We are about three-quarters of the way through this WNBA season, and we have seen some special performances. There are still almost two months left before the last game, though, because there will be a 17-day break in the action for the FIFA Women's Basketball World Cup.
So, let's take another deep dive into the various futures races before the season enters the stretch run.
Who are the favorites, the contenders and the longshots of interest for the MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player races? And where does the best betting value lie? Let's explore.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook
and subject to change.
Most Valuable Player
Leader: A'ja Wilson (-600)
In the hunt: Olivia Miles (+600), Caitlin Clark (15-1)
Longshots of interest: Paige Bueckers (25-1), Kelsey Mitchell (80-1)
At this point, Wilson is the heavy favorite to win her third straight MVP award and her fifth overall. She leads the WNBA in scoring (26.3 PPG) and blocked shots (2.0 BPG), and she has led the Las Vegas Aces to the third-best record in the league. The Aces are outscoring their opponents by a whopping 12.8 points per 100 possessions with Wilson on the court, 29.1 PP100 better than when she is on the bench. Wilson's combination of dominant individual stats, team success and massive impact are a proven formula for her to win MVP trophies.
Miles is turning in one of the better rookie seasons in WNBA history, leading the Minnesota Lynx to the best record in the WNBA even with Napheesa Collier having missed the majority of the season. Miles is the clear offensive engine for the team with the second-best Offensive Rating (116.4 points per 100 possessions) in the league, leading the team in both points and assists. The Lynx outscore their opponents by 13.9 PP100 with Miles on the court, 8.4 PP100 better than when she is on the bench.
Clark and Mitchell make up the most dynamic backcourt in the league. Clark is second in the WNBA in assists (8.1 APG) and fourth in scoring (21.6 PPG), while Mitchell is second in the league in scoring (24.2 PPG) and fourth in total 3-pointers made. They have led the Indiana Fever to the leading-scoring offense in the league (95.9 PPG) and a top-5 record in the league. Mitchel leads the Fever with an on-court/off-court +/- of +10.7 PP100.
In her second season, Bueckers has improved across-the-board from her Rookie of the Year first campaign. Her scoring (20.1 PPG), 2-point field goal percentage (56.1 2P%), 3-point percentage (39.3 3P%), field goal percentage (51.1 FG%) and assists (5.8 APG) are all up and among the league leaders.
Wilson is clearly the most likely to win MVP this season, but her odds are so short that there is no juice in betting on her at this point. While it would be a surprise if anyone else were to hoist the MVP trophy, Miles has the best case. She has clearly been the best player on the best team in the league, a recipe that has led to many MVP awards through the years. And there's still a quarter of the season left; if the Lynx continue to run away with best record and the Aces were to slide in the standings, Miles' case could get stronger. So, though I expect Wilson to win, Miles is the best value for those betting today.
Defensive Player of the Year
Leader: Gabby Williams (-130)
In the hunt: A'ja Wilson (+200), Shakira Austin (+400)
Longshots of interest: Natasha Howard (25-1), Rhyne Howard (75-1)
Williams has taken over as the odds-on favorite on the strength of leading the best team defense in the WNBA. The Golden State Valkyries have the best defensive rating (103.2 points allowed per 100 possessions) in the league and also allow by-far the fewest points per game (77.1 PPG allowed). Williams has an excellent defensive reputation and leads the Valkyries with 1.6 SPG (eighth in the league).
Wilson has been named Defensive Player of the Year in three of the last four seasons, including her tie with Alanna Smith last season. The one season in that span when she didn't win the award, 2024, Wilson got second. Wilson leads the league in blocks and is second in total defensive rebounds. The Aces rank sixth in the league in team defensive rating (109.1 PP100 allowed).
Austin is anchoring the Washington Mystics to one of the best defenses in the league, second in both defensive rating (104.4 PP100 allowed) and points allowed (82.6 PPG allowed). Austin leads the team in blocked shots (1.4 BPG, eight in WNBA) and defensive rebounds, where she is battling Wilson for the second spot in the league.
Former DPoY Natasha Howard joined the Lynx this season and helped keep them among the league leaders in defense even with 2024 DPoY Collier sidelined for much of the campaign. Howard leads the team in on-court/off-court +/-, with much of her impact on defense.
Rhyne Howard leads the WNBA with 2.4 SPG, on an Atlanta Dream defense that allows the fourth-fewest points in the league.
Given that Williams is not getting much juice and that Wilson is getting 2-to-1 odds despite putting together a resume very similar to the one that has won her three of the last four DPoY awards, I would say Wilson is the best value on the board for futures betters at this point.
Most Improved Player
Leader: Jessica Shepard (-180)
In the hunt: Shakira Austin (+600), Marina Mabrey (+700), Dominique Malonga (+900)
Longshots of interest: Carla Leite (15-1), Rae Burrell (25-1)
Shepard was the favorite to win this award when he did our one-month-in update in June, and she is an even bigger favorite now. Shepard has been a triple-double monster, notching four on the season and earning her first All Star nod. She is on pace to shatter her previous career-bests in scoring (14.2 PPG, up 6.1 PPG from previous career high), rebounds (11.4 RPG, up 4.0 RPG) and assists (5.2 APG, up 2.0 APG).
Austin has vaulted herself into the mix with clearly the best season of her career. Austin is on-pace to set new career marks in scoring (16.2 PPG, up 3.5 PPG from previous career high), rebounds (9.6 RPG, up 2.6 RPG), assists (2.6 APG, up 0.8 APG) and blocks (1.4 BPG, up 0.3 BPG). And she's become one of the dominant defensive players in the league too, as evidenced by her currently having the third-best DPOY odds as well.
Mabrey has exploded as a scorer this season, ranking sixth in the WNBA with 20.7 PPG, an improvement of 5.7 PPG from her previous career mark. She earned her first All Star selection as well.
With Shepard as such a heavy favorite, there isn't a lot of value in betting on her now. Plus, Austin and the Mystics have been finishing the season very strong. The Mystics have won seven straight games and have vaulted up the standings, currently less than a game out of a top-4 record in the league. This kind of momentum to end the season can influence the voters, making Austin the best value on the board at 6-to-1 odds.