The men's AFC Asian Cup has been delayed to December 2027 due to regional security concerns. And in one fell swoop, the best-laid plans of Socceroos boss Tony Popovic and Football Australia have been torn asunder.
Suddenly, November fixtures against Qatar and Jordan, which Football Australia says are still going ahead despite the continental showpiece's postponement, have lost their ostensible purpose. No longer are they final tune-ups and auditions before Popovic names his squad for that tournament. Instead, they've become echoes of best-laid plans now wrecked, with the it feeling almost like the squad has been placed in a holding pattern.
Ostensibly, the sudden deferment would allow focus from the window to switch from putting the final touches on preparation for a very winnable tournament, to experimentation and blooding of youth. It's now 10 months until the start of qualifiers for the 2030 FIFA World Cup and 13 months until the Asian Cup's new start date, so it makes sense.
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But with the AFC having previously signalled that they didn't need to make a call on postponement until late November, and most federations not anticipating any updates until after the window, there may be scant time to adjust. Several nations have already named their squads, and while Popovic wasn't due to name his until Friday, the extensive planning and preparation that the coach and his staff do for these windows -- let alone the logistical work involved in sorting players' travel and documentation -- doesn't really make implementing sudden, wholesale changes.
And that's all before Popovic -- and Football Australia -- grapple with what this all means for his future.
The coach's pre-World Cup contract extension only lasted through to March 2027 -- a decision that we have since learned was made at Popovic's behest. And there was no clause in it triggering an automatic extension if the Asian Cup was delayed, meaning new negotiations will need to take place if he's to remain in charge beyond this month's games.
Given the strident public backing he's received from Football Australia, it was always likely that Popovic would be able to stick around for another year if he wanted to. And speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald on Wednesday, football boss Heather Garriock confirmed as much. But following on from a World Cup in which he led the Socceroos to the knockout stages, and just months after receiving praise from Carlo Ancelotti, Popovic will be negotiating from a position of strength, with his stocks likely to be high if he does wish to pursue a return to club football. And there is interest, according to Garriock.
And if he does return, Football Australia will be hoping it's on a deal that takes him through to the end of the 2030 cycle, as a shorter, 12-month extension could rule them out of other targets such as Kevin Muscat -- who is set to be a free agent following the imminent end of the Chinese Super League season -- and others that would be interested right now, but may not be willing to wait until the start of 2028.
But that's going to be a question for the future -- probably the first one put to Popovic the next time he steps in front of a microphone -- and before we get to that, there's a squad announcement coming.
Given the rapidly changing circumstances, those outside of Popovic's circle can't know exactly how plans have changed over the past week, so this window's ESPN depth chart has projected a close to full-strength squad, with some scope for the coach's habit of throwing up a rogue selection. It also doesn't account for the possibility of players declining to travel to the Middle East if they're concerned about regional instability, which they'll be able to do without penalty. And as ever, it represents not what ESPN's squad would be but, instead, an attempt to predict the coach's thinking, and only players who have declared for Australia or most recently represented one of its junior national teams are considered.
Goalkeeper
Starter: Patrick Beach
Reserves: Mathew Ryan, Paul Izzo
In the mix: Harrison Devenish-Meares, Jacob Chapman, Tom Glover
Popovic insisted that Ryan's time in the green-and-gold wasn't over after leaving the skipper out of his squad for the Brazil series, meaning that his presence (or absence) in November looms as a major talking point. Especially given the veteran custodian appears to be one of Australia's three best-performing goalkeepers, with regular LaLiga starts for Levante, and Beach was recently dropped at new club Troyes.
Admittedly, it's not unfathomable that the staff could leave out either him or Izzo (now firmly re-established as Randers' No. 1) to look at other keepers. Devenish-Meares has been knocking on the door, for instance, while Chapman has had a camp to listen and learn. Glover is more of a known quantity, but he's been starting week-in and week-out for RB Omiya Ardija in the J2 league, too. But given his longstanding captaincy, his centurion status, and the massive respect he demands in the dressing room, another absence by Ryan would be noteworthy.
Nonetheless, Beach is probably still Australia's No. 1, even if the 23-year-old has been having a torrid time in France. And with Burkina Faso international Hillel Konaté keeping clean sheets in back-to-back starts, a speedy restoration at the Stade de l'Aube doesn't look likely. That's not ideal from a Socceroos perspective, but given the faith he's received from Popovic and goalkeeping coach Frank Juric, it's reasonable to project that Beach will be given the chance to find form with a national team that sees him as the long-term starter.
