Preseason top 25 rankings are a fun exercise, a time-honored tradition that begins the day after the national championship game -- when they're considered way-too-early -- and changes all offseason. It sparks endless, months-long debates and disagreements.
And then, on the first day of the season, everything goes out the window.
That's not quite the same when it comes to tiers -- especially this season, when the range of outcomes for teams varies dramatically depending on how dozens of lawsuits around the country turn out. Placing programs in tiers as opposed to a 1-25 ranking (don't worry, we also did that earlier this month) allows for more wiggle room.
The preseason tiers for the 2026-27 men's college basketball season begin with the national championship favorites: a small, three-team group with an incredibly high ceiling and a proven floor. They end with 10 mid-major clubs we think can be a threat to win a game in the NCAA tournament.
And, yes, there's a tier specifically for teams with players in eligibility limbo.
From the biggest programs to Cinderella hopefuls, ESPN's Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf have split up 75 teams over 11 tiers to help you sort through the preseason chaos, and get ready for November.
Jump to:
Title favorites | Final Four contenders |
Second-weekend threats | Eligibility projections | Can go dancing |
Potential bid thieves | ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ |
Check back next year | Comeback kids |
2 outliers | Cinderellas
Tier I: National championship favorites
Florida Gators
Duke Blue Devils
Illinois Fighting Illini
These three teams will be at the top of most preseason rankings, regardless of how the various five-for-five lawsuits play out in courtrooms.
Florida brings back four starters from last season, three of whom played key roles on the Gators' 2025 national championship team. Thomas Haugh could be the preseason Player of the Year, and Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu are two of the best frontcourt players in the country. Denzel Aberdeen was the first guard off the bench on that 2025 title team, and he's potentially returning (currently eligible after an injunction) after spending a year at Kentucky. If he isn't cleared to play, Todd Golden still has the No. 1 team in the country. The key will be whether Boogie Fland can be one of the best point guards in the country; he has the ability, but there were some inconsistencies last season.
» Read more: Jay Bilas' All-American picks
Jon Scheyer might have the deepest roster of his career this season, as Duke brings back four key players from last season's No. 1 team, while adding the second-best recruiting class in the country as well as the best guard in the transfer portal (Wisconsin's John Blackwell). How Caleb Foster, Cayden Boozer, Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba II adjust to being the main guys will be key, as will Blackwell's emergence as the team's go-to guy without Cooper Flagg or Cameron Boozer. After back-to-back NCAA tournament heartbreaks, Duke has the pieces to win a title.
There's clearly a theme with this first tier: retention. Illinois did as well as anyone in the country in bringing back five of its key players. Brad Underwood then supplemented them with impactful portal and high school additions. David Mirkovic is an All-American when healthy, and Andrej Stojakovic and Tomislav Ivisic are also back and ready for the next step. Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks was one of the more intriguing talents in the portal, and top-25 recruit Quentin Coleman has generated positive buzz. After going to the program's first Final Four appearance in 20 years, could the Illini make it back-to-back? -- Borzello
Tier II: Final Four contenders
Arizona Wildcats
Texas Longhorns
UConn Huskies
Michigan State Spartans
Tennessee Volunteers
Arkansas Razorbacks
Virginia Cavaliers
There certainly have been years when the teams in this tier were only a few steps behind the national title contenders. By the end of this season, a few of them might be real contenders -- their ceilings are very high -- but it's too early to give them that label.
The conversation of whether these teams can reach that level begins in Tucson. Tommy Lloyd has another Arizona squad with Final Four potential, despite losing Jaden Bradley, last year's Big 12 player of the year, and two first-round picks. But returnee Motiejus Krivas was named Big 12 preseason player of the year, and five-star recruit Caleb Holt is a projected top-five pick in the 2027 NBA draft. The Wildcats are waiting for word on RJ Godfrey, a 6-foot-7 forward who averaged 12.0 points at Clemson and is a question mark due to the fifth-year eligibility chaos. If it all comes together, this team can cut down the nets.
