Two do-or-die prelims. Four teams. One premier. The 2026 AFL season is nearing its conclusion, with four sides still in the hunt for this year's flag.
Will it be two-time reigning premiers Brisbane to salute for the threepeat? Will Fremantle finally break through for a maiden premiership? Can the Hawks complete the rebuild with a famous flag? Or is it possible Sydney defies the odds and expectations to win without its stars?
Here's a reason why each team left in the hunt can -- and cannot -- win the 2026 premiership.
Sydney
Why they can win the flag
Because if what Sydney did to Brisbane in the qualifying final wasn't a premiership statement, it's difficult to imagine what would be. Missing five suspended players, then losing skipper Callum Mills, the Swans smashed the dual reigning premier in every conceivable department, proving there is still more than enough quality left. Brodie Grundy gives them enormous presence around the ball, Errol Gulden remains one of the competition's most damaging users, and their forward mix looks frightening, Charlie Curnow, Logan McDonald and Tom Papley having combined for 16 goals. They didn't finish second at 18-5 with a percentage of 136.1 for no reason, of course. And now they get Fremantle at home at the SCG after a week off.
Why they can't
At some point, surely, the absences of such key players have to bite. Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordon, Riley Bice and now Mills represent an extraordinary amount of top-end talent removed from any team. And one superb final shouldn't completely erase what came before. Sydney had won only one of six home-and-away games against the other eventual top-six teams before September, while Fremantle beat the Swans by 38 points in Round 18. Get over the Dockers and it's either Hawthorn or Brisbane, both of whom have beaten them, too. The Swans have already performed one minor miracle. They may need two more.
Fremantle
Why they can win the flag
For 23 home-and-away rounds Fremantle was the best-performed team in the competition, and its semifinal win over Geelong looked much more like that version than the hesitant outfit Hawthorn exposed a week earlier. The Dockers finished minor premier at 19-4 with a percentage of 137.2, and against Geelong showed something arguably even more valuable than consistency: resilience. They led by 31, were headed during a furious Geelong comeback, then steadied to win by 14. Luke Jackson was enormous, Patrick Voss kicked four goals, and Josh Treacy responded strongly after his qualifying final shocker. And the prospective Grand Final match-ups shouldn't intimidate Fremantle. It has already beaten Sydney by 38 points and beat Brisbane by 25 points at the Gabba, though should Hawthorn be waiting instead, admittedly that's a different story. First, though, Sydney at the SCG. And Fremantle already knows its game stands up against the Swans.
Why they can't
The route to Grand Final day is now brutal. Fremantle surrendered the enormous advantage it earned as minor premier when Hawthorn dismantled it by 32 points at Optus Stadium. Instead of resting, it has had to survive a bruising semifinal, now flies across the country to tackle a fresh Sydney, then potentially makes another interstate trip for the big one. There remains a question, too, about how reliable Fremantle's best football is under extreme finals pressure. Against Hawthorn it became slow and conservative and managed only five goals. While Freo could rightly take confidence from beating Brisbane at the Gabba, the Hawks now are the obvious red flag, having already demonstrated how effectively they can deny Fremantle space, pressure its ball movement and make its forwards virtually irrelevant. The Dockers are capable of beating anyone left. But to win it from here will require three successive finals victories after their qualifying final defeat, without the benefit their minor premiership was supposed to provide.
Hawthorn
Why they can win the flag
Perhaps because no remaining team has made a more compelling September statement. Going to Perth to face a Fremantle side unbeaten at Optus Stadium was supposed to be one of football's toughest assignments. Hawthorn won by 32 points and held the minor premier to five goals, earning the Hawks a week's break. And should they get past Brisbane, neither prospective Grand Final opponent holds any particular fears. Hawthorn beat Sydney by 17 points at the MCG back in Round 2, overcoming a 20-point third-quarter deficit, and we've just seen what it did to Fremantle on the Dockers' own ground. Hawthorn defends aggressively, moves the ball quickly and has scoring options everywhere. James Sicily and Josh Battle anchor a strong defence, Jai Newcombe gives them midfield grunt, and the forward mix is difficult to contain. Two more wins at the MCG is the equation now. And the Hawks have already beaten both teams who could face them in the second leg.
Why they can't
There is one enormous piece of evidence sitting inconveniently in front of the Hawks: Brisbane beat them by 67 points only last month. It wasn't remotely ambiguous. The Lions won 125-58 at the Gabba and made Hawthorn's usually slick game look pedestrian. Venue and circumstances are different now, but before worrying about a Grand Final, Hawthorn has to beat the one remaining team which has given it a genuine football lesson recently. There's also considerably less big-stage experience than Brisbane possesses. If Hawthorn gets through, its records against Sydney and Fremantle provide genuine reassurance. The problem is getting there. Brisbane represents both its biggest recent defeat and the most battle-hardened September opponent imaginable.
Brisbane
Why they can win the flag
Do we really need reminding by now? Brisbane has spent the last few Septembers turning apparently difficult positions into premiership opportunities. After looking utterly shot against Sydney in the qualifying final, the Lions responded as champions are supposed to, smashing Adelaide by 53 points. Now there's Hawthorn, an opponent Brisbane demolished by 67 points barely six weeks ago. The Lions know their best football can pull the Hawks apart. Their potential Grand Final match-ups are more complicated, but hardly hopeless. Brisbane did beat Sydney by 43 points at the Gabba during the home-and-away season, evidence that when its pressure and defensive systems are humming, it can shut down the Swans' run. The personnel remains formidable and virtually nothing about the next fortnight will feel new to this group. Lachie Neale, according to StatMate, has 31 or more disposals in eight of his past nine games at the MCG. The only one he missed? He got injured, against Geelong, in last year's qualifying final. Hugh McCluggage, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft, too, have been through these games repeatedly, as has a forward line packed with scoring options. For all Brisbane's fluctuations this year, two more wins would surprise absolutely nobody.
Why they can't
Why not? Because both prospective Grand Final opponents also carry some fairly compelling evidence of their own. Sydney hasn't merely beaten Brisbane this year, it has done so twice emphatically - by 44 points in Round 1 and then by 53 in the qualifying final. That latest defeat was particularly sobering, the Swans kicking 21 goals and comprehensively beating the Lions around the contest. Fremantle presents another problem. The Dockers went to the Gabba in Round 12 and beat Brisbane by 25 points after leading by as much as 51. So should the Lions survive Hawthorn, they'd enter the big one against a team which has already shown it can hurt them badly. There's also the cumulative toll. Brisbane has gone deep into September year after year and, unlike Hawthorn, had to play a semifinal rather than freshen up. The Lions' ceiling remains as high as anyone's. But there's now enough evidence against both Sydney and Fremantle to suggest that anything below that ceiling won't be enough.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.