Fantasy baseball: How to maximize the value of stolen bases

          Baseball's new rules rang in a huge increase in steals. Have defenses finally caught on to how to stop baserunners? Brian Fluharty/Getty Images
          • Todd ZolaJun 18, 2026, 10:28 AM ET
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              Todd Zola is contributing writer for fantasy baseball at ESPN, specializing in game theory and player analysis. Todd is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He won LABR and Tout Wars championships in 2016.
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          Before the 2023 season, Major League Baseball introduced several rules that had an impact on stolen bases. Early on, it was clear that limiting disengagements by pitchers, adding the pitch clock, and installing bigger bases were all a huge boon to the running game. Well, it's now almost three and a half years later -- is this still the case?

          As you can see in the chart below, once those new rules came into play, the number of stolen bases per game immediately increased, peaking in 2024. However, they declined last season and are trending toward another drop this year. The success rate spiked the first year after the new rules but has been slowly reverting to previous levels over the past three seasons.

          The number of stolen base opportunities -- defined as when a team has a runner on first or second base with an open base in front of him -- vary slightly from year to year, but each season's total has remained within 1% of the average over that span. So, that's not really a factor in this discussion. However, there is something to pay attention to in terms of what percentage of those SB opportunities turn into actual attempts.

          As expected, the number of attempted steals per opportunity significantly increased after the introduction of the new rules -- and grew even more the following season. However, they declined in 2025 and are heading that way again so far this year.

          It's not a coincidence that the attempt rate has dropped as teams have learned how to throw runners out in the current environment. The first major change is that catchers have learned that throwing the ball a few feet to the first base side of the bag is more effective than throwing to the base. The new approach shortens the throw and allows the fielder to tag the torso, as opposed to trying to find the runner's hands, which could be moving to avoid the tag.

          Most importantly, a replay challenge can reverse an incorrect safe call. Previously, the ball, glove, and runner's hand (or foot) all met at the base, so the umpire could focus on one place. Nowadays, tags are applied 3-4 feet away from the base, making it harder for the umpire to be in position to see both events clearly.

          There is also another factor in play this season. The automatic balls and strikes (ABS) system impacts the way catchers set up. In the past, catchers needed to prevent wild pitches/passed balls, defend stolen bases, and present (frame) pitches to get some close calls. Each of these duties can be optimized by positioning.

          The setup to optimize framing wasn't ideal for throwing out would-be base stealers. However, this season, when runners have an opportunity to steal, many catchers are not as concerned about framing (since the opportunity for a review exists) and are instead setting up to get the throw off as soon as possible.

          Stolen bases and the fantasy game

          Points-league managers often pay less heed to discussions involving stolen bases since they are secondary to the power-oriented stats in most scoring formats. However, one of the major repercussions of there being more running over the past few seasons is the increased size of stolen base contributors in the overall player pool.

          Points-league managers need to be more cognizant of the increased inventory from which to choose. This is especially true on Monday and Thursday in daily leagues, when hitters are streamed to fill lineup holes. Depending on the matchup, it may be more likely that an available player outscores others because he is in a favorable spot to swipe a base or two. Tracking individual success rates for steals can help in this department.

          Yes, stolen bases may be on the decline, but they are still more prevalent than before the rule changes. It's still beneficial to seek out players whose chief production often comes courtesy of the stolen base. As such, let's look at which teams are better at defending stolen bases and which allow the most stolen bases.

          RED LIGHT (teams allowing the fewest SB/G this season)

          GREEN LIGHT (teams allowing the most SB/G this season)

          Individual streamers to target

          Here are some hitters to consider streaming for stolen bases, especially on days where the schedule is a little bit lighter. Players with double-digit steals are certainly in the mix, regardless of their team's tendencies. However, these are players with roster rates below 50% and fewer than 10 steals so far this season, playing for the teams that currently lead the league in steals per game.