Indiana's 2025 national title was jarring in about 100 different ways. That the losingest major program in the sport could win it all meant that in this new era of college football, possibilities are endless for a program that can hire well and invest properly.
Sure, it helps quite a bit if you're in one of the nation's two richest conferences. And it certainly doesn't hurt to have a spectacularly huge alumni base just waiting to be inspired enough to spend lots of money, as Indiana's evidently was. For all of the extreme losses in the Hoosiers' history, there was a sleeping giant element here that not too many other programs can match.
Still, when Curt Cignetti lifted the national title trophy and cracked a beer, it signaled a moment of hope for a number of programs. College football's ruling class is a pretty exclusive party, and the Hoosiers were the first first-time national champs since Steve Spurrier's 1996 Florida barged through the door almost three decades earlier.
There's nothing saying we're going to have a flood of first-time titles moving forward, but it's fair to wonder what school might next join the exclusive Champions Club. Looking at a variety of metrics -- historical poll finishes, recent SP+ rankings and averages (and recent max ratings, which can tell us about ceilings), Adam Rittenberg's most recent Future Power Rankings for power-conference teams and revenue data from the last relevant fiscal year, posted by USA Today -- let's take a stab at who's most likely to break through.
The first team on the list is extremely obvious. Things get interesting after that.
(Note: There are lots of ways to suss out who does or doesn't have a ring in college football. It can make you crazy, so I'm going to keep this simple by looking purely at major polls: Only titles awarded by the AP pollsters or the UPI/Coaches poll count. Some of the teams below, such as Ole Miss, Arkansas, UCF and most recently Missouri, claim titles. For our purposes, those are false claims and they are eligible for the first-timers list. Meanwhile, programs like Texas A&M and TCU, which last topped the polls in the 1930s, are not.)
1. Oregon Ducks
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 2 in 2001, 2012 and 2014)
Projected 2026 SP+: 29.2 (second)
10-year SP+ average: 14.4 (third among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 26.2 (fourth among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: first among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $153.5 million
For No. 1 here, there's no tension whatsoever: Oregon is obvious.
The Ducks reached the national title game in 2010 and 2014 and have finished second in the polls three times in this century. In 2026 they are projected second in SP+ and are the No. 4 betting favorite for the national title. They're also nearly upset-proof under Dan Lanning: The last time they lost to a team that didn't reach the national title game was against Oregon State late in the 2022 season. That was almost four years ago. Getting blown out in each of the past two College Football Playoffs might have removed a hint of shine, but when you only lose to the best of the best, it probably means you're close to being the best yourself. This is a dynamite program that has earned its place in the Champions Club, even if it's had to wait a bit longer than expected for membership.
2. Texas Tech Red Raiders
AP top-10 finishes: 1 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 21.8 (eighth)
10-year SP+ average: 7.5 (14th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 27.6 (third among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: second among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $110.2 million
The power of the checkbook has allowed Tech to cut in line. Going strictly by the metrics above, the Red Raiders should be around sixth on the list, even with an emphasis on 2026 projections. But with big spending and incredible talent evaluation, Joey McGuire's program surged to a number of firsts last season: First Big 12 title, first top-10 finish, first CFP berth, etc. No matter how much last year's roster cost, a huge percentage of the transfers Tech added to its 2025 roster outperformed any production at previous stops; for the moment, at least, the Red Raiders staff gets full benefit of the doubt.
This program is loaded and prepared to make a number of runs at CFP berths in the coming seasons. It stinks that you might need a sugar daddy oil billionaire to compete for a title if you aren't in the Big Ten or SEC, but Tech has one, so that's other people's problem.
3. Ole Miss Rebels
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 3 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 16.5 (16th)
10-year SP+ average: 13.4 (fifth among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 27.9 (second among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: third among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $133.6 million
Ole Miss' place on this list is blurry, as it claims the 1959, 1960 and 1962 titles. (For whatever it's worth, the Rebels were first in SP+ in four of five seasons between 1959 and 1963.) But it has never finished atop the polls, so here they are. And considering they basically finished one play short of a spot in last year's national title game, they are capable of a huge run.
One major question for the coming years: Is a Pete Golding program as capable of said run as Lane Kiffin's program was? Kiffin was Ole Miss' best head coach of the past half-century, and while Golding might have the best backfield in the country at his disposal with quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy, they'll each be gone after 2026, and Golding's program will have to stand on its own. We'll see what the Rebels have to offer moving forward.
