I’ll lock into my official mock draft choices for the New Orleans Saints next week after our entire ESPN NFL Nation crew gets together for a televised draft show. For now, here’s how I’m handicapping the field for pick No. 13 with the NFL draft only nine days away. I’ll do the same exercise for pick No. 31 later this week.
Definitely gone before the Saints pick at No. 13:
OLB Dante Fowler Jr.
WR Amari Cooper
WR Kevin White
Likely gone before the Saints pick at No. 13:
OT/G Brandon Scherff
OLB Vic Beasley
CB Trae Waynes
WR DeVante Parker
One more pass rusher (Bud Dupree, Shane Ray or Randy Gregory)
One more offensive lineman (Andrus Peat or La'el Collins)
Best bets for the Saints at No. 13:
OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky. 6-4, 269. There's a good chance Dupree could go in the top 12. But it’s such a close call among Dupree, Ray and Gregory that I don’t want to eliminate any of them as realistic possibilities at No. 13. And Dupree would be my top choice for New Orleans if all three are available.
Earlier in the pre-draft process, Dupree was consistently rated behind Ray and Gregory by most analysts because his college production was spottier and he’s still viewed as a work in progress when it comes to diagnosing plays on the field. But more and more analysts and well-sourced reporters have begun to talk up Dupree as a top-13 pick because he’s more well-rounded than the smaller pass-rush specialists – which is why I think the Saints will like him best, too.
Dupree is 24 pounds heavier than Ray and 34 pounds heavier than Gregory, which gives him the size to line up as a defensive end at times. And he has more experience dropping back into pass coverage in college. That kind of versatility is key for the Saints, who run multiple looks out of defensive coordinator Rob Ryan’s base 3-4 alignment.
Dupree might be a work in progress in the NFL, but he can start out as a rotational player with veteran outside linebackersJunior Galette, Anthony Spencer and Parys Haralson.
OLB Shane Ray, Missouri. 6-3, 245. If Dupree rises, Ray could be the one who falls. He’s an outstanding pass rusher who had 13.5 sacks last year as the SEC’s Defensive Player of the Year. But he’s a bit one-dimensional, and he’d have to make a transition from playing defensive end to 3-4 outside linebacker.
It’s possible the Saints won’t have a problem with that. They used to ignore players like that when they ran a 4-3 base defense, but Ryan’s hybrid system gives them more flexibility. They could use Ray as a pass rush specialist on nickel downs to start with and hope he turns into a stud like Denver’s Von Miller.
DE Arik Armstead, Oregon. 6-7. 292. I’m very tempted to make Armstead the choice here because his upside is so tantalizing as an end/tackle with remarkable size and athleticism. Analysts are all over the map with Armstead’s draft projections since many see him as a raw developmental project who didn’t show enough toughness as a pass rusher in college (2.5 sacks last year). But he’s an excellent run defender with the potential to become much more.
Armstead would start out as a backup behind Cameron Jordan and Akiem Hicks in New Orleans, but both of those players are heading into the final year of their contracts. Even if they stay, the Saints could find ways to rotate all three into the mix.
Other possibilities:
Nose tackle isn’t the Saints’ top immediate need, but Washington’s Danny Shelton would be an upgrade over incumbents Brodrick Bunkley and John Jenkins. Texas' Malcom Brown has the versatility to play end or tackle.
I don’t think the Saints will completely ignore the offensive side of the ball if an offensive lineman like LSU's Collins or a receiver like Central Florida’s Breshad Perriman is the highest-rated player on their board. But they’d have to really love a receiver to pounce here since there should also be so much talent available at the position when they pick at No. 31 and 44.
Nebraska's Gregory has been a popular mock draft choice to the Saints, and he might be the best pass rusher in this year’s draft. But he comes with question marks about his size and his character. As I’ve written, I’d be surprised to see New Orleans emerge as the one team willing to roll the dice on him after they’ve stressed the importance of maturity and professionalism so much. If Gregory’s character isn’t an issue, he’ll go higher. If it is, he’ll fall lower.
Cornerback is a top need. If Michigan State's Waynes somehow falls to No. 13, he would be my pick for the Saints. I’m just not sure if New Orleans will have a high enough grade on Wake Forest's Kevin Johnson (a solid, well-rounded corner) or Washington’s Marcus Peters (a top talent who comes with character concerns).