Let's start with this: Only good teams go undefeated. It's one thing to win a game or two, but if you're starting 6-0, you're a good team. The Minnesota Vikings are undoubtedly a good team.
But not all 6-0 teams are created equal. The 1999 Rams beat their first six opponents by an average of 25.7 points. That is dominance. Compare that with this year's Vikings, who have won four of their six games by less than a touchdown.
So, are the Vikings the "worst" 6-0 team in NFL history? To answer that question, I used my proprietary DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings and simple point differential to look at every team that started 6-0 since the move to the 16-game season in 1978.
The good news for the Vikings is not only are they not the worst 6-0 team in the past 50 years, but that there's a team that was a little worse that won the Super Bowl.
Here's a look at eight of the worst 6-0 teams of all time, and what history says will happen next.
8. 2012 Atlanta Falcons
DVOA: 18.6% (ninth)
Point differential: +58
The Falcons started the 2012 season 6-0 by feasting on an unsustainable turnover margin. They had 17 takeaways in the first six games and turned the ball over only seven times. The Falcons picked up a 27-3 win over the Chargers, but also four wins by less than a touchdown, including a last-second 55-yard field goal they needed to beat the Raiders, who finished 4-12.
The Falcons were at least balanced in their good-but-not-greatness, however. DVOA ranked them ninth on offense, 11th on defense and 10th on special teams after six games.
What happened next: The turnover margin was, in fact, unsustainable. In their remaining 10 games, the Falcons had a turnover margin of just plus-3. However, they still went 7-3 over the remainder of the season. An easy schedule that ranked 27th in average DVOA of opponent helped. In the playoffs, the Falcons won a hard-fought battle over the Seahawks 30-28 but then fell to San Francisco 28-24 in the NFC Championship Game when Atlanta's attempted late comeback drive ran out of gas on the 10-yard line.
7. 1985 Los Angeles Rams
DVOA: 17.8% (eighth)
Point differential: +44
This team was surprisingly similar to this year's Vikings, driven by excellent defense (second in DVOA through six games) and special teams (fourth). Instead of a free agent quarterback from another NFL team, the Rams' offense was led by CFL star Dieter Brock in his only NFL season. Unlike the current Vikings, the Rams were a run-first team with superstar running back Eric Dickerson.
What happened next: The Rams shut out Kansas City in Week 7 and then stumbled, with a 4-5 record the rest of the way. That still gave them the NFC West title by one game over San Francisco. In the divisional round, the Rams shut out Dallas 20-0. Then, the eventual champion Bears destroyed the Rams 24-0 in the NFC Championship Game, and Brock went 10-for-31 with 66 passing yards.
6. 2026 Minnesota Vikings
DVOA: 17.5% (sixth)
Point differential: +51
The Vikings have won their first six games in an incredibly imbalanced fashion. They rank 30th in offensive DVOA, ahead of only the 1-6 Titans and 0-6 Chargers. The Vikings also rank second in defensive DVOA, trailing only Seattle (due to opponent adjustments), and first in special teams.
As I noted earlier, four of Minnesota's wins have been by one score, with the exceptions being their season-opening 39-22 win over Green Bay and a 23-13 victory over New Orleans in Week 5. However, the Vikings lead the league in point differential per game at 8.5, ahead of the 49ers at 8.3.
What happens next: The problem for the Vikings going forward is that offensive performance is more predictive of the future than defensive or special teams' performance. That's the main reason the Vikings rank only 16th in ESPN's forward-looking FPI despite being undefeated. The FPI simulations give the Vikings an average of 11.7 wins this season, with just a 4.7% chance to win the Super Bowl.
It's worth noting that by average DVOA of opponent, the Vikings have played the second-easiest schedule in the league so far, ahead of only Kansas City. They have the fifth-hardest-rated schedule going forward, including the second-toughest schedule of opposing offenses behind only Tennessee.
5. 2000 Minnesota Vikings
DVOA: 13.8% (11th)
Point differential: +43
Unlike this year's Vikings, the 2000 edition was driven by offense: Daunte Culpepper, in his first season as an NFL starter, throwing to Randy Moss and Cris Carter. The Vikings ranked fourth in offensive DVOA but 23rd on defense after six games. Five of their six wins came by one possession; the lone exception was a 28-16 win over Chicago, which was 1-5.