4. Iowa Hawkeyes
AP top-10 finishes: 13 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2009)
Projected 2026 SP+: 14.6 (22nd)
10-year SP+ average: 16.1 (first among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 22.8 (fifth among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: fifth among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $151.5 million
That Iowa -- another program with a few historic title claims but no top poll finishes -- has the best average SP+ rating of any team here over the last 10 years, but only the fifth-best peak, tells a pretty clear story. Kirk Ferentz's Hawkeyes have generated a level of consistency that few programs ever see, winning between eight and 10 games in 11 of the last 13 seasons and claiming a top-15 defense, per SP+, for 11 straight years. When the breaks go their way in close games, they win 10; when they don't, it's more like eight. Keep that up, and they'll reach the CFP pretty soon.
They'll still have to win three or four games when they get there, however, and they've lost their past seven games against top-10 teams by an average of 33-7. Raw upside is Iowa's biggest issue; this is a high-floor, lower-ceiling program, and we'll see if it can figure out a way to bridge that gap. If Indiana can, the Hawkeyes can, right?
5. Missouri Tigers
AP top-10 finishes: 9 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2007)
Projected 2026 SP+: 15.4 (19th)
10-year SP+ average: 10.5 (seventh among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 19.3 (12th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 10th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $141.2 million
In the 13 seasons since Missouri joined the SEC, the Tigers have enjoyed four seasons with double-digit wins. In that span, only five SEC teams -- Alabama, Georgia , LSU, Oklahoma and Ole Miss -- have enjoyed more, and OU was in the Big 12 until 2024. Mizzou has won 29 games in the last three seasons, with an average SP+ ranking of 16.7. The Tigers had at least one top-15 ranking on both offense and defense in that span. Eli Drinkwitz has proved he can amass elite potential on both sides of the ball.
Drinkwitz has raised the program's recruiting profile and has shown a deft touch in the portal in recent seasons, and Mizzou's ceiling has risen as well. Of course, maintaining an edge in the SEC is pretty difficult, and the Tigers' quality has slipped a smidgen in both years since their 2023 surge. But they're a projected top-20ish team again this season, and in Austin Simmons, Drinkwitz attracted one of the most high-ceiling (if also rather low-floor) QBs in the portal this offseason.
6. Louisville Cardinals
AP top-10 finishes: 2 (2000s peak: No. 6 in 2004 and 2006)
Projected 2026 SP+: 11.1 (27th)
10-year SP+ average: 7.3 (15th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 19.7 (11th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: sixth among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $146.2 million
Louisville has won at least nine games for three straight seasons and in seven of the past 14. Under Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals have been consistently explosive and exciting, with quarterback play somewhere between solid and great. Brohm is also a major player in the transfer portal and could come up with just the right alchemy for an ACC title run soon. The school also produces Big Ten- or SEC-level athletic revenue, which is a key reason there's a lot of potential and it is on this list.
7. Utah Utes
AP top-10 finishes: 4 (2000s peak: No. 2 in 2008)
Projected 2026 SP+: 9.8 (30th)
10-year SP+ average: 14.5 (second among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 22.2 (sixth among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: seventh among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $115.7 million
In the early 2000s, Utah made one of the best sets of back-to-back hires on record, first bringing in Urban Meyer for a supernova burst of greatness, then replacing him with Kyle Whittingham, who enjoyed eight seasons of double-digit wins and four top-15 finishes in 21 years. Whittingham ran a sturdy and strong program, and Utah would rank a little higher here if he hadn't left for Michigan last winter. Maybe new coach Morgan Scalley kicks things up another notch, but uncertainty knocks the Utes down a spot or two.
8. Illinois Fighting Illini
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2001)
Projected 2026 SP+: 10.4 (28th)
10-year SP+ average: 1.5 (34th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 15.8 (27th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 11th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $145.7 million
An Iowa grad and former Wisconsin head coach, Bret Bielema is building a sturdy, physical program where one has rarely existed before. His Fighting Illini have won at least eight games in three of the past four seasons, and after a momentary stumble in 2023, they bounced back to win 19 games in 2024-25.
The Illini's offense has improved by leaps and bounds of late, while the defense has alternated between decent and awesome. Combine steady play with Big Ten money, and you have the potential for an Indiana-like rise. Their 2026 season will tell us a lot about their potential, though: They return only four offensive starters and are taking on a major rebuild (and coordinator change) on defense.
9. SMU Mustangs
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2024)
Projected 2026 SP+: 12.1 (25th)
10-year SP+ average: 3.7 (28th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 17.5 (16th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: fourth among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: N/A (not provided for private universities)
Never mind SMU's uniquely sordid and fascinating history and look only at this moment in time: Over the past three seasons, only eight power-conference teams can top SMU's 31 combined wins: Oregon (38), Ohio State (37), Georgia (36), Texas (35), Ole Miss (34), Notre Dame (34), Michigan (32) and Alabama (32). That's seven teams with at least one semifinal run in that span, plus Georgia, the 2021-22 national champion. That's pretty good company.
