The NBL's Next Stars program has never been a fixed proposition.
It launched in 2018 as an answer to the NCAA's amateurism, offering elite teenage prospects a salary and a defined pathway to the NBA draft, and it was rewarded as LaMelo Ball and Josh Giddey - both top-six picks in 2020 and 2021 - proved the concept to be a success. When the G League Ignite was created and began to chase a lot of the same top prospects, the Next Stars program opened its doors to Europe, sending Ousmane Dieng and Rayan Rupert through the New Zealand Breakers and into the draft. Ignite folded after the 2023-24 season, with the NBA citing NIL as a reason. That same season, Next Stars produced the No. 2 pick, Alexandre Sarr.
We're now right in the thick of the next shift, which comes from college basketball itself, with players now able to earn a substantial amount of money from their name, image, and likeness. The very top college packages can now rival an entire NBL salary cap, so endeavouring to compete financially is almost a non-starter; instead, the league has chosen a different approach. Next Stars general manager Liam Santamaria - who runs the program with the NBL's COO and Head of Basketball, Vince Crivelli - frames the response as yet another expansion to a program that's demonstrated to be quite malleable to market forces.
"It's a legitimate, proven pathway to the NBA with the history of guys being drafted straight out of the Next Stars program but, now with the opportunities that exist in the NCAA landscape, we're broadening the pathway to include that type of avenue as well," Santamaria told ESPN.
Ask him to describe the Next Stars program, and he calls it "an elite pathway for top young prospects from around the world." That definition seems almost deliberately elastic. There's no specific league, country, or even destination offered; the premise of the program remains - utilising NBL teams and the league as a whole to prime young players for the next phase of their journey - but the next destination is necessarily flexible.
Broadening is the word Santamaria keeps coming back to.
"By adjusting the contracting and helping guys make sure they're not earning over and above actual and necessary expenses, there's no element of that which is a pivot," he said. "It's more broadening the pathway rather than pivoting it."
Luke Paul is the clearest example of the program's broadened pathway in action.
The 6'6 Australian point guard became the youngest Next Star in the program's history when he signed in January - at just 16 years of age - before joining the Cairns Taipans heading into the 2026-27 NBL season. As he wouldn't be draft eligible until 2028, the expectation was that it would be a two-year stint in the program. The history-making aside, that set of circumstances was, practically speaking, standard operating procedure for the program. Until it was no longer. On October 1, Paul announced on ESPN's NBA Today that he'll join Duke University for the 2027-28 season. He projects as a lottery pick in the 2028 NBA draft.
When the Taipans brought him in, head coach Adam Forde spoke about a two-year plan to make Paul NBA-ready. That all changed when Paul committed to Duke, making it one season in Far North Queensland, before he heads to Durham, North Carolina for what he's hoping is a one-and-done season. But, what's important to note is that the NBL wasn't blindsided by that college commitment. College was always a likely option, given the sort of high-money offers Paul would naturally garner from powerhouse college programs.
"From the outset, the mentality in bringing Luke in as a Next Star was 'hey, we're here to support you on your journey, no matter what that looks like moving forward'," Santamaria said.
"If two years in the NBL is going to be best for you, then great; we're ready, willing, able, and committed to supporting you. If the Next Stars program is going to help launch you to one of the top collegiate programs in the world, great; we're ready to support you in that regard as well."
Paul earned All-Star Five honours at the FIBA U17 World Cup in July, missed the NBL pre-season with an ankle injury, worked his way into Forde's rotation, and has since been promoted to the starting lineup. When ESPN spoke to Santamaria, Paul was coming off a win in Perth - his hometown, and where he was unveiled as a Next Star in January - in front of friends and family.
"I think it serves as a terrific case study," Santamaria said. "It's an example for young Australian, New Zealand, and international players to say: developing in an NBL environment, using the professional setting and the platform to help launch you towards wherever is best for you next, can be a great step for you.
"There's always a desire to evolve and stay flexible within the global landscape and what's going on," he added.
It's worth explaining just how big the change within the college landscape is.
The NCAA has historically run on amateurism but, since 2021, college athletes have been allowed to earn money from their name, image, and likeness - known colloquially as NIL - through endorsements, sponsorships, and booster-funded groups. In 2025, a court settlement went further, letting schools pay players directly for the first time, with each school able to share up to roughly US$20.5 million a year.
The result is that top college programs now spend millions on their rosters. A Next Stars contract used to be the paid option en route to the NBA Draft; for elite prospects, it no longer is.
