We're officially five weeks into the college football season and Ohio State Buckeyes WR Jeremiah Smith is catching everything, including the Heisman spotlight.
Alabama is rising, but are its futures prices getting ahead of the proof? The Big 12 is living up to its name on intrigue, with Oklahoma State making a case for a remarkable turnaround.
This week, we're separating performances worth believing in from prices worth paying, and finding a longshot worth backing.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Heisman market watch
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State (+110)
Last week: +260
Smith entered Week 1 at 15-1. I suggested a Week 3 grab at 7-1 and even last week at +260, there was still an argument that the market hadn't fully caught up yet. Now he's +110, the favorite in back-to-back weeks. The move is obvious.
Smith owns Ohio State's career records for receiving yards, receptions and touchdowns, reaching all three in only 34 games. Then came Iowa, the exact kind of defense that was supposed to provide resistance, yet Smith finished with 11 catches, 206 yards and two touchdowns while seeing double coverage and even triple coverage on his 54-yard grab. As the broadcast put it, "Double coverage is a way of life."
QB Julian Sayin is a non-factor in the awards conversation. He's playing well, although the highlights, attention and Heisman narrative belong to Smith now. Everyone knows where the ball is going, defenses build their plans around stopping him, and he produces anyway. That checks every Heisman box: dominance, records, signature moments and national relevance.
Smith can be the likeliest winner without being a buy at +110. If you have nothing and want exposure, keep it small. Otherwise, wait for a quieter week instead of chasing his biggest performance.
Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida (+8400)
Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State (+3200)
Last week: +150 (Baugh) and +500 (Taylor)
Entering Week 4, Baugh and Taylor were two of the hottest names in the Heisman market, then Week 5 came around and their odds shortened dramatically. We pushed back because the prices had moved before either player proved production could survive better competition.
Then came the exact resistance I warned about last week. Baugh managed 13 rushing yards (on 12 carries) as Florida was blown out in a 45-17 loss to Missouri. Taylor threw two interceptions and was sacked five times, losing by 33 points to Alabama. Their odds have rightfully drifted again. Could either rebound? Maybe, but to both rebuild and catch Smith? Tough.
These two are reminders that futures betting is about buying before the market moves, not chasing a shortened price after the hype has outrun the evidence.
CFP market watch
Big move, small sample for Alabama and QB Keelon Russell
Alabama going from 23-1 to +1150 and Russell from +1600 to 8-1 after one ranked road win is another example of the market moving fast. The Mississippi State win looked complete: Russell was explosive, the offense stayed balanced and Alabama's defense turned Taylor's first test into a long afternoon.
But does it carry over? Partly. Mississippi State's pass defense was weak, so Russell wasn't really tested. Georgia coming to Tuscaloosa in Week 6 is the real test. If Russell handles Georgia's blitzes and Alabama's line holds up, both moves are justified. I understand the adjustment.
A playoff contender? Yes. A buy in the futures market? Not quite.
Futures prediction: Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 (+1100)
Let's step away from the SEC and the Big Ten for a minute. There's a whole other world of football happening, and Oklahoma State may be the most interesting of every team in it.
The Cowboys lead the Big 12 in total offense, have genuine explosiveness through Drew Mestemaker and a schedule that gives this bet room to breathe. They avoid BYU and Utah, get Texas Tech and Kansas at home and have several remaining opponents whose offenses should not consistently expose Oklahoma State's defensive weaknesses.
Now I'm not saying Oklahoma State is some dominant team. The run defense and tackling are concerns, and the offense has been far better on early downs than in obvious passing situations. Where those faults find balance is with its pass rush, creating the occasional drive-killing play, while the offense has enough firepower to win the conference's inevitable high-variance games.
At 11-to-1, Oklahoma State has a credible path, a high ceiling and a conference without an unbeatable favorite. What a turnaround that would be after last year's 1-11 record. I can see it.