Four weeks into the college football season, every big Saturday seems to rewrite the Heisman race and the national title picture. Some moves are earned, while others are the market falling in love with a final score.
I dug into the production, the opponents and the schedules ahead to see which reactions hold up.
Odds by DraftKings
and subject to change.
Heisman market watch
Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida +1050
Last week: 55-1
Baugh's move is justified after he has produced 600 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns so far this season, including 142 yards and three scores in Florida's statement win over Ole Miss. The price is another question. His early FBS opponents average 85th in rushing yards allowed, while his next five opponents (Missouri, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia and Oklahoma) all rank inside the top 38 in rush defensive grades.
He needs to produce against substantially better fronts. Georgia and Texas will determine whether this is a real Heisman campaign or September inflation. Baugh is actually ahead of Derrick Henry's 2015 Heisman pace, but Henry ultimately won the award by dominating Alabama's toughest SEC opponents. Florida doesn't have the same schedule impact.
Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State +260
Last week: +1050
Smith became the favorite after turning Illinois into his Heisman announcement: 12 catches, 217 yards and four touchdowns, and he now leads the country in receiving yards. The move is completely justified. The current price is not automatically attractive, though, especially after grabbing Smith at a better number two weeks ago.
A receiver at +260 this early in the season must maintain historically dominant production and must remain undeniable. He likely will. I have confidence that Smith will indeed be in New York. Right now, he's the best candidate in the market ... but not the best price.
Kamario Taylor, QB, Mississippi State +500
Last week: +1150
Taylor's price shortened after Mississippi State beat No. 19 Missouri behind his 360 passing yards and three touchdowns. He now has 1,192 yards, 15 scores and just two interceptions for a 4-0 team. The rise is justified, especially because Missouri owns the nation's top PFF pass-rush grade. Taylor felt that pressure -- as witnessed with his four sacks -- and found a way to produce a win.
Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas will test whether the production survives both the consistent disruption and better coverage. At +500, the market is already pricing in that answer. He's legitimate, but I'm leaving him alone.
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss +1150
Last week: +290
Chambliss fell because Ole Miss lost 52-28 at Florida. But his individual performance was nowhere near disastrous: 342 total yards and three touchdowns. His underlying profile remains strong, including his overall efficiency when both clean and under pressure, and he is still one of the best deep throwers.
If the Rebels keep losing because of the defense, Chambliss would need a Jayden Daniels-type season in which overwhelming production makes the record secondary, plus signature performances against the remaining ranked opponents. The drop is justified, as +1150 is far more reasonable than +290 last week, so for someone starting fresh, it is playable. Basically, he's still live.
National championship watch: What do we do with Florida?
The biggest move this week is the Gators from 40-1 to 20-1. Florida's 52-28 win looked dominant, but it was not the same kind of early championship declaration Indiana made last season by demolishing Illinois 63-10.
Florida ran for 302 yards, controlled possession and scored six rushing touchdowns, repeatable traits supported by an elite run game. My hesitation: The Gators didn't make Ole Miss nonfunctional. The Rebels still gained 426 yards, averaged 8.8 yards per pass and scored four touchdowns. Florida also benefited from a 2-0 turnover edge.
I'll admit, the Gators are interesting. One result isn't declarative enough for me to buy the championship ticket yet. Georgia versus Florida next month excites me.
Futures prediction: Florida UNDER 9.5 wins (-120)
While everyone looks to the Gators as a title contender, I'll pivot. Florida is 4-0. The over still requires a 6-2 finish. The remaining schedule looks more difficult by name than it does matchup by matchup.
Florida needs only one additional loss beyond Texas and Georgia. However, there is no obvious third loss, so we're left relying on the cumulative possibility of Missouri, Kentucky, Oklahoma or Florida State producing one. Florida could also beat Texas or Georgia and completely change the equation.
Still, asking a team we only recently began taking seriously to play nearly flawless football for two months is not concrete. The Ole Miss win showed that Florida has contender-level traits. I need week-to-week consistency, especially after the defense also allowed 39 points at Auburn before dominating an Ole Miss offense with protection and defensive problems of its own.
Betting Florida finishes 9-3 or worse is much easier to defend than betting Florida to control this schedule and then win multiple postseason games for the national title.