Quarterback Dante Moore enters his second season at Oregon with a full offseason as the unquestioned starter, one of the biggest advantages any college football contender can have. The team isn't breaking in a transfer or hoping a five-star freshman develops overnight -- it knows its quarterback.
Oregon's roster turnover is also manageable. It lost running back Noah Whittington and two productive pass catchers in receiver Malik Benson and tight end Kenyon Sadiq, but the receiving production wasn't concentrated in one superstar. The receiving group was relatively balanced, so the Ducks are replacing production with players who have already been involved instead of rebuilding the passing game from scratch.
Defense is where Oregon separates itself from the rest of the Big Ten. The Ducks return their top two sack producers, including linebackers Teitum Tuioti (who had the fourth most sacks in the conference last season) and Matayo Uiagalelei and the core of a secondary that consistently created negative plays. Over the past couple of seasons, college football has rewarded teams that can rush the passer without sacrificing coverage. Oregon projects to keep both strengths intact.
The schedule helps, too. The Ducks' trip to Ohio State on Nov. 7 is the obvious hurdle, but beyond that, Oregon should be favored nearly every week. Even if the Ducks lose in Columbus, an 11-1 season still puts them in excellent position to reach the Big Ten championship game. They aren't dramatically better than Ohio State or Indiana, but as the third favorites to win the Big Ten, I see value.
I like OVER 10.5 wins (+100), but I actually prefer the bet to win the conference (+260). An upset somewhere along the schedule could derail the win total, but Oregon has multiple paths to winning the conference. Oregon is the most complete team entering the 2026 season.
Also consider: Indiana OVER 10.5 (+100)
Indiana earned everyone's respect last season, but now comes the harder part: Can the Hoosiers prove it wasn't a one-year peak?
I like the quarterback transition. Indiana replaced Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with TCU's Josh Hoover, one of the better portal additions in the country. Coach Curt Cignetti has also earned the benefit of the doubt. At this point, betting against his ability to build a roster seems like a mistake.
The offensive turnover is impossible to ignore. Indiana lost its top two running backs (Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby), who accounted for roughly 2,100 rushing yards, and its top two receivers (Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt), who were responsible for nearly half of the team's passing production and 28 receiving scores. On defense, the Hoosiers replaced their top corner (D'Angelo Ponds) and top safety (Louis Moore). That's a lot of proven production that walked out the door.
Could Hoover be excellent? Absolutely. Will Indiana still be well coached? I have no doubt. The question is whether a new quarterback, new running backs and new primary receivers can immediately recreate one of the best offenses in the conference.
Why I'm still bullish on OVER 10.5 wins at plus money is because Indiana returns every one of its top five sack producers, so the pass rush should remain one of the strengths of the defense. But despite finishing second in sacks nationally, the Hoosiers graded closer to average as a pass-rushing unit.
Some of last season's sack production was driven by scheme, coverage and finishing plays rather than one-on-one dominance. I expect another disruptive defense but won't automatically expect another top-two sack season.
Ohio State UNDER 10.5 (-200): Is it worth it?
Ohio State has one of the highest offensive ceilings in the country. Julian Sayin steps into one of the best situations with receiver Jeremiah Smith, who might be the best player in college football, and the Buckeyes still have enough talent across its roster to be explosive immediately.
My concern isn't scoring points, it's replacing one of the nation's best defenses, which was the best at limiting touchdowns. Ohio State lost nearly half of last season's tackling production; two of its top three pass rushers, including Caden Curry (second most sacks in conference); and its secondary's top playmaker in both interceptions and pass breakups in cornerback Davison Igbinosun. That's production at every level of the defense.
Coach Ryan Day recruits well enough that I don't expect the defense to completely fall apart, but expecting it to play at the same level as a unit that allowed just 9.3 points per game is unrealistic.
Plus, Ohio State's schedule includes road trips to Texas and Iowa and a three-game stretch at Indiana, at USC and home against Oregon that's a legitimate test.