The NBL's answer has been to change how it writes contracts. Under NCAA rules, a prospect can play in a professional environment and retain eligibility, provided they aren't paid beyond what the NCAA terms "actual and necessary expenses."
"That's the key focus for players, whether they're in the NBL as DPs, as Next Stars, or as contracted players," Santamaria said. "If they want to maintain their NCAA eligibility, they need to ensure they're not earning over and above actual and necessary expenses.
"That's essentially part of the evolution of the program for us in recent times, to assist players through our contracting to make sure they maintain their NCAA eligibility in that fashion."
That's what makes Paul's case instructive. Expect more high-school-aged prospects to follow that route, using the program's professional environment to expedite their development before progressing into the collegiate system, where the financial pull is so great.
That doesn't mean, however, that the program is ready to cede its ground as one of the last decade's more prolific pathways to the NBA. Yes, existing in the NIL era makes that a more challenging proposition than it once was - the money is now in college, and some prospects who once would've chosen the NBL as their pathway to the draft will now take a college detour first - but being a program that now prepares athletes for college is regarded internally as a broadening of Next Stars, and not a full-blown pivot.
"You can't escape the history of the program in assisting players in that way," Santamaria said of the program remaining a pathway to the NBA.
"Next Stars have been selected in each of the past seven NBA drafts; seven of those guys in the first round, 13 across that time."
The most recent first-rounder was Karim Lopez, who went No. 21 overall in June after two seasons with the Breakers, becoming the first Mexican-born player ever taken in the first round.
Lopez's name also speaks to something bigger, in that he's an example of what the program has done for the NBL's standing abroad.
To much of the basketball world, the NBL is the league Ball, Giddey, Sarr, and Lopez passed through on their way to the NBA, and where Dash Daniels and Paul are playing now. It's not dissimilar to how Serbia's Mega Basket, Germany's ratiopharm Ulm, or Slovenia's Cedevita Olimpija are viewed in Europe, in that they're clubs whose global profile is largely built upon the prospects they've helped launch into the NBA.
That relevance has opened a heap of doors. NBL teams have played NBA and EuroLeague opposition, an NBA team has played in Australia, NBL games now stream on the NBA app, and the league's broadcast footprint continues to grow internationally. Next Stars isn't solely responsible for any of it, but the popularity of the players that have come through the program has undoubtedly played a meaningful role.
It's one of the primary reasons why the NBA pathway of the program can't be allowed to wither, even as the college route opens up.
"Essentially, the opportunity for players now coming into the Next Stars program, you have a world of opportunities as you develop through the program for where you go next," Santamaria said.
"Depending on your age, you might go straight to the NBA Draft, like all those players before you. Or, if it's going to be the next best step for your development and for the financial opportunities that exist there, the opportunity to transition to the NCAA will be there for you as well. And the opportunity to come back for a second year as a Next Star will be in place as well, like Alex Toohey, and Malique Lewis, and others have used over the journey."
Both of the program's current Next Stars - Paul at 17 and Daniels at 18 - are starters for their respective teams, and Daniels is in the midst of the best season of his young professional career with the South East Melbourne Phoenix.
The plan is for the program to remain one that aids in the development of some of the top prospects coming through Australia and New Zealand. New South Wales born guard Antonio Browne, who played alongside Paul at the U17 World Cup, is someone the program has strong interest in, with those discussions expected to pick up steam in the near future. The Adelaide 36ers' new development player, Raheim "RJ" Brown Jr. - who is still just 16 - is also someone Santamaria sees as the type of talent that may eventually absorb into the Next Stars program. Another name that is less firm at this stage, but one that the program is monitoring, is New South Wales guard Riley Saville.
There's also a wave of interest from those in the international space to follow in the footsteps of the likes of Sarr, Dieng, and Rupert in the program.
"There's been a desire from the international market for us to adapt our contracting so prospects can come in, use the platform, develop in the environment, but also maintain their NCAA eligibility," Santamaria said. "And now that we've been able to demonstrate that with Luke, there's heightened interest from agents in exploring the pathway for this next crop of 2009- and 2010-born prospects internationally."
Whoever comes next will enter a program that has already shapeshifted twice in eight years and is built to keep doing so.
"The idea of the program is to best benefit the player in their development," Santamaria said. "What we're trying to do now is make sure they have flexibility and opportunities moving forward as they assess what's going to be best for them."