You can say the same about UConn, which brought back NCAA tournament hero Braylon Mullins by giving him a significant NIL deal. Fellow returnee Silas Demary Jr. is an All-America candidate. Meanwhile, Dan Hurley had to replace his top three scorers from last season: Tarris Reed Jr., Alex Karaban and Solo Ball (redshirting this season after wrist surgery). This is another Hurley team with NBA talent and another shot at a third title this decade.
Texas meanwhile added Marcus Spears Jr., the No. 1 recruit in the 2027 class who reclassified up a year, as well as top transfers David Punch (TCU) and Isaiah Johnson (Colorado). The Longhorns returned NCAA tournament standout Matas Vokietaitis, too, after losing Dailyn Swain, a first-round pick.
» Read more: Medcalf's best, worst offseason moves
In East Lansing, Jeremy Fears Jr. is a potential Wooden Award winner, and exactly the type of elite point guard that has led Tom Izzo's best teams. Michigan State has to figure out a few things after losing its frontcourt (Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper) and the toughness that duo delivered, however.
Elsewhere, Wake Forest transfer Juke Harris leads a new starting five for Tennessee, and a Virginia team that won 30 games will move forward without Malik Thomas and the depth he added to its rotation. And Darius Acuff Jr., arguably the best point guard in America last season, has left Arkansas. We'll see if five-star recruit Jordan Smith Jr. can replace him for John Calipari. -- Medcalf
Tier III: Second-weekend threats
Alabama Crimson Tide
Houston Cougars
Louisville Cardinals
Miami Hurricanes
Michigan Wolverines
USC Trojans
Missouri Tigers
Kentucky Wildcats
UCLA Bruins
Vanderbilt Commodores
Kansas Jayhawks
It's probably easier to analyze this tier of teams by asking the most important question for each.
Let's start with Kansas: Who is eligible in Lawrence? If former Purdue star Trey Kaufman-Renn, who recently received a court injunction to play a sixth year, and returning starters Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White are truly back, the Jayhawks will have a top-10 roster. On the flip side, this could also be a team that puts more weight on the shoulders of No. 1 recruit Tyran Stokes.
Louisville doesn't need fifth-year standout Seth Trimble the same way some of the other teams here need their in-limbo players. But if he isn't available, could the Cardinals miss his experience and offensive output?
Former all-SEC standout Mark Mitchell, if allowed to play, changes Missouri from a team that makes an NCAA tournament appearance to one that can win multiple games in March. He's currently eligible, but will that remain? His presence is significant for the Tigers.
And how will Malik Reneau change Miami's season? The former all-ACC forward who averaged 18.9 points last season is also hoping for a fifth year. If that changes, Jai Lucas still has an ACC sleeper -- but the Hurricanes are on a different level with Reneau.
In Lexington, Kentucky signed Iowa State transfer Milan Momcilovic, one of the best shooters in NCAA history (49% from 3 last season). In a make-or-break season for Mark Pope, Malachi Moreno needs to have a breakout campaign, which could also seal his NBA dreams. But can he take that next step?
» Read more: Borzello and Biancardi's impact newcomer rankings
Michigan has lost its head coach, three lottery picks and five-star recruit Brandon McCoy (season-ending knee injury) since winning the 2026 national title. So, who steps up in Mike Boynton Jr.'s first season? Elliot Cadeau can't carry the Wolverines to the second weekend alone.
Does Alabama have a supporting cast strong enough for a return to the Sweet 16? Aden Holloway, one of the best guards in the country, is back after last season's felony drug arrest -- but he won't have Labaron Philon Jr. next to him.
Is Alijah Arenas ready to lead USC's talented crew? What more can Tyler Tanner do at Vanderbilt? How will 17-year-old NBA prospect Nikola Kusturica adjust to the college game at UCLA? Can former UNLV and LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. become the winning point guard Houston will need to sustain its five-season streak of winning at least 30 games?
