MLB betting tips for Tuesday: Pick Phillies to pounce on post-deadline Nationals

Jesus Luzardo blew a big lead in his last start. Can he rebound against the Nationals? AP

All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.


Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz


Tuesday's top batter prop bets

Tyler O'Neill | OVER 0.5 HR (+556)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $38.28 EV

Taylor Ward | OVER 0.5 HR (+820)
Projection: 13% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.70 EV

Josh Lowe | OVER 0.5 RBI (+302)
Projection: 31% chance of this bet hitting, with a $23.37 EV

Kyle Schwarber | UNDER 0.5 H (+201)
Projection: 38% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.20 EV

Randal Grichuk | UNDER 0.5 H (+141)
Projection: 47% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.27 EV

Tuesday's top pitcher prop bets

Davis Martin | UNDER 4.5 K (-107)
Projection: 61% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.99 EV

J.T. Ginn | UNDER 2.5 ER (-116)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.35 EV

Logan Henderson | UNDER 6.5 K (-114)
Projection: 65% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.83 EV

Jared Jones | UNDER 5.5 K (-101)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $20.02 EV

Jesus Luzardo | UNDER 1.5 ER (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.70 EV

THE BAT X: Team Projections

Top betting trends

Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.

Athletics 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total UNDER:
The Athletics have gone under this total in 14 straight road games. (+14.10 Units / 73% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ +120

Detroit Tigers Team Total OVER:
Detroit has gone over this total in six straight contests. (+6.25 Units / 92% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -120

Texas Rangers Team Total UNDER:
Texas has been under this total in six consecutive games. (+6.25 Units / 89% ROI). Current odds: 4.5 @ -120

Washington Nationals Team Total UNDER:
The Nationals have gone under this total six straight times. (+6.00 Units / 76% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -135