Following its emotional win at USC on Saturday night, Oregon ascended to the No. 12 spot in our latest College Football Playoff projection. At No. 12, the Ducks became the very definition of a bubble team -- right on the cusp of earning a CFP bid but not quite secure in the playoff pecking order.
There are worse places to be heading into October.
(Lookin' at you, Texas A&M.)
As the heart of conference play begins, so does true separation, but September gave the CFP selection committee clues it will refer to throughout the season and bubble teams to keep an eye on moving forward.
(Hello, Iowa.)
Below, you'll find one CFP contender in the spotlight for each Power 4 league and another identified as an enigma -- one that is quietly brewing with potential but still impossible to figure out. With a month of results now, we've added more categories to help sort it out, differentiating teams on the right side of the bubble from those precariously hanging on to the wrong side of it.
Remember, any Power 4 team that still has a chance to win its conference can reach the playoff, as each of those four league champions is guaranteed a spot this year (lookin' at you, ACC).
The dreaded category of "out" makes its 2026 season debut as well. For these schools, it's better luck next year.
(Sorry, Oklahoma.)
This will be your weekly snapshot of where each Power 4 conference stands, along with the top Group of 6 contenders and Notre Dame. Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds -- or busts -- its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 6
Bracket
ACC
Spotlight: Miami. The Canes are still the runaway favorite to win their first ACC title (72.5%), as nobody else in the league has more than a 7.7% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. Miami is No. 3 in the country in total efficiency behind Georgia and Notre Dame, and the Canes have the third-best chance to reach the CFP (85.1%) behind Texas (89.6%) and Notre Dame (85.2%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Are the Canes heading into a trap game Saturday at Clemson? The Tigers have reeled off three straight wins since their season-opening loss to LSU, including a 24-10 cross-country victory at Cal on Friday. Miami, though, is the more talented team, and ESPN's FPI gives the Canes an 87.4% chance to win this weekend. The only game Miami isn't favored to win is Nov. 7 at Notre Dame. A loss to the Irish would impact the seeding, but the reality is they're both on a path to reach the CFP this year.
The enigma: Wake Forest. Nobody has scored more points on Miami this season, as the Deacs pushed the Canes on Sept. 18 in a 33-20 home loss. The Demon Deacons have played the toughest schedule in the ACC (No. 13 in the FBS), according to ESPN Analytics, and are one of the few teams in the country that have two road wins against Power 4 opponents. Wake Forest upset Louisville on Saturday to go with a double-overtime win at Purdue on Sept. 12. The question is whether the Deacs can keep it up against the likes of Virginia, SMU and Duke -- all games ESPN's FPI projects Wake Forest to lose. Because of that, Wake Forest remains a longshot to reach the ACC championship game. But few gave the Deacs a chance to beat Louisville, too.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
Right side of the bubble: None
Wrong side of the bubble: Duke, Pitt, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Out: Boston College, Cal, Syracuse, Florida State, Georgia Tech, NC State, Stanford
Big 12
Spotlight: Utah. The Utes earned a respectable Big 12 road win at Iowa State and have looked better than Texas Tech. Tennessee's loss also opens the door for Utah to creep closer to contention. Though the Utes don't have a win against a ranked opponent like Texas Tech does (vs. Houston), they have been significantly better statistically. Utah is No. 8 in total efficiency and No. 13 in ESPN's strength of record metric. Quarterback Devon Dampier ranks No. 27 in QBR and has been efficient and accurate. It wouldn't be surprising to see the committee have BYU and Utah as its top Big 12 teams based on the eye test so far. Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond threw three interceptions in an ugly game against 1-3 Sam Houston. The committee also considers wins against FCS opponents, and the Red Raiders have one against Abilene Christian.
