The UFC's maiden voyage into the Netherlands on Sunday features a heavyweight main event between two veterans, who both train out of Jackson-Wink MMA in Albuquerque, New Mexico.
Former Strikeforce and DREAM champion Alistair Overeem will compete in his native Holland for the first time since 2009, as he faces former UFC champion Andrei Arlovski in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Rotterdam. Although they call the same gym home, Overeem and Arlovski do not work together frequently and had no reservations accepting the matchup.
Let's take a closer look at this headliner, which figures to have major implications on the heavyweight division.
Main event
Alistair Overeem (40-14) vs. Andrei Arlovski (25-11)
Heavyweights
Odds: Overeem -240; Arlovski +200
This is a feast-or-famine kind of matchup. Both heavyweights have produced a mixed bag of performances in recent years, with Overeem in particular possessing an equal knack for winning or losing spectacularly.
Technically speaking, Overeem should be the superior fighter. Honestly, that's usually the case when discussing an Overeem fight. His clinch work is second to none in this division and among the best in the entire game, period. He's skilled at every range, has faced every style imaginable between his MMA and kickboxing careers and now, finally, has strong momentum for the first time since a failed drug test in 2012.
Overeem has three losses in the UFC -- and a closer look shows he was fairly dominant during all three before things went south and he suffered knockouts in each. Questionable cardio and a bad habit of ducking his head and using an earmuff defense (with tiny, four-ounce gloves) contributed to those defeats. Against a veteran opponent in Arlovski, who has coaches who are very familiar with Overeem's tendencies, might that lead to disaster?
Arlovski hasn't rode quite the same roller coaster as Overeem in terms of results, but his performances have been similarly hit or miss. He's not particularly hard to hit, but he's very comfortable in the pocket and when he truly turns his right hand loose, no man is safe. We're talking about a right hand that has finished the iron-chinned Roy Nelson and Ben Rothwell. He certainly has the power to sleep Overeem.
If given the option, Overeem would likely have no qualms in taking this fight to the ground. Overeem has played in guards far more dangerous than Arlovski's and his ground-and-pound is underrated. But he doesn't have seamless takedowns. Given his potential cardio shortcomings in recent losses, coupled with Arlovski's relatively good takedown defense and lethal right uppercut, I don't envision Overeem bending forward and reaching for many single-leg takedown attempts on Sunday.
Back in 2011, Arlovski was staring down retirement talk. Many felt his chin was gone after he suffered three knockout losses in a four-fight span. That talk has quieted since, although it's sure to be on the minds of some after he was just knocked out by Stipe Miocic in a matter of 54 seconds back in January. That appeared to be more of a technical mistake than a letdown in durability, however, as Arlovski got caught in a bad spot, moving forward into Miocic's right hand.
All of this boils down to this: It's unlikely we'll see a fight in which Arlovski manages to consistently impose his will on his feet against an opponent who, simply put, brings more tools into the cage. However, Arlovski's chin, while you probably wouldn't want to seek shelter in it during a bomb raid, is not a complete liability and Overeem has a history of sporadic carelessness and/or lackluster endurance. So, considering how potent Arlovski can be with that mule-killing right hand, we're in for a tense fight.
Prediction: Overeem via second-round TKO (but don't rule out an Arlovski/Jackson/Winkeljohn upset).
Rest of the main card
Stefan Struve (26-8) vs. Antonio Silva (19-8-1)
Hard to believe Struve is only 28 after all he has been through physically. Heck, along those same lines, it's kind of hard to believe Silva is only 36. Struve should have more ways to win. Prediction: Struve by TKO.
Gunnar Nelson (14-2) vs. Albert Tumenov (17-2)
World class matchup here and probably the "can't miss" fight of the night. As far as intangibles go, Tumenov might be a better athlete. Nelson arguably has the higher fight IQ.
Prediction: Nelson by submission.