I think ... Matthew Stafford is getting old
What's wrong with the Rams? What's wrong with the Rams?!
Not much.
Let's check on offensive health. The Rams are 16th in points, but 12th in EPA per play, sixth in success rate and seventh in series conversion rate. That's an above-average offense right there. The down-to-down metrics, like success rate and series conversion rate, are relatively comparable to 2025's seasonlong output. The biggest swing is in explosive play rate, where neither the run nor the pass game are creating as big of gains as they did last season.
Where have the explosive plays gone? As Bill Barnwell wrote in his column Monday on the Rams' 2-4 start, Stafford's completion percentage over expectation on deep passes was plus-5.8% in 2025 -- one of the league's highest marks -- to minus-8.5% in 2026. That's an enormous swing, and into that drop-off go many of the Rams' biggest gains. So far, it seems like a small sample issue to me, not the result of declining arm strength.
There's an easy trap to fall into here -- where we compare 2025 to 2026 and try to figure out what's missing from last year. It can make it hard to step back and see the whole picture; what has been missing since before 2025, but was covered up and is now finally getting exposed.
Stafford can't move. He was never the most mobile quarterback, but the Rams were willing to use him on boots in the past. In 2024, 16.8% of Stafford's pass attempts were on the run -- an above-average number! That fell to 13.9% in 2025 and is down to 9.6% in 2026. Sure, designed rollouts are down -- but it isn't just that. Stafford has zero scrambling passing yards on the season per Next Gen Stats. He has yet to break the pocket and complete a pass on a scramble drill. The last quarterback to log no scramble passing yards through six weeks of a season was 2022 Tom Brady -- the final season of a pocket passing titan.
Nobody is going to stand here and argue that the Rams' passing offense was good in 2025 because of Stafford's scrambling ability. But without second-reaction plays from the quarterback, an offense cannot easily recover once broken. So much of the Bills' offensive design is predicated on the idea that Josh Allen can do spectacular things within and outside of structure. It's built into how they pass protect and how they distribute routes. The same is true of the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. And not just the elite quarterbacks. It affected how Kliff Kingsbury called offense for Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels, and also Jaxson Dart under Brian Daboll.
The base structure of the Rams' offense is largely as it was. It has lost a little bit on the margins -- bad tackle play, Puka Nacua's absence, Terrance Ferguson's injury -- but has not been attacked specifically at those weak points. Rather, defenses are attacking Stafford on the boots to force him to make quick plays on the run. They're folding the pocket in and making him play from bad platforms. It's not dissimilar to how defenses once treated Jared Goff in this system and still treat him to this day in Detroit. If we know he can't burn us on the move, let's make him move.
— Good Clips (@MeshSitWheel) October 20, 2026
This is where we can go back to the 2025 season and find something worth projecting into 2026. In his 2025 MVP season, Stafford was 27th among 38 quarterbacks in EPA per pressured dropback. (He was fourth in unpressured dropback.) Defenses clearly spent the offseason studying what could break this Rams' passing attack and figured it was the immobility of an aging quarterback -- not a tough conclusion, but a notable one as the Rams look for answers on offense. Consider this past week against Nick Rallis, the Cardinals defensive coordinator who the Rams and Stafford fried for 45 and 37 points in two contests last season. Rallis walked out this year with a blitz rate of 40% -- the Cardinals averaged 31% in 2025 -- and forced Stafford into a checkdown, screen-heavy game plan. His average depth of target (4.8 yards) was the third lowest of any game in his Rams tenure.
Opposing defenses will continue making Stafford's lack of escapability a pressure point in Los Angeles until he goes back to punishing them with big downfield connections or Sean McVay finds a schematic counterpunch to the weakness in the pocket.
Five things I might think
I might think ... George Pickens is a trade candidate. His effort level and focus seem to be waning again, and the Cowboys will struggle to pay Pickens and cornerback Joey Porter Jr., whom they recently traded for. If the 2-4 Cowboys keep losing games, I'd call Pickens on the franchise tag for the remainder of the season -- we know he has game-breaking ability when he's dialed in. Imagine Pickens in Los Angeles to help replace Davante Adams ... or in Kansas City as Mahomes' new downfield target? Exciting stuff.
I might think ... A.J. Brown will be fine. Brown clearly got in his own head about the drops and was also a little rusty on the ankle in his first game back since suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 1. After the spiral Drake Maye was in to start the season, there's no funk that a Patriot could enter that I wouldn't believe in Mike Vrabel's ability to unspool. Brown is going to get back into form over the next month or so. The offensive line injuries? That's another matter entirely.
I might think ... the Texans WR call is coming from inside the house. Kayshon Boutte was acquired in August. Marvin Harrison Jr. was acquired last week. Meanwhile, the best game I've seen from a non-Nico Collins receiver in Houston this year is the four-catch, 107-yard game Jaylin Noel put together against the Jaguars. He has wiggle from the slot, legit speed in the open air and great tracking. Every time he touches the ball, he makes something happen. I'd get him more snaps.
I might think ... Josh Allen is a spellcaster. Look at this. This should not be allowed. It's magical and worrisome.
How did Josh Allen make this TD pass to Keon Coleman? BUFvsLV on CBS/Paramount+ Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/CNLw6KW2tC
— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026
I might think ... the entire NFC North will make the playoffs. Listen, if the Seahawks lose to the Chiefs in Week 7 -- very possible! -- then the second-best team in the other three NFC divisions will have a losing record at the end of Week 7. Meanwhile, if the Lions beat the Packers in Week 7 -- very possible! -- every single NFC North team will have a winning record. I'm just saying there's a chance!