Penrith scraped home against an enthusiastic Eels team on Thursday night in Parramatta to kick off Round 21 of the NRL season. With just seven more rounds to go before the finals, the Panthers have been showing signs of uncharacteristic vulnerability. Clouds of doubt have moved in to darken their seemingly inevitable march to another premiership. How did we reach the point where the Panthers were seen to be such certainties this year, and what has happened to them?
The salary cap is designed to help spread playing talent more evenly across the NRL competition. No one team can dominate for a length of time without losing some of their best players. From 2020 to 2024, the Panthers appeared in five grand finals, winning the last four of them. The salary cap played its part, plenty of players left -- many of the better players at that.
From the 2020 grand final loss to Melbourne Storm they today have six players and coach Ivan Cleary remaining. In the backline, Nathan Cleary, Dylan Edwards, and Brian To'o are still running around in the Panthers jersey, while in the forwards they have Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, and Moses Leota.
It was a steady drain, but remarkably the club had such a solid junior and recruitment set-up in place that talented players were waiting in the wings to step into the voids. Cleary's systems allowed them to slot in, play their part and continue the successful run.
They started the 2025 season very poorly by their lofty standards, winning only two of their first eight games to languish at the bottom of the NRL ladder. They slowly built familiarity within their new-look backline and won 10 and drew one of their last 16 games to squeak into seventh place.
They then knocked the Warriors and Bulldogs out of the finals with convincing victories, before falling one win short of a sixth successive grand final appearance when narrowly beaten by the Broncos. The Panthers were uncomfortable spectators as the Broncos defeated the Storm to win the 2025 title.
They then started the 2026 season like a team that really was not happy about missing out in 2025. They won 12 of their opening 13 games, many convincingly, including a combined 76-10 points tally against the two teams that did play in that grand final.
After rocketing to the top ladder, they hit a very patchy stretch, starting with a one-point loss to the struggling Titans in Round 16. They followed that with a more convincing defeat at the hands of the Cowboys, a big win over the Rabbitohs, and last week's two-point loss to the Broncos. Had the Queensland teams managed to hack the code that has made the Panthers such a formidable side?
The end of the Origin period can take some of the blame, players can come back from the highs of that elite competition physically battered and mentally exhausted, but the Panthers have never really struggled this badly before.
Once again against the Eels, we saw defensive frailties up the middle and on the edges. That's something the premiership-winning Panthers rarely suffered. The Eels played with energy, with Mitchell Moses precise in his aiming of players through half gaps in the Panthers' line. Penrith players were seen falling off tackles, as the quick moving waves of attack overwhelmed them.
Into the second half they were rescued by a mountain of possession and several 50/50 calls going their way. Call it coincidence, but referee Gerard Sutton has an unerring knack for being in charge when an underdog's gallant efforts fall short. In the end, the Eels could not hold on, and the class of the Panthers shone through.
Thanks to their recent struggles, the Panthers are far from wrapping up the Minor Premiership. They now sit two wins above the Warriors, who play the Bulldogs on Saturday evening, and they have a very testing run home. Every opposition coach will be watching the video of these past few weeks, identifying seldom-seen weaknesses in the Panthers and directing their players on the best way to exploit them.
The rejuvenated Raiders are next up in Mudgee with coach Ricky Stuart sure to have his plan fine tuned for the encounter. The following week they travel to Auckland to face the formidable Warriors, before taking on the Roosters, Storm, Bulldogs, and Tigers.
Ivan Cleary's record as a coach is there for all to see. He will not allow the Panthers' struggles to continue. He will find the answers and believes that talk of a right edge weakness has been overstated.
"If they've been targeted for two years, we still remain the best defensive team," Cleary argued.
"There's definitely some worries tonight, but on the balance, they can do better than that.
"We didn't play that well and certainly didn't start well.
"That'll be good for us and there's a quarter of a season to go and in one way it's good that you can not play your best, come from behind, go through some hard periods and still get the win."
The Panthers will be there when finals start. And they will be ready. It would take a fool to suggest that they can't turn this around and win another premiership. But, the gate is slightly ajar now, other teams can see a way through, and a Panthers' victory is no longer a foregone conclusion.