The answers to these questions will determine these teams' postseason finishes. -- Medcalf
Tier IV: Wide range of expectations due to eligibility limbo
Texas Tech Red Raiders
St. John's Red Storm
Gonzaga Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
Iowa State Cyclones
LSU Tigers
Oklahoma Sooners
Ole Miss Rebels
We're a week from the start of the season, but hundreds of players still don't have a definitive answer for their eligibility status. In turn, there are several teams whose ceiling and floor are dramatically different depending on those answers.
Texas Tech and St. John's are at the top of this tier. If all of their in-limbo players are allowed to play, both are legitimate Final Four contenders and conference championship threats. The Red Raiders are awaiting decisions on Darrion Williams, who was an all-Big 12 performer two seasons ago before transferring to NC State for a year; Donovan Atwell, a returning starter and one of the best 3-and-D players in the league; and UCF transfer Jamichael Stillwell. Atwell's trial date isn't scheduled until June, meaning he's the most likely to remain eligible all season. Meanwhile, St. John's still has three players awaiting decisions from the courts after international arrival Quinn Ellis was cleared to play: Auburn transfer Keyshawn Hall, former G-Leaguer Babacar Sane and Indiana transfer Reed Bailey. Rick Pitino could start at least two of those players.
Gonzaga's backcourt makeup depends on Xaivian Lee, Javon Bennett and Chauncey Wiggins all getting another year. BYU (Jaxon Kohler) and Iowa State (Tamin Lipsey) each have one player who could be the difference between a potential second-weekend NCAA tournament team and a group outside the top 25. Oklahoma wants SMU transfer B.J. Edwards and Villanova transfer Duke Brennan able to play; with Porter Moser entering a pivotal season, they're enough to make the Sooners a comfortable NCAA tournament inclusion. Ole Miss is similarly awaiting decisions on FIU transfer Corey Stephenson and Florida transfer Micah Handlogten.
» Read more: Borzello's coaching hot seat guide
Then, there's LSU. The Tigers could have an NCAA tournament team in Will Wade's first season back in Baton Rouge after recent NCAA and court decisions. Former St. John's star RJ Luis Jr. isn't likely to suit up for the Tigers, but international additions Michael Ruzic and Saliou Niang were recently cleared, and UCLA transfers Donovan Dent and Skyy Clark were granted a preliminary injunction. -- Borzello
Tier V: Can win a tournament game
Purdue Boilermakers
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Villanova Wildcats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Saint Louis Billikens
Ohio State Buckeyes
Indiana Hoosiers
All seven of these teams received strong consideration for ESPN's preseason top 25, but ended up just on the outside looking in.
Purdue is a scary team to leave out of the top 25, given Matt Painter's history and the fact he has received no lower than a 4-seed in the NCAA tournament since 2016. But the Boilermakers have had to replace program legends Braden Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. Painter will have to hope for massive steps forward from C.J. Cox, Daniel Jacobsen, Omer Mayer, Gicarri Harris and redshirt Antione West Jr., while also banking on immediate impacts from Princeton transfer Caden Pierce and top-100 recruit Luke Ertel.
North Carolina begins a new era with Michael Malone at the helm -- and will be relying heavily on an incoming transfer class that features likely starters Terrence Brown (Utah), Neo Avdalas (Virginia Tech) and Matt Able (NC State). Another legendary program hoping for huge production from its portal haul is Indiana, where Darian DeVries begins his second season. After missing the NCAA tournament last season, the Hoosiers spent big to bring in Markus Burton (Notre Dame), Aiden Sherrell (Alabama) and Samet Yigitoglu (SMU).
Nebraska will have one of the best duos in the Big Ten: All-American candidate Pryce Sandfort and sophomore Braden Frager. Fred Hoiberg also brought in an underrated portal class headlined by Sam Orme (Belmont) and Trevan Leonhardt (Utah Valley). Villanova went the high-major route in the portal, landing veteran starters Kwame Evans Jr. (Oregon) and Devin Royal (Ohio State) to team up with returning starter Tyler Perkins and talented international big man Luigi Suigo. Ohio State finished last season on a high, and brought back John Mobley Jr. and Amare Bynum to go with five-star freshman Anthony Thompson and Cal transfer Justin Pippen. Meanwhile, Josh Schertz guided Saint Louis to 29 wins and a second-round NCAA tournament appearance and brings back plenty of firepower -- with or without Robbie Avila, who is looking for another year of eligibility. -- Borzello
Tier VI: Dangerous bubble teams
Georgia Bulldogs
Auburn Tigers
Wisconsin Badgers
West Virginia Mountaineers
Oklahoma State Cowboys
TCU Horned Frogs
VCU Rams
Texas A&M Aggies
Minnesota Golden Gophers
There is rich history, at least recently, of NIT champions excelling the following year. Memphis won an NCAA tournament game in 2022, a year after winning the NIT. Xavier reached the Sweet 16 in 2023, following the 2022 NIT title. Auburn, the reigning NIT champion, hopes the trend continues -- especially if Tahaad Pettiford, who was a breakout freshman two years ago during the team's Final Four run, can have an all-SEC season for a program that lost more than 65 points per game in the offseason.
Greg Gard's Wisconsin squad lost its best players -- John Blackwell and Nick Boyd. That said, the Badgers have reached the tournament in five of the past six years and won at least one game in three of those years, so you probably shouldn't bet against top returnee Nolan Winter and his teammates. Chief rival Minnesota has become more interesting with the possibility that Cade Tyson and his 19.6 points per game can return for a fifth season.
West Virginia, which won The Crown championship, resets with Miles Sadler, one of the top prospects in school history. PJ Haggerty, who has finished top five in scoring nationally in back-to-back years, makes Texas A&M a potential upset candidate. You could make the same case for 6-5 guard Blue Cain (13.1 PPG), who is one of three returners to average double figures in scoring for Georgia.
The strangest team on this list is Oklahoma State. North Carolina transfer Luka Bogavac is one of the top transfers for a group that also brings in McDonald's All-American Latrell Allmond. With fifth-year returnee Parsa Fallah and Sam Houston transfer Kashie Natt available, Ross Hodge's team could be dangerous. -- Medcalf
Tier VII: The (potential) comeback kids
Maryland Terrapins
Providence Friars
Baylor Bears
Marquette Golden Eagles
Xavier Musketeers
Creighton Bluejays
By the time Pharrel Payne (17.5 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG) suffered a leg injury in mid-December that cost him the rest of the season, Maryland had already lost four of five games -- and never had an opportunity to find its footing. This season, Payne returns to head up a strong returning nucleus. Buzz Williams also added an impressive transfer pool that includes former Arkansas guard DJ Wagner and five-star recruit Babatunde Oladotun. The same Terrapins who finished 12-21 a season ago could reverse those numbers.
Bryan Hodgson is now leading Providence, his third stop in four years as a head coach. He has won at least 20 games in three previous seasons, and is now at a school that hasn't hit the 20-win mark since 2023-24. He could teach a class on immediate turnarounds.
Scott Drew has the same aspirations for this season's Baylor team. He's excited about the brothers Kayden Mingo, a Penn State transfer, and Dylan Mingo, a five-star prospect. At Marquette, Nigel James Jr. (16.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) is quietly an All-American contender for a group trying to put a 12-win season in the rearview.
Xavier's place in this category might depend on the eligibility plight of Filip Borovicanin (10.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 4.2 APG), while the arrival of former South Florida star Wes Enis should help Creighton in Alan Huss' first season at the helm. -- Medcalf
Tier VIII: Total rebuild = ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Cincinnati Bearcats
NC State Wolfpack
Boston College Eagles
Arizona State Sun Devils
Seton Hall Pirates
Oregon Ducks
In the transfer portal era, successful rebuilds can happen overnight, especially with a new head coach. This tier features five programs in that situation.
Cincinnati doesn't bring back a contributor from last season, or bring in any freshmen. Jerrod Calhoun instead has 11 transfers, plus two five-for-five hopefuls in MJ Collins Jr. and Javontae Campbell. If both suit up, the Bearcats have a great shot to start winning immediately. NC State and new coach Justin Gainey could also push for a postseason spot, if its eight-deep portal class makes the anticipated impact -- and if returnee Paul McNeil Jr. can take the next step to become a consistent go-to guy. Randy Bennett won at least 26 games in each of his final five seasons at Saint Mary's, and will hope to bring that tradition to Arizona State. Only one contributor from last season remains in Tempe, but top-10 transfer Paulius Murauskas followed Bennett from Moraga and will carry the Sun Devils.
