After back-to-back wins for the U.S. men's national team to start the 2026 World Cup -- the first time it has won two straight World Cup games since 1930 -- the knockout rounds await.
The U.S. has not only clinched their spot in the round of 32, but they have also secured first in Group D, meaning their path through the tournament is starting to come into focus.
Still, much remains to be decided, and the USMNT's possible matchups in the first knockout round could range from lopsided to too close for comfort. From there, it only gets tougher: in the modern World Cup, the U.S. has only made it past the round of 16 once, and that was 24 years ago.
That's why ESPN will be bringing you regularly updated permutations, odds and projections that will follow the likely U.S. path through the World Cup -- including what teams the Americans could end up facing. Stick around and bookmark this page for the latest.
USMNT scenarios and permutations: What is the team's path through the World Cup?
The U.S. already clinched a spot in the knockout rounds by following up a 4-1 win over Paraguay with a 2-0 victory against Australia -- but Türkiye's loss to Paraguay later on Friday sealed it: the U.S. will top Group D, regardless of what happens in the final games of the group stage.
With that, we know when and where the Americans will play their round-of-32 match: Wednesday, July 1 at 8 p.m. ET, at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
(A potential bonus: The USMNT will stay on the west coast after its group games in Los Angeles and Seattle. A worse finish in Group D could've sent them on longer road trips to Massachusetts, New Jersey, Texas or Kansas.)
The USMNT's opponent in the round of 32: This is more complicated, and we probably won't know for sure until the group stage is complete because of the elaborate seeding system for third-place teams.
Not only are all 12 group winners and 12 second-place teams advancing to the knockout rounds, but also the eight best third-place teams. The third-place teams will be decided by these criteria, in order:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Team conduct score
5. FIFA world ranking
In other words, if two teams are tied on points, the team with the higher goal difference will be ranked higher, and so on down the list of tiebreakers.
The way the bracket is set up, the U.S. could face the third-place team from any of five groups: B, E, F, I or J:
Group B: Canada, Switzerland, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Qatar
Group E: Germany, Ivory Coast, Ecuador, Curacao
Group F: Sweden, Japan, Netherlands, Tunisia
Group I: Norway, France, Senegal, Iraq
Group J: Argentina, Austria, Jordan, Algeria
But let's say some or all of these groups end up with an advancing third-place team, how will we know which specific one will face the U.S.? Well, before the tournament, FIFA published a table of 495 possible permutations, so all the other results of the rest of the tournament will essentially decide. Take our word for it: it's complicated.
Bottom line: we'll need to see how the final group games play out to know the USMNT's round-of-32 opponent.
USMNT betting odds: How sportsbooks think the Americans will do
Even if you aren't into betting, the odds set by sportsbooks can be a pretty decent gauge of where the U.S. stands in the tournament. After all, oddsmakers have a financially vested interest in getting their World Cup guesses right so they can set betting lines accordingly.
With that, here's where DraftKings puts the U.S. following their wins over Paraguay and Australia:
Odds to win the World Cup: +3500, or 35-to-1 odds.
That's an improvement over the +6000 the U.S. was at before the tournament began, or the +4000 odds from before the U.S. beat Australia. But at +3500, it still is an implied probability of less than 3%. (So, they are saying there's a chance!)
Next up, the USMNT faces Türkiye in Group D on June 25. Here are the USMNT's betting odds vs. Türkiye:
Win: +150, or an implied probability of 38% when you remove the sportsbook's cut
Draw: +285, 25% implied probability
Lose: +160, 37% implied probability
USMNT projections: How data models see the World Cup playing out
If you don't want to listen to the gambling sharks, how about the data nerds? There are several models out there trying to predict the 2026 World Cup, but we like one from DTAI Sports Analytics Lab out of KU Leuven, a research university in Belgium.
Its projection model is based on an Elo rating system, which ranks every team by recent results, the scoreline of those results and the strength of the opponent. It layers that with an offense and defense rating that assesses how many goals a team should be expected to score or concede against an average opponent.
So, here's how the DTAI model projects the U.S. against Türkiye:
Win: 25%
Draw: 30%
Loss: 45%
But hey, World Cups aren't won or lost based on probabilities and predictions. The games have to be played, and anything can happen. We'll be following along, so stay tuned.