The New York Giants enter Thursday night atop the NFC East, while the Washington Commanders are running out of time to turn their season around. These teams played to a 27-27 tie in Week 5, when Jayden Daniels rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns.
New York has won two straight games, and its defense continues to impress. The Giants rank fifth in yards allowed per game and third against the pass. Rookie linebacker Arvell Reese is coming off a dominant performance against Philadelphia, finishing with 12 tackles, three sacks and a forced fumble. Washington's offensive line could have trouble containing him, especially with center Lucas Patrick ruled out.
New York has some offensive injury concerns of its own. J.J. McCarthy briefly left last Sunday's game with a hip injury before returning, and Cam Skattebo has been dealing with a hamstring injury, though both practiced fully Wednesday.
Betting outlook
The Giants are 2.5-point favorites and the total has dropped considerably since opening, with rain and wind potentially impacting Thursday night's game.
The Giants rank fifth in yards allowed per game and held Philadelphia to just 11 points last week. Washington has struggled to sustain drives and ranks last in third-down conversion rate. McCarthy is coming off the aforementioned hip injury, so New York could lean more heavily on its running game. These teams combined for 54 points in Week 5, so there is some risk, but I still like the under at 40.5.
Daniels is my biggest concern with the under. He really used his legs in the first meeting and has the mobility to extend drives and create explosive plays.
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Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
J.J. McCarthy passing yards UNDER 209.5 (-112)
McCarthy threw for 243 and 252 yards, respectively, in his first two games for the Giants before managing just 127 against Philadelphia last week on 19 attempts. Washington's pass defense is among the league's best over the last three weeks at limiting opposing passing efficiency. With rain expected and Skattebo available, New York could lean on its running game.
Jayden Daniels rushing yards OVER 38.5 (-109)
In four meetings with the Giants, Daniels has rushed for 44, 35, 68 and most recently 103 yards. In that Week 5 game, New York blitzed Daniels on 62.2% of his dropbacks, creating opportunities for scrambles. The Giants also have allowed the second-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season. Daniels has averaged only 16.3 rushing yards over his last three games, which is concerning. Still, New York's aggressive defense could give him enough opportunities to clear this line.
Malik Nabers receptions OVER 5.5 (-141)
Nabers has caught at least six passes in five of eight games this season, averaging 6.6 receptions per game, and has seen at least eight targets in four straight games. He caught 11 of 20 targets for 121 yards and a touchdown against Washington in Week 5. The Commanders have struggled against the pass, and Nabers is McCarthy's top receiving option. Rain could limit passing volume, but his consistent target share gives him a good chance to reach six receptions again.