Under former UConn assistant Luke Murray, Boston College has its best roster on paper in years, highlighted by 10 transfers and international addition Zak Smrekar. Money Williams (Montana) and Ernest Shelton (Merrimack) headline the backcourt, and Brandon Benjamin (Fairfield) and Luke Hunger (George Washington) are the anchors up front.
Oregon would have been in this tier either way, but Dana Altman's sudden retirement makes the Ducks' season even more unpredictable. Longtime assistant Tony Stubblefield is the interim coach for the season, and he'll have to navigate a roster that includes just two returnees, and potentially nine transfers hoping to make an impact.
The only team in this tier with coaching continuity is Seton Hall, though Shaheen Holloway might bring back just one player from last season. But the Pirates have made a habit of overachieving under Holloway, and there's a reasonable chance the upcoming campaign will be no different. -- Borzello
Tier IX: Backward step looming?
Iowa Hawkeyes
Saint Mary's Gaels
UCF Knights
Santa Clara Broncos
South Florida Bulls
Utah State Aggies
According to KenPom, Bennett Stirtz played 94.1% of available minutes last season for Iowa, carrying the Hawkeyes to the Elite Eight as one of the most important players for any team in the NCAA tournament field. It's impossible to replace that level of production, which is why Ben McCollum's group is here.
Mickey McConnell will be the first new head coach for Saint Mary's in a quarter century. Besides losing Paulius Murauskas, the Gaels also lost fellow standout Mikey Lewis to Texas. West Coast Conference neighbor Santa Clara similarly lost a pair of double-figure scorers after its first NCAA tournament appearance in 30 years.
UCF beat Kansas, Texas Tech and BYU last season on the way to securing a 10-seed on Selection Sunday. Then, Johnny Dawkins lost his top three players; he's hoping Tarleton State star Dior Johnson (24.0 PPG) can fill that void.
Utah State will enter the new Pac-12 with reigning Mountain West player of the year Mason Falslev -- but without MJ Collins Jr. New coach Ben Jacobson, formerly at Northern Iowa, will now have to get through Gonzaga to extend the program's success of past years.
» Read more: Medcalf's conference player of the year picks
No one in this tier, however, has undergone the kind of overhaul that South Florida endured this offseason. Bryan Hodgson led the program to the NCAA tournament for the first time in 14 years, then left for Providence. Every starter who played in the NCAA tournament also left. Chris Mack -- yes, the former Louisville and Xavier head coach -- will have his hands full in trying to maintain momentum for the program. -- Medcalf
Tier X: Two teams we pounded the table for
Borzello: Florida State Seminoles
Luke Loucks and the Seminoles were one of the surprises in the ACC last season, shaking off an 0-5 start in league play to win 10 of their final 13 regular-season games, including against NCAA tournament teams Miami, Clemson and SMU. They also took Duke to the wire twice, losing by four points in the regular season and one point in the ACC tournament. Loucks has implemented a modern, efficient offensive system that emphasizes pace and 3-point shooting. Now, in his sophomore season, Florida State will look to take the next step.
The Noles bring back only one contributor from last season, AJ Swinton (4.5 PPG), but welcome a portal class that includes four power-conference transfers: Sebastian Rancik (Colorado), Anthony Robinson II (Missouri), Shon Abaev (Cincinnati) and Cooper Schwieger (Wake Forest). There's also high-scoring guard Kameron Taylor (UNC Asheville). Loucks also scored top-50 recruit Marcis Ponder, a massive 7-foot center pushing 300 pounds who should provide an immediate physical presence up front.
