MLB betting tips for Wednesday: Trust Mize in Padres debut?

Following a deadline deal, can Casey Mize win his San Diego debut? AP

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Wednesday's top batter prop bets

Christian Walker | OVER 0.5 HR (+501)
Projection: 20% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.30 EV

Jose Altuve | OVER 0.5 HR (+840)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.53 EV

Kazuma Okamoto | OVER 0.5 RBI (+229)
Projection: 36% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.62 EV

Ezequiel Tovar | OVER 1.5 TB (+167)
Projection: 44% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.88 EV

Yainer Diaz | UNDER 0.5 H (+166)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.31 EV

Wednesday's top pitcher prop bets

Drew Anderson | OVER 2.5 K (-132)
Projection: 75% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.47 EV

Sean Burke | UNDER 6.5 K (-156)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.31 EV

Casey Mize | UNDER 4.5 K (-152)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.70 EV

Christian Scott | UNDER 5.5 K (-150)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.75 EV

Cody Bradford | OVER 3.5 K (-147)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.89 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.

Boston Red Sox Moneyline:
Boston is looking to extend a six-game winning streak. (+7.30 Units / 93% ROI). Current odds: -126

Detroit Tigers Team Total OVER:
The Tigers have gone over this total in seven straight games. (+7.25 Units / 90% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -110

Miami Marlins Game Total UNDER:
The last seven road games involving the Marlins have gone under this total. (+7.00 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 8.5 @ +100

Baltimore Orioles 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
Baltimore has gone under this total in six consecutive contests. (+6.25 Units / 85% ROI). Current odds: 2.5 @ -154