I'm getting a little more specific with what I trust in Week 11. I like New Mexico to make UNLV miserable, but I don't want the Lobos' scoring tied to my ticket. I'm looking for points in Cincinnati-Iowa State and a lot fewer in Tennessee-Texas A&M.
Throw in a home underdog, a couple of quarterback questions and one running back's status worth watching ... and we've got ourselves a card.
Here's what I have for this week.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
UNLV team total UNDER 16.5 (-115) at New Mexico
I liked the full-game under, but UNLV's total is what I trust the most here, as New Mexico will be making life difficult for QB Jackson Arnold. I don't need to worry about how many points the Lobos put up against a run defense that Wyoming and Air Force just shredded.
New Mexico stops a third of opposing runs at or behind the line, which threatens Rebels RB Jai'Den Thomas, but also Arnold's ability to pick up yards himself.. If UNLV can't get anything going on the ground, Arnold has to throw against a defense allowing successful passes only a third of the time while allowing just five total touchdowns at home this season. New Mexico has allowed the fewest touchdowns this season, tied with Indiana. That's a tough defense to face in order to keep drives alive.
The Lobos also take their time on offense. If they can run on UNLV and burn the clock, the Rebels get fewer chances to figure things out. A big pass could hurt, but I'd rather bet against UNLV doing this repeatedly.
Cincinnati at Iowa State OVER 59.5 points
The drop from 61 to 59.5 makes the over more interesting, but Bearcats RB Cole Tabb is the one to monitor. He has 10 rushing touchdowns so far this season and reportedly participated in walkthroughs and is doing much better. That's encouraging although it doesn't confirm he'll play. With JV Gibson in concussion protocol, Tabb's availability matters even more to Cincinnati's scoring outlook.
Iowa State can do plenty of the work here. Cincinnati just allowed Utah and Houston to run for more than six yards per carry, which gives Cyclones lead back Aiden Flora a chance to get loose and QB Jaylen Raynor opportunities to throw without constantly facing third-and-long. The Cyclones have scored 45 and 51 points respectively in their past two home games, and this defense gives them another favorable matchup.
Cincinnati has also scored touchdowns on 80% of its red-zone trips. If Tabb plays, I like its chances to answer.
Georgia State +5.5 vs. Georgia Southern
The key to this matchup is if Panthers QB Cameran Brown is trending towards starting. His legs give Georgia Southern another runner to account for. Southern's run defense is solid, so Brown's ability to create chances if running backs Lanear McCrary Jr and Qwantavius Wiggins can't get much going.
QB Max Johnson can move the Eagles downfield but neither team plays particularly fast, which could make margin difficult. I'm taking the points with a home team that has multiple ways to answer -- provided Brown gets the start.
Tennessee at Texas A&M UNDER 43.5
The Aggies' scoring at home looks better until you check who supplied it. Seventeen of its 24 home touchdowns came against Missouri State, Arizona State and The Citadel. Tennessee is a different assignment, as its defense is allowing touchdowns on fewer than half of its opponents' red-zone trips.
Marcel Reed completes fewer than half his passes under pressure, and Tennessee can bring it from inside and off the edge. A&M may struggle just to get into scoring position.
The Aggies can make Tennessee uncomfortable, too. Their run defense gives them a chance to limit DeSean Bishop and ask George MacIntyre to carry more of the offense. That's where Tennessee becomes less dependable. Both defenses can challenge what the offenses need. -- Maldonado
Mark Zinno's plays
Boston College at Notre Dame under 52.5
Notre Dame can exhale after their win over the Hurricanes. But they do have SMU on deck, and a second loss could put their College Football Playoff status in jeopardy, so this "sandwich spot" against Boston College has a feeling like it's going to be flat for the Irish. I don't think the Eagles pose any real threat to Notre Dame here particularly because the Boston College offense is inept. They are 104th in total offense and are 91st in scoring at 27 points per game. When they have had to step up in class against top ACC defenses, their offense fails, especially on the road where they've only scored more than 16 points once and it was against a hapless Georgia Tech team.