Under Rhett Lashlee, SMU basically bought its way into the ACC and immediately became one of its more promising programs. We know what kind of recruiting base Dallas offers, and it appears this program is led by someone capable of getting the most out of it. Maybe that doesn't create a national title-level ceiling, but ... maybe it does?
10. Wisconsin Badgers
AP top-10 finishes: 14 (2000s peak: No. 7 in 2006, 2010 and 2017)
Projected 2026 SP+: 3.8 (53rd)
10-year SP+ average: 14.2 (fourth among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 30.9 (first among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 28th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $150.1 million
Not too long ago, Wisconsin would have been a surefire top-five team on a list like this. But after a run of 10 seasons of double-digit wins, with five top-10 finishes, between 2005-19, the Badgers first wobbled, then collapsed. They brought in Luke Fickell in what sure seemed like a home run hire in 2023, but he is 16-21, and his win total has sunk each season. Still, their 10-year averages show their potential, and their revenue figures are top-notch. It'd be great to see some proof of concept in 2026.
11. South Carolina Gamecocks
AP top-10 finishes: 3 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2013)
Projected 2026 SP+: 12.6 (24th)
10-year SP+ average: 6.9 (10th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.9 (18th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 21st among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $142.2 million
Steve Spurrier's remarkable early 2010s run showed us what a well-run South Carolina program can be capable of, and Shane Beamer's five-year tenure, frustrating and inconsistent as it might be, has provided a couple of elite, if brief, runs. Just a year ago, the Gamecocks were coming off of a nine-win season and were believed to have top-10 potential. Their ensuing collapse reminded us how hard it is to keep a historically lesser program pointed in the right direction, but few potential first-timers have more obvious upside.
12. Virginia Cavaliers
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 16 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 8.1 (37th)
10-year SP+ average: 0.1 (39th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 11.1 (43rd among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 16th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $161.9 million
Maybe no program on this list is more specifically trying to follow the Indiana model to success. In 2026, Virginia will combine Big Ten-level revenue -- no one on this list can top the $161.9 million UVA generated in the last fiscal year on record -- with maybe the most experienced roster in FBS. Tony Elliott's Cavaliers don't have Indiana's upside, but for the second straight year, they're going to roll out a transfer-heavy lineup full of grown men who have played lots of college ball. Does this approach leave you vulnerable to the occasional dud transfer class? Yes. It also led to an 11-win season in 2025.
13. Houston Cougars
AP top-10 finishes: 6 (2000s peak: No. 8 in 2015)
Projected 2026 SP+: 7.4 (38th)
10-year SP+ average: 2.3 (31st among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 12.6 (39th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: eighth among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $78.1 million
Over the last 12 months, Willie Fritz and Houston have proved capable of both winning double-digit games (the Cougars were 10-3 in 2025) and signing five-star quarterbacks. Landing Keisean Henderson, the No. 4 prospect of 2026, was a statement of intent, as was the ambitious signing of a high-level (and surely pretty expensive) transfer class that included three all-conference FBS offensive linemen and former Fritz player and Tulane star Makhi Hughes. The fundamental numbers shown above aren't particularly great, but Houston is aiming high.
14. Boise State Broncos
AP top-10 finishes: 5 (2000s peak: No. 4 in 2009)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.1 (49th)
10-year SP+ average: 6.9 (18th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 10.3 (49th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: N/A (power conferences only)
Last FY revenue: $50.6 million
The greatest ability, as they say, is availability. And if the first step to winning the CFP is being in it, Boise State's positioning must be taken into account. The Broncos remain the mid-major gold standard, even after last year's strange and frustrating 9-5 campaign. Over the past 27 seasons, they've won at least 10 games 19 times and taken home 17 conference titles, and they're obvious favorites in the first year of the freshly redesigned Pac-12.
BSU attracts star-level talent like almost no one in the Group of 6 can -- defensive end Jayden Virgin-Morgan was the highest-ranked G6 player in this year's preseason Player Rank, and Ashton Jeanty nearly won the Heisman in 2024. And while it's been a while since the Broncos took down a top-level team, they still came within three points of beating Oregon in 2024 and were done in only by a poor start against Penn State in the 2024 CFP.
15. Kentucky Wildcats
AP top-10 finishes: 2 (2000s peak: No. 12 in 2018)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.2 (47th)
10-year SP+ average: 9.6 (ninth among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 17.6 (15th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 22nd among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $159.1 million
Like rival Louisville, Kentucky derives a level of revenue from basketball that few others could hope for and also boasts recent gridiron success. Mark Stoops couldn't keep the good times rolling after 10-win seasons in 2018 and 2021, and last year's team was UK's worst in a decade. But the school grabbed former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein, and no new head coach in this cycle puts off more Potential Dan Lanning vibes.