Left back
Starter: Aziz Behich
Reserve: Kasey Bos
Other contenders: Daniel Bennie, Callum Elder, Kye Rowles, James Overy
Injured: Jordan Bos
Behich probably doesn't have the best poker face. You can tell because when even the faintest suggestion of him losing his place in the Socceroos comes up during his media duties, competitiveness begins coming off him in waves. And after his back-to-back starts against Brazil, the start of the new A-League Men season, and Jordan Bos' continued injury rehabilitation, he'd likely be the first man up if the Asian Cup started tomorrow.
Nonetheless, after being in two camps without seeing the field, Kasey Bos could be in line as Popovic assesses if he's a viable option if his brother isn't fit for January -- even if he started in a rather unfortunate 9-0 loss to FC Twente over the weekend. The same goes for Bennie, who is starting regularly on the left for Dundee United and was rated highly enough to be a part of the Socceroos' pre-World Cup training camp in Sarasota.
Center backs
Starters: Harry Souttar, Alessandro Circati, Lucas Herrington
Reserves: Miloš Degenek, Gianni Stensness, Dylan Leonard
Other contenders: Jake Girdwood-Reich, Anthony Pantazopoulos, Panagiotis Kikianis, Kye Rowles
Injured: Kai Trewin, Cameron Burgess, Dan Hall, Jason Geria
The center back slot remains the most settled position in the team, with Circati, Souttar, and Herrington well-established. Injury could strike, admittedly, and Popovic's willingness to spring surprises at the selection table means nothing's ever certain, but there's little reason to project that.
But while it may be difficult to crack the starting XI, Stensness is doing his best to give Popovic a headache. Not only did the 27-year-old net in Viking FK's 3-3 draw with Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League and play a full 90 in their 4-1 win over Sabah FK on Wednesday, but, more relevant to his defensive duties, he's been starting week in and week out for them in both Europe and at home, where they're in a pitched battle with Bodø/Glimt for the Norwegian title.
Further, while the duo have established themselves as regulars thanks to their professionalism and standard-setting presence, Geria's withdrawal just 25 minutes into Albirex Niigata's win over Ventforet Kofu on Tuesday and Degenek's absence from Apoel Nicosia's league lineup over the last month opens the door for fresh faces if Popovic chooses.
Right back
Starter: Jacob Italiano
Reserve: Kealey Adamson
Other contenders: Raphael Borges Rodrigues, Fran Karačić, Joshua Rawlins
Injured: Lewis Miller, Kai Trewin, Ryan Strain
Italiano was only just back from injury when he was named in the squad to face Brazil and copped a nasty head knock in the first game in Townsville, but still started and performed strongly in both games. And while he missed Grazer AK's recent clash through injury, Austrian reports said he was close to playing, which should signal availability.
And even if he misses, there's plenty of talent behind him putting their hands up. After being part of multiple Socceroos camps without playing, Adamson is paying his dues with regular Championship starts for Queens Park Rangers, and it really wouldn't surprise to see him debut in November. Borges Rodrigues has been starting regularly for Burton Albion a tier below, while Rawlins, though yet to sit and learn in camp, has logged more than 1000 minutes for Dundee United up in Scotland.
Any chance that Adamson, Rawlins, Borges Rodrigues or any other right back gets will need to be taken, though, as reports have indicated that the plan at Blackburn Rovers is for Miller to be back playing by Christmas -- meaning the one-time nailed-on starter under Popovic will likely be primed to push for national team selection soon.
Central midfielders
Starters: Paul Okon-Engstler, Jackson Irvine,
Reserves: Alex Robertson, Patrick Yazbek, Aiden O'Neill
Other contenders: Cameron Devlin, Ajdin Hrustić, Dylan Scicluna, Denis Genreau, Mathew Leckie, Quinn MacNicol, Jonny Yull
The Brazil series represented the first time that we'd seen Irvine and Okon-Engstler start together and, given the encouraging signs that emerged -- Okon-Engstler's composure and control complementing the all-action approach of Irvine -- it's unlikely that's the last time we'll see the duo take the park together.
However, Irvine's wife Jemilla has just given birth to their first child, so none could blame him for wanting to stay at home to support his partner. And if he does miss, that would give O'Neill, regularly playing for New York City FC after recovering from injury, a chance to resume the partnership he had with Okon-Engstler at the start of the World Cup. One of Irvine or O'Neill alongside Okon-Engstler is probably a better fit than pairing Irvine and O'Neill, anyway.
However, there's definitely also scope for Popovic to test combinations with the likes of newly crowned Supporters Shield winner Yazbek, Robertson, Hrustić, Devlin, or anyone else who catches his eye.
Wingers
Starters: Nestory Irankunda, Connor Metcalfe
Reserves: Marcus Younis, Riley McGree, Cristian Volpato, Awer Mabil
Other contenders: Eli Adams, Daniel Arzani, Yaya Dukuly, Nishan Velupillay, Marco Tilio, Mathew Leckie, Martin Boyle, Craig Goodwin
After stealing the show in Townsville, Irankunda has returned to Lisbon and enjoyed a run of starts for Sporting CP. And while he's in for a challenge after Rui Borges' sacking and the reported arrival of Paulo Fonseca (at least he's used to coaching sackings after being at Watford), he's the most obvious name in a positional group packed with talent, but plenty of questions.