Notre Dame just endured a physical matchup against Miami and will likely use this game to rest some players for SMU next week. The Irish can score, but the one strength the Eagles have is their defense. As long as we don't see a lot of turnovers from Boston College that give away free points, this should be a slog in South Bend. The Irish can sleepwalk their way through a win here and I can see them pulling up late in the second half here.
Kansas State +10 at TCU
This is another "hold your nose and look away" kind of play. Kansas State's offense is in disarray, and they haven't won a game since starter Avery Johnson went down. But the last two games with Blake Barnett under center have shown signs of improvement. It's enough for me to play against TCU here because as bad as the Wildcats are on offense, the Horned Frogs are even worse. This is a crazy number for TCU to be laying here with an offense that averages 18.3 points per game in conference play. TCU could only manage to score 20 points at home against West Virginia, who is the second worst defense in the country!
Before I get too excited, we must acknowledge the Horned Frogs defense. They are really good, ranked 22nd in the nation in total defense. Still, Kansas State is 15th in the country in time of possession and that should help wear down TCU late. The Horned Frogs also have a date with undefeated Utah on deck. If the Wildcats can get to 17 points in this game, they should cover this number.
Georgia 1H TT o16.5 vs. Missouri
Let's get creative here because the number is favorable. Georgia is the highest scoring first half team in the country averaging 24.4 points in the first half this season. That number balloons up to 28 points at home in the first 30 minutes. Now a lot of those numbers are inflated by early season blowouts, but three of those games were SEC competition.
Where the numbers work here is against Missouri when they play high-level offenses, especially on the road. The Tigers gave up 14 at Kansas in the first half, but the Jayhawks had an interception and a missed field goal. They gave up 14 at Mississippi State (with Kamario Taylor), but the Bulldogs had an interception and ended the first half on a 4th and goal play that didn't produce points. They gave up 21 at Ole Miss in a blowout loss. And last week at home against Texas they allowed 10 at half where the Longhorns fumbled on the Missouri side of the field. Georgia is the best offense Mizzou will face all season, and the Dawgs show no mercy to anyone early in games, especially at home. The margin for error in these types of plays is thin, so as long as UGA doesn't make a mistake and turn the ball over, 17 points shouldn't be out of reach here.
Oklahoma State ML (-170) vs. Texas Tech
The Cowboys cracked the Top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings this week. They still opened up against Texas Tech as a 3.5-point favorite. The Pokes offense is hard to catch up to, ranking second in FBS in total offense and third in passing offense and points per game. The Red Raiders defense leaves a lot to be desired at 110th in total defense and 136th in pass defense. This is a bad matchup for Tech.
Cowboys QB Drew Mestemaker has entered both the Heisman and first round draft pick conversations and a standalone night game on ESPN can only further those conversations. Texas Tech has been outgained in every road game this season and I don't see that changing here. I'm willing to pay the juice on the money line because of the variance a high total brings in with uncommon scoring.
UCF -3 vs. Arizona State
This is much of a fade on Arizona State as it is a play on UCF at the "Bounce House." The Knights win better than 70% (134-57) of their home games. They have already beaten then-ranked No. 2 BYU at home this year. UCF is coming off a rare home loss to Baylor two weeks ago. They haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2024 in Gus Mahlzan's final season when they finished 4-8. Arizona State is unimpressive at best losing every road game this season. The Knights offense should do enough here and with a win, would get them back to a bowl game later this season.
Texas A&M +2.5 vs. Tennessee
I think we've reached the peak of the market on the Volunteers. Now No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings with two wins over top six teams in Alabama and Kentucky it's telling that oddsmakers are putting them as a short 2.5-point favorite on the road here. George MacIntyre has held up decently as the starter, but he's back on the road where things in the SEC are always tricky. The Vols lost their last road game in a wild finish at South Carolina and their other road wins were against two Power 4 bottom feeders in Arkansas and Georgia Tech.
The Aggies don't have much to play for other than pride and their defense should carry them here at home. The Vols are fairly one-dimensional with a very limited passing attack, going up against a stingy defense that only allows 18.7 points per game. Tennessee has LSU on deck, and they can't afford a slip up here. But this is the SEC and late season upsets are nothing new as the Aggies shake up the College Football Playoff picture.