I understand the market leaning under 10.5 wins, but the problem is the price. At -200 for the UNDER, you're paying a premium for a projection I already agree with. Three losses are in the cards, but the edge isn't large enough to justify laying that much juice. Ohio State has too much talent for me to be comfortable paying that price, but I'm also less convinced Ohio State wins enough games after replacing that defense.
If I had to rank the quarterbacks purely on who I'd trust in a winner-take-all game tomorrow, I'd go with Sayin, who is steadier with the highest floor. If I had to rank them by who has the best chance to become the best quarterback by the end of the season, I'd flip to Dante Moore, who has the highest upside.
That's why I still like Oregon to win the Big Ten over the course of a season, even if I'd likely take Ohio State in a single game played in Columbus.
Other bets to consider
By Mark Zinno
USC UNDER 5.5 conference wins (-125)
This one pains me because I'm a big fan of USC coach Lincoln Riley and college football is better when the Trojans are good, but there's just too much here from a schedule standpoint. The Trojans have struggled on the road since joining the Big Ten and lost every road game outside the Pacific time zone in 2024. They won two of their four games outside the West Coast last season at Purdue and Nebraska. It's something that Riley has to prove he can overcome for USC to take the next step, even with the nation's No. 1 recruiting class. This season, four of the Trojans' five road games are traveling east, including one to Indiana. They have home dates against Ohio State and Oregon. If we concede road wins at Rutgers, Wisconsin and UCLA based off sheer talent, finding three more wins isn't easy. It would include them stealing one from the Buckeyes, Ducks or Hoosiers, and Washington is no slouch either. A lot has to go right for USC to win six conference games this season. If it does, there's a good chance it's in the playoff conversation.
Penn State to make CFP (+360)
This play is more about pricing than anything else. Penn State's win total is at 8.5, and the over is priced at -166. Penn State to win over 9.5 games is priced at +140. If the Nittany Lions make it to 10-2 this season, that should be enough to get them in the playoff. Of course, Notre Dame was 10-2 last season and missed the playoff, but Penn State plays in the Big Ten and that should carry more weight. The Nittany Lions' schedule is probably more favorable than it was at any point in coach James Franklin's tenure. They do not play Ohio State, Oregon or Indiana. They have only four conference road games. Even if they lose their road games at Michigan and Washington, their other road games are winnable spots at Northwestern and Maryland. I know there is a lot of change in Happy Valley, but there is reason for optimism and 10 wins seems like a high probability.
Maryland over 3.5 conference wins (+115)
If you've followed college football for the past decade, you might be in disbelief at this selection ... but bear with me here. I know coach Mike Locksley's tenure at Maryland hasn't been impressive, particularly his Big Ten record since he took over in 2019 (16-43). But Maryland is in a very fortunate position this season with 16 returning starters, including sophomore QB Malik Washington. His growth could be the biggest difference-maker for the Terrapins, particularly in a new offense that's designed for him to run more. The Terps' defense returns eight starters and defensive coordinator Ted Monachino. It might be prepared to make the biggest jump, which it will need against a schedule of what could have a bunch of coin-flip games. Maryland gets UCLA at home and then travels to Nebraska, which has its own questions at quarterback. A road game at Purdue and a home game with Wisconsin -- a team the Terps beat last season -- are winnable games. If Maryland takes care of Rutgers, I'm confident it will get there.
Wisconsin under 6.5 wins (-115)
Coach Luke Fickell hasn't exactly restored the Badgers to what many had hoped. They had one of the worst offenses in the country last season, averaging 12.8 points per game. Enter Old Dominion QB Colton Joseph. This is a massive jump to the Big Ten for him. Even if the Badgers see considerable improvement on offense, is that really enough to make a dent in Big Ten defenses? I don't think so. Fortunately, the Badgers avoid Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana. That's the only thing making me think they can get to six wins. But they face Notre Dame in their opener at Lambeau Field, Penn State on the road and USC at home. That's just too much of a jump in one year with only 10 returning starters and a new offense for me to trust the Badgers to win seven games, even with an easier schedule.