There's enough talent on this roster to push for an NCAA tournament appearance this season, particularly in an ACC that looks wide open after the top five teams. -- Borzello
Medcalf: Syracuse Orange
Syracuse kept it all in the family when it hired Siena's Gerry McNamara -- yes, the same Gerry McNamara who scored 18 points in the Orange's national title game win over Kansas in 2003. He's also the mastermind behind the team that challenged Duke in a first-round tournament battle that was closer than expected. McNamara has now built a roster that includes bringing over Gavin Doty, who scored 21 points against Duke, and two other former Siena players. For now, at least, McNamara also has Amarri Monroe (15.6 PPG), the former Quinnipiac star with an injunction to play a fifth season. McNamara also has returnees who showed promise in Sadiq White Jr. and Kiyan Anthony, who added about 10 pounds of muscle, per reports; McNamara has talked about putting the latter in better spots to play to his strengths, too.
Syracuse had scorers last season, but Adrian Autry's offensive flow wasn't consistent: The Orange ranked 87th in adjusted offensive efficiency. McNamara is an offensive guru who has boosted output at that end as a player, assistant and head coach; he had the most efficient offense in the Metro Conference (formerly MAAC) last season. If he can continue that consistency, don't be surprised if Syracuse pulls off a few ACC upsets, and flirts with a double-digit seed. -- Medcalf
Tier XI: Potential March Cinderellas
Grand Canyon Lopes
New Mexico Lobos
Wichita State Shockers
High Point Panthers
McNeese Cowboys
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Murray State Racers
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Penn Quakers
A trend has developed in recent years regarding the number of first-round NCAA tournament upsets, specifically how fewer Cinderellas are coming from the mid-major ranks. Last season, only four double-digit seeds won a first-round game, and two of those were Texas A&M (SEC) and Texas (SEC). High Point was the only team seeded 12 or lower in that group. In 2025, only five double-digit seeds won first-round games, with 12-seeds Colorado State and McNeese the lowest.
So, which teams might bring chaos to the bracket in 2027?
If five-for-five lawsuits go in Grand Canyon's favor, Bryce Drew should have the most talented mid-major team in the country. The Lopes are already bringing in three double-digit scoring transfers, three power-conference transfers and also return Makaih Williams (14.0 PPG). Those in eligibility limbo -- first-team all-league pick Jaden Henley, Baylor transfer Dan Skillings Jr. and NC State transfer Tre Holloman -- would be three of the best players in the Mountain West.
Potentially challenging Grand Canyon for the favorite in the Mountain West is New Mexico. Eric Olen is one of the hottest up-and-coming coaches in the country, and he's bringing back one of the best mid-major players from last season in Jake Hall, who entered the transfer portal before pulling out. Returning teammate Uriah Tenette and UC San Diego transfer Hudson Mayes give Olen a tremendous three-headed perimeter group.
There are a few familiar teams that should, once again, be threats in March: High Point, McNeese and Miami (Ohio). The Panthers beat Wisconsin in the NCAA tournament last season, the Cowboys won 28 games before losing to Vanderbilt in the first round and the RedHawks started 31-0 and beat SMU in the First Four.
Wichita State, meanwhile, is the favorite in the American. Paul Mills brings back four of his top six scorers while adding transfers Jordan Frison (Chattanooga) and Jahari Long (George Mason).
Ryan Miller won 20 games in his first season at Murray State and kept his star freshman from last season, French forward Roman Doman; the Racers will face a push from UIC and its five returning starters in the Missouri Valley. Joe Pasternack and UC Santa Barbara once again have a loaded team on paper, particularly the backcourt of Miro Little and CJ Shaw. Will it be enough to topple UC Irvine, which has won three of the past four Big West titles? Takayo Siddle guided UNC Wilmington to the 2025 tournament and a CAA regular-season title in 2026. He returns to dominate the conference once again with the most talented group, headlined by all-conference players Patrick Wessler and CJ Luster II.
Penn won nine of its final 10 games to advance to the NCAA tournament last season. The Quakers bring back four starters, including all-league forward TJ Power (44 points, 14 rebounds in the Ivy title game), and add Notre Dame transfer Sir Mohammed. -- Borzello