What happened next: The Vikings went 5-5 over their final 10 games, although the final loss to the Packers came with their starters sitting on Christmas Eve. By the end of the season, the Vikings had dropped to 18th in DVOA, exceedingly low for a team with an 11-5 record. The Vikings won their divisional round matchup with the Saints, who were only 15th in DVOA, and then were embarrassed 41-0 by the Giants in the NFC Championship Game.
4. 2006 Indianapolis Colts
DVOA: 11.8% (ninth)
Point differential: +49
The 2006 Colts were the polar opposite of the 2026 Vikings. After six games, the Colts ranked second in offensive DVOA with Peyton Manning at quarterback but just 22nd on defense and 30th on special teams. Only one of their first six opponents finished the season with a winning record (the 10-6 Jets).
What happened next: The Colts kept winning to start the season 9-0 before they lost to the Cowboys in Week 11. The Colts finished the season 3-3 and finished 12-4. By the end of the regular season, the Colts led the league in offensive DVOA but were 25th on defense and special teams.
Then, safety Bob Sanders returned from an injury, and the Colts' defense totally flipped the switch. They held Kansas City and Baltimore to fewer than 10 points in the playoffs. They came back from a 15-point halftime deficit to take out the rival Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Then, the Colts beat the Bears 29-17 to win the Super Bowl. It's hard to imagine that this team provides any guidance on what will happen with the Vikings, because the Colts' powerful offense makes them such a clear contrast.
3. 2015 Carolina Panthers
DVOA: 11.0% (seventh)
Point differential: +52
The Panthers ranked seventh in DVOA on offense and defense after their 6-0 start. They were an interesting team because they were quite imbalanced on both sides of the ball. They were much better running than passing, but the defense was much better against the pass than the run. Despite the low DVOA, three of their first six wins came by multiple scores.
What happened next: The Panthers marched through the easiest schedule in the NFL that season, not losing until Week 16 against the Falcons. The Panthers' defense improved, eventually finishing second in the NFL by DVOA. Quarterback Cam Newton was named league MVP. In the playoffs, the Panthers dispatched the Seahawks and Cardinals before a 24-10 loss in Super Bowl 50 to the Broncos. We'll get to Denver in a moment.
2. 1983 Dallas Cowboys
DVOA: 9.7% (seventh)
Point differential: +50
The Cowboys didn't look bad through their first five games, although their wins were built on a lot of defensive and special teams touchdowns, which tend to be unrepeatable. The Cowboys were only 14th on offensive DVOA but sixth on defense. In Week 6, the Cowboys needed overtime to beat Tampa Bay, which finished the season 2-14, and that's the main reason they rank as one of the two worst 6-0 teams.
What happened next: The Cowboys improved a bit and finished the season fifth in DVOA. They went 6-4 over their final 10 games. Though the first two losses were very close, they were destroyed by Washington (31-10) and San Francisco (42-17) in the final two games of the regular season. That last game was meaningless as Washington had already clinched the NFC East, but coach Tom Landry played all of his starters against the 49ers anyway.
The next week, the 12-4 Cowboys hosted the wild-card game against the 9-7 Rams and lost 24-17 at home.
1. 2015 Denver Broncos
DVOA: 8.5% (ninth)
Point differential: +37
The 2015 Broncos were the worst 6-0 team of the past 50 years, whether you look at DVOA or just point differential. They were also the team most similar to the 2026 Vikings. Peyton Manning had declined a bit in the second half of 2014, but he fell off a cliff in his final NFL season. The Broncos ranked last in offensive DVOA despite being undefeated. However, they ranked second on defense (behind the Jets) and 10th on special teams. Five of Denver's six wins were decided by a touchdown or less.
After Week 6, the Broncos were ranked only 11th in ESPN FPI. (Carolina, which was 5-0 at the time, ranked 10th.)
What happened next: This is the best-case scenario for Minnesota. We know that offense tends to be more predictive than defense, but it isn't always that way.
The 2015 Broncos kept playing fantastic defense, while the offense found its legs a little bit when Manning got hurt and Brock Osweiler replaced him. Denver ended the season 23rd in offensive DVOA, including an above-average offense in the seven games started by Osweiler. The Broncos went 6-4 over their last 10 games but snagged the AFC's top seed thanks to overtime head-to-head wins against the Patriots and Bengals.
The Broncos won their first playoff game over the Steelers 23-16. In the AFC Championship Game, the Broncos topped the Patriots 20-18 when a missed Stephen Gostkowski extra point attempt forced the Patriots to go for two to tie the score at the end, and they couldn't convert. Then, in Super Bowl 50, the Broncos had a dominating defensive performance and took out the Panthers.