McGree, for instance, is starting regularly as Middlesbrough stage another push for the Premier League and is the kind of player that can flat out win games for the Socceroos. However, as good as we know McGree is, do the shifts that Metcalfe has put in for the national team -- and the obvious esteem in which he is held by the coaching staff -- mean he's earned the right to be seen as a starter? Younis made his debut in Queensland and will be eager to kick on, too.
Then there's Volpato. After missing the Brazil series through injury, the supremely talented 22-year-old has returned to Serie A action with Sassuolo and was just handed a contract extension through 2031 by the Neroverdi. He's a massive asset for the Socceroos. However, his return to the field means that this is the first window since his run-in with NSW Police in which he's available for selection, with it unclear if Football Australia or Popovic will pursue their own disciplinary action.
After starting the new A-League season in red-hot form and netting against Sydney FC over the weekend, Mabil is doing a lot to push for his first selection since the World Cup, too. He's also been played as a No. 9 by Aurelio Vidmar and, given the injury issues the Socceroos are experiencing there, that's a big plus. If Mabil does return, it may be at the expense of Arzani, who would merit a call-up after playing and getting goal involvements with Ferencváros, but who might need to show more consistency.
Striker
Starter: *shrugs*
Reserves: Brandon Borrello, John Iredale
Other contenders: Zac Sapsford, Musa Touré, Kusini Yengi, Thomas Waddingham
Injured: Mohamed Touré, Archie Goodwin, Noah Botić, Tete Yengi
The striking position, as ever, is perplexing. After Mohamed Touré went down with a shoulder injury on the eve of the last window, Popovic opted not to call up a like-for-like replacement, instead tapping Yengi as his lone natural No. 9 and starting him in back-to-back games. That followed a World Cup in which he only brought two out-and-out strikers, with Irankunda instead shifting centrally when desired.
Does that mean that Popovic sees Yengi as his pure striking alternative to Mohamed Touré? He does bring a profile that -- as demonstrated by his form in the J1 League and Machida Zelvia's run to last season's Asian Champions League Elite final -- is suited to Asian football. And if you're trying to figure out how to get a combination of Irankunda, McGree, Volpato, and Metcalfe on the park, then moving the former central helps those efforts.
But this assumes Yengi is available, which is looking increasingly unlikely. The towering striker pulled out of the warm-up ahead of Zelvia's Oct. 21 win over Shimizu S-Pulse and hasn't featured since, missing heavyweight clashes with Vissel Kobe and Gamba Osaka, and an Asian Champions League Two meeting with Shanghai Shenhua.
So who else is out there? Iredale has a case, as while his midseason arrival hasn't stopped K-League outfit Gwangju from struggling, he's been banging them in, scoring 11 goals in 18 games, including eight in his last six. Sapsford is another option given he recently started netting against top-flight sides again in Scotland, but his form with Dundee United hasn't moved Popovic to this point; will it now? Borrello, meanwhile, has been trusted by Popovic in the past, and netted for the Western Sydney Wanderers in their big win over Auckland FC, while Kusini Yengi has started to get minutes with Sanfrecce Hiroshima and at one point was Popovic's preferred starter.
Coach
Starter: Tony Popovic
Other Contenders: Kevin Muscat, John Aloisi, Mark Milligan, Steve Corica, Nick Montgomery, Trevor Morgan
We've already gone over the conundrum that Popovic and Football Australia find themselves in with the Asian Cup's postponement. And it's almost certain to be the dominant discussion point for the November window as a result of that announcement.
And while it's highly unlikely a resolution will be reached by the time the squad disperses for the final time in 2026, the need for surety -- both for the squad and Football Australia's own efforts to ensure a quality coach is in place -- means that it's imperative a resolution is reached quickly.
ESPN's projected Socceroos squad to face Qatar and Jordan
Goalkeepers: Patrick Beach, Mathew Ryan, Paul Izzo
Defenders: Aziz Behich, Kasey Bos, Harry Souttar, Alessandro Circati, Lucas Herrington, Gianni Stensness, Dylan Leonard, Miloš Degenek, Jacob Italiano, Kealey Adamson
Midfielders: Paul Okon-Engstler, Jackson Irvine, Aiden O'Neill, Patrick Yazbek, Alex Robertson
Forwards: Nestory Irankunda, Connor Metcalfe, Riley McGree, Marcus Younis, Cristian Volpato, Tete Yengi, Brandon Borello, John Iredale
Coach: Tony Popovic