Fantasy baseball lineup advice for Thursday: Ride the hot hand with Aaron Nola

ESPN FantasySep 16, 2026, 04:39 PM ET
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Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. All fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball buzz.

Other resources: RP depth chart | 2026 Rankings
ESPN's 2026 Player Rater | Betting notes for Thursday

STARTING PITCHERS FOR THURSDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.8	Drew Rasmussen	R	ATH	95.1%	39%	5.8	6.1	1.7	5.6
13.5	Nolan McLean	R	PHI	92.8%	36%	5.9	6.8	1.8	6.0
11.8	Aaron Nola	R	@NYM	59.8%	34%	5.9	7.1	2.4	6.0
10.8	Framber Valdez	L	@CWS	72.8%	40%	6.0	7.8	2.6	5.7
9.7	Kyle Harrison	L	@PIT	49.3%	34%	5.2	6.7	2.4	5.4
9.6	Seth Lugo	R	@HOU	22.5%	33%	5.6	7.2	2.5	5.0
9.3	Taj Bradley	R	@LAA	72.8%	34%	5.6	7.6	2.9	5.6
9.2	Sonny Gray	R	@TEX	94.7%	40%	5.5	7.3	3.0	5.6
8.4	Justin Wrobleski	L	@CIN	44.3%	32%	5.4	7.2	3.0	5.3
8.2	Jeffrey Springs	L	@TB	8.1%	23%	5.3	6.9	2.4	4.3
8.2	Walbert Urena	R	MIN	36.0%	30%	5.5	7.5	2.7	4.5
7.5	Erick Fedde	R	DET	3.5%	25%	5.4	7.3	2.7	4.4
7.3	Ethan Pecko*	R	KC	0.8%	14%	4.4	5.8	2.0	4.1
6.5	Brady Singer	R	LAD	7.1%	26%	5.3	7.7	3.2	5.0
6.0	Wilber Dotel	R	MIL	0.1%	17%	4.5	6.3	2.4	3.8
4.5	Cody Bradford*	L	BOS	1.2%	11%	4.4	6.5	2.7	3.7
3.6	Michael King	R	@COL	89.3%	36%	5.4	8.4	4.9	5.4
-2.4	Tanner Gordon	R	SD	0.8%	16%	4.6	8.3	5.9	4.1

Pitchers to stream on Thursday

Aaron Nola is rostered in slightly more than half of ESPN leagues, but with only nine games on the docket and the veteran rekindling the past over the second half, it's worth checking on his availability. Over his past 10 outings, Nola has a 2.38 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with 53 strikeouts in as many innings. His walks and homers have been a tad high, but newfound dominance has mitigated the damage. The Philadelphia Phillies have a road date with the New York Mets. The Mets have been more productive over the second half, but for the past month, they have struggled at home in Citi Field.
Get ready for Walbert Urena to be labeled "lucky" in 2027 draft prep but also be cited as a sleeper. Good fortune stems from sporting an ERA over a run lower than its estimators. However, pitching in obscurity in Anaheim means he's been off the radar, and there are signs of an impending breakthrough season, at least in terms of skills. We have a long offseason to discuss next year; the immediate concern is a solid home matchup with the Los Angeles Angels hosting the Minnesota Twins. Urena's control is an issue, but he's facing one of the least patient teams in the league, and his extreme ground ball rate should keep the Twins' power in check.
Seth Lugo is tough to trust as his lack of dominance leaves him vulnerable to a blow-up. On the other hand, when he's in a groove, he can be effective, and on Thursday he gets the nod for the Kansas City Royals when they visit the Houston Astros. The Astros lead the AL West despite sporting the lowest wOBA facing right-handers over the past month.

Hitters to stream on Thursday

For the second straight game, the Boston Red Sox face a left-handed starter, so Willson Contreras, Jahmai Jones and Caleb Durbin are again in the spotlight. Texas Rangers southpaw Cody Bradford will take the hill in Arlington with only 17 strikeouts over 34 1/3 innings this season.
Josue De Paula batted leadoff for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Tuesday; then they faced a lefty on Wednesday, so it isn't clear if Tuesday was a one-time experiment or if it is permanent. Unfortunately, De Paula was 0-for-5 with two strikeouts, so he could flip-flop with Tommy Edman in the seven-hole when the Dodgers face righty Brady Singer and the Cincinnati Reds. Still, it's worth checking the lineup and considering the rookie if he's back at the top of the order.