After two chaotic games in Milwaukee, the World Series shifts to Tropicana Field for Game 3 on Monday night.
Will coming home get the Tampa Bay Rays back on track, or will the Milwaukee Brewers move closer to the franchise's first title? What has most impressed us -- and surprised us -- through the first two games? And what are the keys to the rest of this Fall Classic?
Our MLB experts break down what we've seen so far -- and what it all means.
Who is the two-game MVP of this World Series -- and will he win the award when it's all said and done?
Bradford Doolittle: Aaron Ashby has been atop our Mr. October leaderboard for a couple of weeks now. What's amazing about that is how consistently dominant he has been every step of the way. He hasn't been just the two-game Fall Classic MVP, but the overall MVP of the postseason -- and I don't think it's particularly close. He continued that caliber of play into the World Series, helping lock down tight leads in both Milwaukee victories. He has been as close to perfect as you can get.
David Schoenfield: I'd go with Ashby as well. In fact, his dominant postseason once again raises the idea of MLB instituting an award for MVP of the entire playoffs, like the NHL does with its Conn Smythe Trophy. Aside from Ashby, William Contreras has stood out for his defense -- two guys caught stealing and 2-for-2 in ABS challenges in Game 1, plus his excellent handling of the pitching staff -- and he's 4-for-8 with two RBIs, a walk and no strikeouts at the plate. Only three relief pitchers have won MVP -- Mariano Rivera in 1999, Rollie Fingers in 1974 and Larry Sherry in 1959 -- so Contreras has a strong chance to win if he has a big moment and the Brewers close it out.
What surprised you most over two games in Milwaukee -- and will it continue in Tampa Bay?
Jorge Castillo: The Rays reached the World Series with strong starting pitching, clean baseball and constant pressure on opponents. Besides a good start from Nick Martinez in Game 1, they have lacked in those three areas so far. They've run into outs on the bases. They've made atypical defensive mistakes. Even Drew Rasmussen, the best pitcher of this postseason, struggled in Game 2. The Brewers bested the Rays in all phases. After the second loss, center fielder Jonny DeLuca admitted "the game's speeding up" on them. Returning to Tropicana Field, where the Rays are tied for best home record in the majors (with Milwaukee), should help them slow things down.
Jeff Passan: Jorge is spot-on. There is aggressive, and there is reckless -- and the Rays have leaned too heavily into the latter category. While third base coach Brady Williams' send of Liam Hicks in Game 2 drew criticism after Jackson Chourio threw him out at home, the situation -- two outs and Taylor Walls, who's hitting .133 this postseason, up next -- warranted it. As for Victor Mesa Jr. getting caught stealing at third to end an inning in Game 1, or the strike-'em-out-throw-'em-out double play in that game? Not good.
Beyond that, Jonathan Aranda bungling a grounder at first and Chandler Simpson dropping a routine fly ball (which, comically, was ruled a hit) are so supremely un-Rays-like. There's no reason for it to continue. The Rays spent 162 games and the American League playoffs playing clean. They know that if they don't start to again, their season will end soon enough.
What do you expect from Game 3 starters Robert Gasser and Freddy Peralta?
Castillo: A pitchers' duel for about five innings. Gasser has allowed one run in two postseason starts, logging four innings against the San Diego Padres in the National League Division Series and five scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. The Rays struggled against left-handed starters during the regular season -- their .678 OPS against lefties was tied for 25th in the majors -- but they had success against Max Fried and Parker Messick in the first two rounds.
On Tampa Bay's side, Peralta has been dynamite for the past two months. His 0.89 ERA since Aug. 26 is the best in baseball. The ALCS MVP excels at the Trop, where his four-seam fastball rides better than anywhere else. But Milwaukee presents a different challenge. Five solid innings against the Brewers' relentless attack would be a victory.
Jesse Rogers: This is not a matchup of mediocre, back-end rotation arms. Guess who leads the Brewers in average innings per start this postseason? His last name isn't Misiorowski or Henderson. Gasser has given Milwaukee a solid nine innings over the course of two playoff games. Both were on the road, so he already has big-game experience in hostile environments. He'll surprise first-time Gasser viewers. And though the Brewers know Peralta well, if he lives at the top of the zone with his fastball, it might not matter. Expect a lower-scoring start to Game 3.
What do the Rays need to do to get back in the Series at home?
Schoenfield: Score four runs in the first inning and have your ace on the mound? Oops. That seemed like a plan that would work. Look, the Rays have several issues beyond the simple mathematics of needing to win four of five games -- and the Brewers have lost four of five just twice since April -- but the biggest problem is Kevin Cash's bullpen trust tree is basically down to Bryan Baker and Cam Booser, and he hasn't used Baker for more than one inning all postseason or Booser for more than 17 pitches.
That puts a lot of pressure on Peralta and Game 4 starter Griffin Jax to go more than their usual five innings. Peralta did go six innings in one of his starts in the ALCS, and that feels like the bare minimum of what the Rays will need in Game 3. Still, Cash is going to have to consider extending Baker and Booser beyond their usual comfort levels, as going back to Ian Seymour or Steven Matz feels like a losing proposition. Oh, and some home runs from Junior Caminero and Yandy Diaz would help as well.
Doolittle: The games have been so tight that the margin for error for both teams is slim to none. Both teams have made mistakes, but more have been committed by the Rays. They've run into outs on the bases, made mistakes in the field and bobbled pitches during steal attempts. But more than that, they haven't been making the borderline plays -- not mistakes exactly, but plays that can be made and perhaps should be by a championship aspirant. That's what made Caminero lose his cool late in Game 2, and it has to change, because it's hard enough to beat the Brewers as it is. Tampa Bay must play clean baseball.
What do the Brewers need to do to close it out in Tampa Bay?
Rogers: Keep up their relentless offense. At some point, it doesn't even matter whom the Rays have on the mound. The Brewers can grind it out against anyone right now and then take shots deep when they're available. No one has personified that offensive approach better than William Contreras during this postseason run. His swing changes when the situation does. That's the Brewers way.
Passan: Make sure their relievers don't run out of gas. Brewers pitchers have thrown 89 innings this postseason -- and 50⅔ of them have come from their bullpen. And this is not some opener-heavy operation Milwaukee is running, either. Manager Pat Murphy knows his relief corps is an instrument at his disposal, and he has spent all of October playing the hits.
Ashby has pitched in eight of 10 games and thrown 15⅔ innings, the fourth most of any pitcher -- starters included -- in the postseason. Abner Uribe has one-upped him in appearances with nine. The good news: Those two aren't the Brewers' only reliable relievers. Ashby, Uribe, closer Trevor Megill and left-handers DL Hall and JoJo Romero have allowed a combined four runs in 44 innings for a 0.81 ERA.