The final UFC event of 2015 features a lightweight title rematch between Rafael dos Anjos and Donald Cerrone, a years-in-the-making heavyweight contender bout featuring Junior dos Santos and Alistair Overeem and the return of lightweight Nate Diaz opposite a surging Michael Johnson. Not a bad way to go out.
Dos Anjos and "Cowboy'" Cerrone first met in August 2013, with the defending champion coming away with a unanimous-decision win. Since then, the two have combined for a 12-1 record. Dos Anjos is 4-1 since their first encounter, while Cerrone has rattled off eight in a row. ESPN is here to break down the main event as well as provide picks for the rest of the main card. Don't agree with my predictions? Let me know (nicely, of course) on Twitter: @bokamotoESPN.
Main event
Rafael dos Anjos (24-7) vs. Donald Cerrone (28-6)
Lightweight championship
Odds: Dos Anjos minus-220; Cerrone plus-180
Speaking in generalities, Cerrone has historically struggled with two things: slow starts and southpaws. In that 2013 matchup against dos Anjos, both came into play.
Cerrone was out-struck in the opening round 28 to 11, which might not sound so bad if it weren't for the fact that all 28 of dos Anjos' strikes felt hard. Dos Anjos dropped Cerrone with a right hook and removed some of the life from his offense with kicks to the body and head. Cerrone looked tentative and had no early answer for dos Anjos, who easily moved into the boxing range he wished the fight to take place at. By the time Cerrone turned things around in the third, it was too late.
The answer to whether or not Cerrone has made real adjustments to his game will be answered on Saturday -- even more so than it has been answered during his eight-fight winning streak. He can't allow dos Anjos to set a boxing range like he did the first time they met. Cerrone is best either when he's making good use of his reach or able to secure a clinch and bust opponents with knees. At a boxing range, he doesn't have the hand speed to compete with dos Anjos, who is a vastly underrated athlete.
The good news for Cerrone is he seems to have put his southpaw woes in the rearview mirror. After losing twice to Ben Henderson, Diaz and dos Anjos (all southpaws), Cerrone has rattled off four consecutive wins against lefties. Just for his confidence alone, that's big going into a title fight. Against dos Anjos specifically, he'll want to avoid the right hook that dropped him in their previous fight. Cerrone tends to drop his lead left hand during exchanges and dos Anjos took advantage of this over and over again with one of his best punches. Dos Anjos is solid at going to the body with hands and kicks, so eventually he forces opponents to drop their guard, but Cerrone has a bit of a tendency to do it anyway and it has hurt him in this matchup before.
You hear it every time Cerrone fights, either in pre-fight analysis or as the fight is playing out: "Cowboy" has good wrestling. He was 1-for-1 on takedown attempts the previous time he fought dos Anjos and it would probably be in his best interest to wrestle more in the rematch. Not that wrestling has to be his clear path to victory, but a few well-timed double legs might suppress dos Anjos' pressure some, which would be a great thing for Cerrone. The more dos Anjos pressures, successfully, the worse this fight is going to go for the challenger. Cerrone can lean on the jab to slow that pressure, as well as use his terrific knee strikes against a shorter opponent. Maybe he can lean on a takedown here and there as well.
A single-faceted game plan probably isn't going to beat dos Anjos. The Kings MMA lightweight was the best-kept secret of the division for a long time but that secret is out now. RDA is strong, quick and well-rounded. He's a top pound-for-pound candidate. Cerrone should be more prepared for his physical gifts having seen them before, but outside of landing a flash knockout, I believe this fight will feature a little bit of everything if Cerrone gets the win.
A very good wrestler himself, dos Anjos figures to score takedowns and he'll be confident from the top. Cerrone has an abundance of finishes off his back, but dos Anjos is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt on the ground and he'll dominate the scorecards if he's landing punches from the top while Cerrone throws up triangle chokes. Just as I believe offensive wrestling could play a major role in an upset for Cerrone, it could play an equally large role in dos Anjos' first title defense.
Prediction: Dos Anjos by decision.
Rest of the main card
Junior dos Santos (17-3) vs. Alistair Overeem (39-14), heavyweights
What effect will a change in camp have on JDS (who held training camp at American Top Team)? A good one, I believe.
Prediction: Dos Santos by KO.
Nate Diaz (17-10) vs. Michael Johnson (16-9), lightweights
Diaz attempts to return to form. Even if he's at his best, Johnson's speed, pressure and wrestling will be a tall order. I have a feeling, though.
Prediction: Diaz by second-round submission.
Myles Jury (15-1) vs. Charles Oliveira (20-5), featherweights
This marks the first go at 145 pounds for Jury. Stylistically, he might be set up to look good here.
Prediction: Jury by TKO.