All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Friday's top batter prop bets
Colt Emerson | OVER 0.5 HR (+1180)
Projection: 9% chance of this bet hitting, with a $14.82 EV
Edwin Arroyo | OVER 1.5 TB (+240)
Projection: 37% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.49 EV
Mike Yastrzemski | OVER 0.5 RBI (+405)
Projection: 25% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.39 EV
Chandler Simpson | UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI (-107)
Projection: 60% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.43 EV
Kerry Carpenter | UNDER 0.5 H (+162)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.56 EV
Friday's top pitcher prop bets
Tarik Skubal | OVER 6.5 K (-115)
Projection: 62% chance of this bet hitting, with a $17.25 EV
Tarik Skubal | OVER 0.5 ER (-197)
Projection: 74% chance of this bet hitting, with a $21.32 EV
Jacob Misiorowski | UNDER 8.5 K (-140)
Projection: 76% chance of this bet hitting, with a $41.46 EV
Tatsuya Imai | OVER 4.5 K (-158)
Projection: 70% chance of this bet hitting, with a $22.42 EV
Ben Brown | UNDER 4.5 K (+105)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.31 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action.
Miami Marlins Run Line
The Marlins have won on the run line in five straight home games.(+6.15 Units / 89% ROI).
Current odds: -1 @ +124
Seattle Mariners Team Total Under
The Mariners have hit the under in five straight games. (+5.25 Units / 95% ROI).
Current odds: 3.5 @ -140
Pittsburgh Pirates Game Total Over
Pirates games have hit the over in 15 of the last 20 games. (+10.85 Units / 50% ROI).
Current odds: 11.5 @ -108
Chicago Cubs Game Total Under
Cubs games have gone under in 8 of the last 10 contests. (+5.85 Units / 54% ROI).
Current odds: 7 @ +100