The post-Tom Brady New England Patriots struggled to find their footing until drafting Drake Maye third overall in 2024, but even his rookie season resulted in a subpar 4-13 record. But 2025 came with increased expectations and a solid, if unspectacular, win total, but no one saw the surprise of the season coming in New England.
The Patriots tied for the most wins in the NFL with 14 and the most covers in the league with 12, and their offense pushed games to the over (11-6 O/U) at a rate exceeded only by a woeful Cowboys defense (13-4). The season kicked off with New England as 75-1 Super Bowl long shots, dipping as low as 100-1 in early October, before ascending at breakneck speed. The Pats became AFC favorites the day after Thanksgiving and cashed those tickets a few months later. A tougher schedule awaits, but the sky is the limit for Maye and co. -- Kevin Pulsifer
Note: Odds by DK Sports
and subject to change.
2026 outlook: Difficult to match last year's success
The Patriots exceeded expectations in 2025, making it all the way to the Super Bowl, but a step backward in 2026 feels like a real possibility. New England faces a first-place schedule after racking up 14 regular-season wins with last year's cupcake slate. Maye remains one of the league's most promising young quarterbacks and the team added WR A.J. Brown, so I fully expect them to be a playoff contender once again, but the margin for error this season will be significantly smaller. Then there's Mike Vrabel's tumultuous and embarrassing offseason. While those storylines may not directly translate to losses, they do create unnecessary distraction. The Patriots will remain competitive enough to avoid a collapse, but matching or exceeding last season's win total will be nearly impossible. From a betting perspective, I'm going to be a bit bearish on New England this season. -- Tyler Fulghum
Best bet: UNDER 10.5 wins (-140)
The Patriots face a difficult path to 11 wins after benefiting from a favorable schedule in 2025. Their first-place schedule in 2026, combined with the potential ripple effects caused by Vrabel's messy offseason, makes double-digit victories far from a certainty. Maye gives New England a high ceiling, but the market appears to be pricing in another leap forward for this team. The under 10.5 wins offers value for me, as even modest regression could leave the Patriots finishing with nine or 10 victories. -- Fulghum