One win? Two? Unbeaten? After an underwhelming 2025, a home World Cup on the horizon, and the end of Joe Schmidt's tenure, there will be tepid expectations for the Wallabies' upcoming three Tests, but a two-win pass mark should be the only yard stick to measure progress within the squad.
Finishing their 2025 season with five wins from 15 Tests, including a solitary win over the British and Irish Lions and a disastrous end-of-year Europe tour that saw the side go winless in all four matches, a fast start to their 2026 season will be imperative for the Wallabies as they build to next year's World Cup.
Under the care of Joe Schmidt -- who was entrusted with rebuilding a program that had fallen to its lowest depths -- the Wallabies have shown flashes of brilliance, their drought-breaking wins over the Springboks at Ellis Park and England at Twickenham two particular highlights, but they have also shown they're a side that easily falls back into bad habits.
A "tendency to blow hot and cold" was outgoing assistant coach Laurie Fisher's assessment of the side ahead of their opening Nations Championship clashes against Ireland, France, and Italy. Meanwhile, Max Jorgensen told media: "when we're at our best, not many teams can beat us."
He's not wrong. A hot Wallabies side downed the Lions in Sydney before an even hotter team tore the Springboks apart in Johannesburg just last year. They have the chance to do something similar when they kick-off their 2026 campaign against Ireland in front of a sold-out Allianz stadium.
If the Wallabies start hot and stay hot, two wins -- perhaps even three -- are well within their grasp. Anything lukewarm or colder and the Wallabies will be dusted.
All three sides the Wallabies faced in their final three matches of the 2025 season. All three they competed against only to turn cold.
Excuses could be made for their poor northern tour: injuries, fatigue, player availability. Although Jorgensen would have none of that: "Everyone knows by the end of the season you're not going to be where you were at the start, but that's no excuse. We just needed to be better." They have none to fall back on this time though.
World No.3 Ireland is a stern test to kick off their season -- they fell 46-19 to the green machine last year -- but with a settled squad and an "extra" week of training, expectations will be they can push the game to the edge and take it to the wire especially given the high-calibre of stars who'll be missing.
The losses are headlined by captain Caelan Dorris who was struck down during Leicester's URC final win over the Bulls, while Jack Crowley, Andrew Porter, and Aussie Mack Hansen have also failed to make the flight. There's no lack of talent, though, with Jamison Gibson-Park and Hugo Keenan out-and-out threats.
But it could open the door and present the perfect opportunity for the Wallabies to get one back after last year's poor performance and end their five-game losing streak to Ireland. It wouldn't be the first hoodoo Schmidt's men have broken over the last two years.
Lessons from slow starts must be heeded, though.
In all bar a few Tests in 2025 the Wallabies trailed from the start. Some, they clawed their way back to victory, but many more the deficit was just too big. It's already front of mind for the Wallabies.
"In Test match footy you have to start fast, and you have to be good for 80 minutes," Jorgensen said. "A couple of those games last year we weren't, so that's what we want to try and build: consistently good games where we start fast and where we're sharp for the full 80 minutes.
"If you look at training this week and over the past week or so, it's been really sharp, really good, so we're looking ready for the first half."
To take two from three will be a hard task with France sending one of their strongest touring squads for some time -- including Antoine Dupont who is expected to be available for the Wallabies Test in Brisbane -- while Italy are not the walk overs they have been in past, claiming two victories over the Wallabies in four years. But anything less should not be accepted.
This side came within inches of taking the Lions series to a decider in Sydney. They pushed the Springboks in their second Test in South Africa. Had the game within their grasp at Eden Park and have more than enough talent and resilience to push and defeat two of the top four nations to open their season, they now must find the polish.
If the Wallabies are to be serious contenders in 2027, the journey to the top starts now. There can be no more lukewarm performances, it's time they bring the heat.