topsecretdailynotesfile

Jun 17, 2026, 09:01 AM ET

TODAY

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. W%: The individual starting pitcher's win probability using ESPN projections. IP: Projected innings pitched. H+BB: Projected hits plus walks allowed. ER: Projected earned runs allowed. K: Projected strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
14.0	Shohei Ohtani	R	TB	99.8%	41%	5.8	6.4	1.8	6.2
13.3	Carlos Rodon	L	CWS	67.1%	38%	5.9	6.7	2.1	6.3
13.3	Nolan McLean	R	@CIN	88.1%	48%	6.1	7.1	2.4	6.3
12.6	Peter Lambert	R	DET	14.6%	40%	5.6	6.8	1.8	5.8
11.9	George Kirby	R	BAL	91.8%	39%	6.0	7.1	2.5	6.0
10.7	Anthony Kay	L	@NYY	5.6%	26%	5.5	6.7	2.1	5.4
9.3	Kyle Bradish	R	@SEA	60.9%	26%	5.3	7.0	2.5	5.4
9.2	Sandy Alcantara	R	@PHI	77.3%	34%	5.8	7.5	2.9	5.1
9.2	Casey Mize	R	@HOU	40.7%	20%	5.1	6.2	2.2	4.9
9.0	JR Ritchie	R	SF	5.6%	38%	5.3	6.5	2.5	4.4
8.7	Gavin Williams	R	@MIL	95.8%	29%	5.2	7.2	2.7	5.6
8.4	Shane McClanahan	L	@LAD	58.4%	15%	4.6	5.7	1.9	4.5
8.3	Brandon Sproat	R	CLE	2.0%	27%	5.1	6.7	2.5	4.6
8.1	Griffin Canning	R	@STL	0.7%	31%	5.4	7.5	2.6	4.8
8.0	Andrew Painter	R	MIA	7.8%	33%	5.6	7.6	3.1	5.0
7.9	Eduardo Rodriguez	L	LAA	49.4%	32%	5.6	8.0	3.2	5.4
7.5	Kyle Leahy	R	SD	3.6%	25%	5.1	7.0	2.6	4.4
7.3	Nick Lodolo	L	NYM	49.1%	18%	5.4	7.8	3.2	5.6
7.2	Javier Assad	R	COL	11.4%	27%	4.9	6.7	2.4	4.0
7.0	Sean Sullivan	L	@CHC	0.0%	20%	4.5	5.8	2.2	3.8
6.3	Zack Littell	R	KC	5.7%	15%	4.4	5.6	2.4	3.6
6.0	Sam Aldegheri	L	@ARI	0.9%	29%	5.2	7.9	2.9	3.9
5.8	Braxton Ashcraft	R	@ATH	86.1%	35%	5.3	7.9	3.9	5.5
5.6	Luinder Avila	R	@WSH	0.3%	14%	4.2	5.9	2.2	3.6
5.6	Max Scherzer	R	@BOS	2.6%	18%	4.5	6.3	2.9	4.3
4.9	Jake Bennett	L	TOR	0.4%	8%	3.7	5.2	2.1	3.3
2.0	Aaron Civale	R	PIT	4.1%	16%	4.6	7.5	4.1	4.2
	TBD		@ATL	0.0%	0%	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0

TOMORROW

STARTING PITCHER RANKINGS

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	H+BB	ER	K
13.5	Bryan Woo	R	BAL	99.0%	39%	5.9	6.2	2.0	5.9
13.4	Joe Ryan	R	@TEX	97.7%	44%	6.3	7.1	2.8	7.0
11.4	Sean Manaea	L	@PHI	2.5%	28%	5.2	5.7	2.1	5.8
11.3	Ryan Weathers	L	CWS	33.0%	37%	5.9	7.4	2.7	6.2
10.8	Shane Baz	R	@SEA	28.8%	29%	5.8	7.3	2.5	5.7
9.8	Aaron Nola	R	NYM	38.3%	31%	5.8	7.4	3.0	5.9
9.7	Sean Burke	R	@NYY	9.5%	28%	5.5	7.1	2.5	5.5
9.4	Parker Messick	L	@MIL	89.0%	30%	5.4	7.0	2.6	5.4
9.1	Jack Leiter	R	MIN	16.8%	31%	5.9	8.0	3.1	5.8
8.9	Noah Cameron	L	STL	21.8%	36%	5.7	7.3	2.9	4.8
8.7	Trey Yesavage	R	@BOS	59.2%	30%	5.2	7.0	2.7	5.5
8.4	Shane Drohan	L	CLE	3.3%	20%	4.5	5.9	2.1	5.0
8.2	Landen Roupp	R	@ATL	26.6%	32%	5.6	7.8	3.0	5.2
7.4	Martin Perez	L	SF	10.9%	21%	4.7	6.1	2.3	4.1
7.2	Sonny Gray	R	TOR	84.9%	28%	5.4	7.5	3.4	5.4
5.2	Matthew Liberatore	L	@KC	4.4%	18%	4.7	7.0	3.0	4.3
4.9	Gage Jump	L	LAA	15.4%	21%	4.8	7.3	3.5	4.9
4.0	Jose Soriano	R	@ATH	88.7%	26%	5.1	8.6	3.9	5.2

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@SF	-126	55.3	+0.71	-1.0	+106	+0.71	7.0	O -108	7.56	-0.01
Logan Webb	NYY	+104	44.7	-10.55	+1.0	-138	-10.55	7.0	U -112	7.56	-8.99

PITCHER	OPP.	MONEY LINE	PROJ. WIN%	VALUE %	RUN LINE	OV	VALUE %	GAME TOTAL	O/U	xRUNS	VALUE %
Max Fried	@ SF	-126	55.2	0.66	-1.0	+106	0.66	7.0	O -105	7.57	1.64
Logan Webb	vs. NYY	+104	44.8	-10.48	+1.0	-138	-10.48		U -115		-10.37