The Green Bay Packers are anxious to get their running game going. They are last in the league with 59.9 rushing yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry. Thursday's opponent could offer an opportunity. The Carolina Panthers have been just as poor stopping the run, allowing a league-high 153.2 yards per game and 5.2 yards per attempt. They allowed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to pile up 258 rushing yards and three touchdowns against them last Sunday.
For the Packers, Josh Jacobs managed 91 total yards on 16 touches in his season debut last week, and I'd expect his workload to increase. The question is whether Green Bay's injured offensive line can open enough holes for him.
Slowing down the run is key for Carolina, but the bigger concern for the Panthers is keeping Bryce Young upright. Young took five sacks and turned the ball over three times against the Buccaneers. Young has faced pressure on 44.3% of dropbacks against four or fewer rushers, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. The Packers are excellent at generating pressure without blitzing and lead the league with nine interceptions. With offensive linemen Taylor Moton and Damien Lewis out, Young could be in for another long night.
Betting outlook
The market has changed quite a bit since the preseason. The Packers were 7-point favorites in the August lookahead, and the game had a 45.5-point total. The spread has come down to 3.5, while the total reached 48.5 before settling around 47.5 during game week. I still expect the Packers to win, but I don't see enough value in laying 3.5 points.
I prefer the under. The under has hit in five of Green Bay's seven games this season, and their last four games have averaged just 35.5 combined points. The Packers rank 30th in red zone touchdown rate at 46.2%. The Panthers' three road games have finished with 37, 39 and 39 total points.
Jacobs' return helps Green Bay's offense, but running more often could also shorten the game. Carolina's protection issues don't bode well against a defense that can pressure Young without blitzing. The biggest threats to the game going over the total are turnovers that create short fields and explosive plays in the passing game.
Notable player props, bets
Note: Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Josh Jacobs 83-plus rushing + receiving yards (-112)
Moody: Jacobs finished with 36 rushing yards on 11 carries against the Detroit Lions, but he also caught five passes for 55 yards and a touchdown. That receiving production is why I prefer his combined prop. The Panthers have allowed a league-high 5.2 yards per carry, so Jacobs should also have an opportunity to improve on his rushing production in his second game back.
Matt Bowen: Last Sunday versus the Lions, in his first game of the season, Jacobs had 91 total yards on 16 touches. Jacobs averaged only 3.3 YPC (on 11 rushes), but he played a key role in the pass game, posting five receptions for 55 yards. With a positive matchup on Thursday night against a Panthers defense that has allowed league worst 5.2 YPC, I expect the rushing efficiency to improve for Jacobs, and his usage as a receiver pushes him over the total.
Chuba Hubbard receiving yards OVER 16.5 (-112)
Moody: Hubbard has caught 15 of 18 targets for 112 yards this season, averaging 18.7 receiving yards per game. The Panthers' problems in pass protection could lead to more short throws against the Packers. Hubbard doesn't need a huge receiving workload to clear this number, especially if the Panthers are playing from behind.