Stein immediately made some aggressive moves to upgrade the Wildcats' line play, and his first Kentucky team will be big, physical and likely improved. We don't know nearly enough about the Wildcats' potential ceiling under Stein, but they have money and a young, hungry head coach. That's often an exciting combination.
16. Vanderbilt Commodores
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 15 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: 9.8 (29th)
10-year SP+ average: -2.2 (48th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 20.3 (10th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 13th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: N/A (not provided for private universities)
Clark Lea went 9-27 in his first three seasons at Vanderbilt but pulled off a miraculous (and strangely New Mexico State-flavored) turnaround -- first to 7-6 in 2024, then to 10-3 last fall. And like Houston's Willie Fritz, he parlayed that success with recruiting success, landing five-star QB Jared Curtis. That's certainly one way to follow up on the success of Diego Pavia & Co. We don't know what Vandy's capable of long term, and the Commodores' mostly poor play through the decades certainly tamps down their ranking on this list. But Indiana just proved that the past doesn't necessarily have to matter. Maybe it won't for Vandy either?
17. Arkansas Razorbacks
AP top-10 finishes: 14 (2000s peak: No. 5 in 2011)
Projected 2026 SP+: 5.6 (44th)
10-year SP+ average: 3.3 (29th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.2 (24th among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 32nd among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $152.5 million
Arkansas was once a genuine powerhouse: The Razorbacks enjoyed 12 top-10 finishes in the 24 seasons between 1959 and 1982, under first Frank Broyles and then Lou Holtz, and they claim the 1964 title thanks to an 11-0 finish (though they finished second in the AP poll). Since Holtz was hastily dismissed in 1983, however, they have only a single AP top-10 finish to their name. They haven't even finished in the top 20 in 14 seasons. They have history, and they have particularly rich donors with money to burn, which gives them a case to be ranked much higher on this list. But they have very little recent proof of concept. Can new head coach Ryan Silverfield awaken a sleeping giant?
18. Oklahoma State Cowboys
AP top-10 finishes: 4 (2000s peak: No. 3 in 2011)
Projected 2026 SP+: 6.9 (39th)
10-year SP+ average: 8.5 (11th among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 20.8 (ninth among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: 19th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $104.4 million
Like Wisconsin, OSU would have occupied a far higher place on this list had I made it a few years ago. Thanks to both Mike Gundy's commitment to innovation and the checkbooks of donors like T. Boone Pickens (after whom their stadium is now named), the Cowboys won double-digit games eight times between 2010-23 and came achingly close to a national title game bid in 2011. But Gundy's offense stopped innovating and he couldn't come close to solving the transfers-and-NIL era. OSU has gone just 4-20 over the past two seasons.
Thanks to the import of both coach Eric Morris -- maybe the single-best QB evaluator of the 2020s -- and a number of his North Texas stars from last season, however, the Pokes have a chance to immediately climb back up the Big 12 ladder. With offensive success and proper lessons learned, this is still a program with high-level potential.
19. Virginia Tech Hokies
AP top-10 finishes: 7 (2000s peak: No. 6 in 2000)
Projected 2026 SP+: 8.6 (36th)
10-year SP+ average: 4.7 (22nd among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 16.1 (26th among potential first-timers) .
Rittenberg ranking: 14th among potential first-timers
Last FY revenue: $113.0 million
Another fallen program with a chance at an immediate boost. James Franklin takes over a Tech team that won at least 10 games 14 times in the 22 seasons between 1995 and 2016 but has gone just 30-43 in the 2020s. Franklin built an excellent program at Penn State -- albeit one that could never quite figure out the final hurdle -- and if he simply recruits well (which he's already doing) and gets the booster arrows all pointed in the same direction, Tech should quickly reestablish at least a top-20 or top-30 level of play. Would the Hokies be capable of even more than that? We'll see.
20. James Madison Dukes
AP top-10 finishes: none (2000s peak: No. 19 in 2025)
Projected 2026 SP+: -0.9 (70th)
10-year SP+ average: 9.9 (eighth among potential first-timers)
10-year SP+ max: 12.3 (41st among potential first-timers)
Rittenberg ranking: N/A
Last FY revenue: N/A (not provided for private universities)
We're going to learn a lot about James Madison in 2026. The Dukes timed their FBS jump perfectly and have gone 32-8 over their past three seasons. Their past three hires went a combined 110-21 on the job, and they suffered only a brief setback following Curt Cignetti's departure for Indiana in 2024. By 2025, they were making their CFP debut with Bob Chesney. They appear to have the strongest non-Boise infrastructure in the G6, but with Chesney off to UCLA (and most of their starters gone), Billy Napier now becomes the Dukes' third head coach in four seasons. If they again rule the Sun Belt, then it's fair to guess they'll continue doing so -- and continue threatening for CFP bids -- for the foreseeable future. And again, to win the CFP, you first have to make the CFP.