My Week 9 card starts with asking what the scoring averages aren't telling us. New Mexico's biggest wins inflate expectations for its offense, while Northern Illinois' struggling defense gives UNLV a chance to look better than it has.
Then there's Miami, laying more than two touchdowns on the road before a trip to Notre Dame next week. I'm playing two totals and backing an underdog.
After a combined 8-2 between Mark Zinno and I last week, here's what we've got for Week 9.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
New Mexico at San Jose State UNDER 42.5
New Mexico averages 37 points per game, but I'm not expecting that offense to show up here. The Lobos scored 70 points against Mercyhurst and 61 against UTEP. They've scored 21 points in each of their last two games, with their preferred approach pretty clear: run the ball, play defense and make you work for everything.
Lobos running backs Scottre Humphrey and Kiefer Sibley should find room against San Jose State's run defense. That also means a moving clock, especially with New Mexico taking 32.5 seconds between snaps when leading after halftime, top-ten slowest pace in the FBS.
Spartans QB Luke Weaver has a tougher assignment. San Jose converts just 31% of third downs, bottom-ten, while New Mexico allows successful runs on fewer than 30% of attempts, which ranks in the top five in the country. I expect plenty of stalled drives.
New Mexico has allowed just 11 red-zone trips in seven games, and opponents have turned only five of those into touchdowns. The Lobos should have similar dominance here.
Northern Illinois at UNLV OVER 53.5
Northern Illinois just allowed Wyoming to gain 510 yards and score 41 points without needing a single turnover, and that's why I'm looking for points here. UNLV has been inconsistent offensively, but Rebels QB Jackson Arnold and RB Jai'Den Thomas get a defense allowing successful plays on more than half its snaps.
The Rebels should be able to run. NIU allows opponents to convert 56.5% of third and fourth downs, creating opportunities to extend drives and wear this defense down.
NIU can contribute, too. Huskies RB Telly Johnson Jr. averages 5.3 yards per carry against a UNLV defense that's in the bottom 20 in the country in yards per carry allowed. That gives the Huskies a way to stay out of passing situations, where sacks have hurt QB Taron Dickens.
UNLV slowing down with a lead is the concern, but NIU has scored over 20 points in two consecutive games. There's enough here for both offenses.
North Carolina +14.5. vs. Miami
Miami is the better team but I'm taking UNC at home with the Hurricanes headed to Notre Dame next week. That scheduling spot helps, but Carolina has already stayed competitive throughout the season.
Miami's run game has also been less explosive away from home. RB Javian Mallory averages 4.9 yards per carry on the road compared with 9.3 at home. Fellow RB Mark Fletcher Jr. drops from 5.9 to 4.5 yards, and neither has a road run longer than 19 yards. Making Miami string together drives gives UNC more chances to get a stop.
QB Darian Mensah is still excellent on the road, so I'm not expecting Carolina to shut this offense down. However, Tar Heels QB Billy Edwards Jr. can find Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman against Miami's more vulnerable pass defense. UNC has enough offense to stay involved. -- Pamela Maldonado
Mark Zinno's playing card
Florida-Georgia OVER 55.5
I heavily lean Florida plus the points in the game as Jon Sumrall has been excellent against the spread as an underdog in his coaching career, going 30-11 ATS as a road dog. He did it two weeks ago as a 12-point underdog to Texas in Austin and won the game outright. I'm going with the over because there are more game scripts that support it. If Florida is going to cover, they are going to have to score in the mid-to-high 20s on the low end. If you look at their two losses, they failed to get to 20 points. Both those losses still went over this number because the Florida defense couldn't stop them. If the Gators aren't pushing the score up, Kirby Smart will slow the game down and grind out a win. That's how this game stays under. Moreover, the Florida defense will likely have issues slowing down a UGA offense that has had two weeks to prepare. Florida's defense held a Power 4 opponent under 28 points for the first time all season against Texas. I don't think that happens two games in a row. Lastly, if there's one game where Smart doesn't take his foot off the gas pedal, it's this one. He knows it from his time as a player at UGA that this one is personal.
North Dakota State TT o33.5 (-135)
The Bison are coming off a tough loss to New Mexico and are in a bounce-back spot against an awful UTEP squad. The Miners have one of the worst overall defenses in the country, including a rush defense that's 124th in FBS, allowing 193.4 yards per game. That's a plus for the Bison offense that loves to run the ball. The biggest question here is that NDSU plays one of the slowest paces in the country. They may need a few turnovers/short fields to get some quick scores. UTEP allows nearly 38 points per game this year, so this is attainable. I moved this line down to 33.5 because it allows the Bison to settle for two field goals and land on 34 with a cover.
North Carolina +14.5
The situation, the number and the coach have me salivating at playing the Tar Heels here. Miami is the No.1 team in the country and has to travel to Notre Dame next week to face the Irish in the ultimate look ahead spot. Bill Belichick can still coach defense and these are spots where he can excel. For reference, North Carolina stayed within 11 points of Notre Dame in Chapel Hill back in Week 5. Miami and Notre Dame grade out very similarly here, so this is possible. Finally, getting over two touchdowns here matters as it leaves the back door open late if the Tar Heels are trailing by 21 or 17 and Miami is only interested in getting out with a win. This same thing happened against Notre Dame to make it a 37-26 final. All the pressure is on the Hurricanes here and it would be a signature moment for Belichick to pull off this upset. I don't think it happens, but he does keep it close.
Syracuse +10
SMU keeps beating lesser opponents and climbing up the rankings while no one seems to notice. Did anyone else notice that the Mustangs haven't played a road game since Sept. 19th? It will be 42 days between road games, and they lost the last one at Louisville. Syracuse finally has their QB back as Steve Angeli returned last week in the win over North Carolina. The JMA Wireless Dome is a strange place to play, especially for a Mustangs team that's never played there before. I smell outright upset here for the Orange, as they badly need a win to keep bowl hopes alive.
Iowa -3.5
Situationally, the Hawkeyes are the spot here but it also helps when they are the better team. Wisconsin is ranked for the first time since Week 2 of 2023, so it's an ideal time to fade them, because they aren't the 25th best team in the country. More than the letdown spot for the Badgers, the Hawkeyes are coming off a tough loss at Minnesota, which was the tail end of back-to-back road games. The Badgers have an offense that's ranked 118th in FBS and they won't be able to run the ball against Iowa's top-five run defense. Kirk Ferentz is 18-9-1 ATS at home against ranked opponents. The last time Wisconsin won at Kinnick Stadium was 2018, when Colts RB Jonathan Taylor was still a Badger.
Georgia Southern -5.5
If there is a bigger letdown spot in a small conference this year, I don't know where it would be. The Mountaineers gave James Madison their first regular season loss since Sept. 5th of last year, snapping an 18-game regular season win streak. Now they have to go on the road and face one of the top defenses in the Sun Belt? App State scored 18 points in the 4th quarter last week against JMU and I don't see that happening against Georgia Southern's defense. This number being this big gives me more confidence in the Eagles to come out on top.