ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. -- Josh Allen is quantifiably the best goal-line rusher in NFL history -- well, at least since 1977.
There's no hyperbole here. No recency bias. No twisting the numbers to make them say something they don't. It's just a fact, one as plain as Allen wearing No. 17 for the Buffalo Bills.
Dating back to 1977 (sorry, Jim Brown fans) when play-by-play data for NFL games became available, 153 players have carried from the 1- or 2-yard line at least 30 times. Allen, who's carried 53 times, has converted those carries into 43 touchdowns, a scoring rate of 81.1% to top the list.
No one is within five percentage points of Allen's scoring rate, and only three players (Hall of Fame running back Earl Campbell, MVP quarterback Cam Newton and mid-aughts battering ram T.J. Duckett) land within 15 percentage points of Allen.
Allen has seven goal-line rushing touchdowns this season -- one of the reasons the Bills are 5-1 -- in just six games. The only quarterbacks who've ever reached seven goal-line TDs over a full season are Newton, Jalen Hurts and Allen himself. Heck, Allen's already halfway toward besting the single-season mark for short-yardage TDs set by any player, which stands at 13 -- set by Jamaal Williams in 2022.
Ask Allen, his teammates and his coaches and they'll tell you there are nights of intricate, bespoke game-planning required to make these sneak plays work. But there's also an awareness in the locker room that's a tad unnecessary. As one teammate told ESPN, the plays work because Allen's bigger and stronger than just about any other goal-line threat.
For all the tendency evaluations and pre-snap motions and dummy counts the Bills can throw at opponents, so much of the success can be simplified to Allen being a one-of-one siege weapon.
"I wish I could tell you that it's just 'Hey, we just put it up' and then move on to the next play," coach Joe Brady says. "But there's a lot that goes into it. Maybe sometimes too much. We just are fortunate that we have a 6-foot-4, 230 or 6-foot-5, whatever he is, guy that usually does a good job going and getting it."
Tush push effect
With 87 career rushing touchdowns, Allen has already crossed the goal line more times than any QB in NFL history, and his eight rushing touchdowns this season is tied for the league lead and is on pace to break his and Hurts' single-season rushing touchdowns record for a quarterback (15).
He was in rarified air to start the season, becoming only the fourth player to rush for multiple touchdowns in the first three games -- matching Priest Holmes (2003), Stephen Davis (1999) and Hall of Famer Jim Brown (1958).
With 39 rushing yards on Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens (1 p.m. ET, CBS), Allen would become the fifth QB in league history to surpass 5,000 for a career, joining Lamar Jackson, Michael Vick, Russell Wilson and Newton. With two more rushing touchdowns, Allen will become the eighth player this century, regardless of position, to run for double-digit touchdowns in four consecutive seasons.
Before getting too much further, let's be honest and address the tush-push-shaped elephant in the room. Campbell didn't have a tight end giving him a boost.
When Newton sprung up for a Superman celebration, there was never a fullback standing next to him pretending to be his greatest supporter -- à la Jimmy Olsen. Meanwhile, 22 of Allen's 43 short-yardage TDs (51%) have come on traditional push plays.
Two things, though: First off, changes to rules, strategies and circumstances unseat record holders in all sports. Babe Ruth's short porch home runs still count, as do Michael Phelps' gold medals from before the full-body swimsuit was banned.
And second, there's the Hurts comparison. If the "Brotherly Shove" was the whole reason for Allen's success, then its poster boy wouldn't be nearly 20% less successful in converting goal-line carries into touchdowns.
That said, 21 of Allen's 22 tush push scores have come since Brady took over as the Bills' playcaller midway through the 2023 season. Since that point, just six of Allen's 27 short-yardage touchdowns have come on non-push plays. And that list of six still includes two from early this season where the Bills didn't line up in push formation but a back still came to Allen's aid late in the play.
Pushing through the pain
At the end of the day, it's all circular logic anyway. Push plays are a big reason for Allen's success, and Allen's size and power are a big reason why the Bills are comfortable running so many push plays. Whether the tush push is the chicken or the egg, Allen's still scoring.
And crucially, those plays don't gain their reputation for being automatic without a whole lot of gritting, grinding effort.
"It's torture," offensive tackle Dion Dawkins says. "It's torture under there."
"Those sneaks aren't as glamorous as everyone thinks they are," Allen adds. "You're putting yourself up to getting some nice little hits on you there."
Therein lies the central conflict of Allen's scoring pace. Brady and Allen are adamant that the plan is to build an offense that allows the quarterback to absorb fewer hits.
Yet the offense is unambiguously gearing up for more short-yardage scores than ever. From 2019 to 2024, just 14% of the Bills' drives reached the opponent's 5-yard line. In 2025, that number jumped to 19%. This season, it's hovering around 21%.
So now it's time to play the odds against the protective instincts. As established, Allen scores on 81% of his carries from the 2-yard line and in. Bills running back James Cook III scores at a 50% clip (11-for-22 career).
The Bills are making their choice clear. This year Cook has three carries in these situations and has scored once. Allen has seven carries in these situations and has scored every time.
It all but makes sense to go with what's automatic.