The enigma: Oklahoma State. Maybe Oregon's loss to the Cowboys wasn't so bad after all. Oklahoma State beat West Virginia on Saturday in Morgantown -- a Mountaineers team that had upended one of the ACC's best teams, Virginia. Oklahoma State now has the fifth-best chance in the league to reach the Big 12 title game (8.6%). The Cowboys have won two games the computers said they wouldn't -- against Oregon and West Virginia. The question is whether Oklahoma State can continue to defy expectations. ESPN's FPI gives the Cowboys less than a 50% chance in three of its remaining games (Houston, K-State and Texas Tech). If they can win at least two of those, the narrative in the Big 12 will change quickly.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: BYU
Right side of the bubble: None
Wrong side of the bubble: Utah, Texas Tech, Cincinnati
Out: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, TCU
Big Ten
Spotlight: Oregon. With Saturday's victory at USC, the Ducks have the third-best chance behind Ohio State and Indiana to reach the Big Ten title game and win it, according to ESPN Analytics. It was the best Oregon has played this season, and it came on the road against a ranked opponent, and with the backup quarterback following a scary injury to Dante Moore. The resilient performance lifts the Ducks back into the playoff conversation. They're right on the bubble, though, because in this week's top-12 prediction, Oregon was slotted at No. 12 where it would get bumped out of the bracket on Selection Day to make room for Boise State. The Broncos are projected to earn a playoff bid as the committee's highest-ranked team from a Group of 6 conference (see below). Oregon still has to travel to Ohio State on Nov. 7, where ESPN's FPI gives the Buckeyes a 77.8% chance to win.
The enigma: Iowa. Nobody in the Big Ten has a better strength of record (No. 5) than the Hawkeyes. Saturday's thrilling 20-19 win at Michigan kept Iowa undefeated heading into the biggest game of the season, against Ohio State. Through September, Iowa has won the unofficial state title, beating Iowa State and Northern Iowa, but the win in Ann Arbor put the Hawkeyes in an interesting position of possibilities. Iowa and Nebraska are undefeated and in similar sleeper spots -- they also play each other in the final game of the regular season. Saturday's game against the Buckeyes will determine how seriously to take Iowa, as even a close loss would earn them credit in the committee meeting room. To capitalize on it, though, they'd have to avoid November losses to Northwestern and Nebraska, which is what ESPN's FPI is forecasting.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Ohio State, Indiana
Right side of the bubble: None
Wrong side of the bubble: Oregon, Iowa, Nebraska, UCLA
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Purdue, Rutgers
SEC
Spotlight: Florida. Saturday's win against Ole Miss skyrocketed the Gators into playoff contention, as they finished September with the combination of eye test and résumé the committee looks for. Florida is now No. 2 in the country in ESPN's strength of record metric, trailing only Texas. The Gators are also No. 2 in game control behind Georgia. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Florida has the 10th-best chance in the country to reach the CFP (48.9%). The Gators still have to face the two toughest teams in the league -- at Texas on Oct. 17 followed by Georgia on Halloween. ESPN's FPI gives the Gators less than a 50% chance to win each of those games. Even if Florida finishes 10-2, though, it can still reach the CFP, depending on how its résumé stacks up against other two-loss teams.
The enigma: Mississippi State. Surprise. The undefeated Bulldogs rank No. 4 in ESPN's strength of record metric after wins against Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri. The Bulldogs followed back-to-back road wins with Saturday's upset of Mizzou, increasing their chances of reaching the SEC title game to 5.6% -- ahead of both Tennessee and Ole Miss. The Bulldogs' chance of reaching the CFP is now seventh in the SEC at 24.5%, just behind Tennessee (22.4%). It has been an impressive start, but Mississippi State is about to begin its season-defining stretch, with games against Alabama, LSU, Oklahoma and Texas. Road games to LSU and Texas in October will be daunting, and the Bulldogs finish the season at rival Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. If Mississippi State keeps it up, though, that regular-season in-state rivalry will mean far more than bragging rights.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas, Georgia, Alabama, Florida, Ole Miss, LSU
Right side of the bubble: Ole Miss, LSU
Wrong side of the bubble: Mississippi State
Out: Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas A&M
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. With each win, Notre Dame slowly creeps up in the metrics. The Irish are ranked No. 12 in ESPN's strength of record metric, in part because their schedule to this point is ranked No. 99 in the country. Nobody in the country has a better chance to win out (39%), and the Irish have the second-best chance to reach the CFP (85.2%) behind Texas (89.6%). The Irish have now won 14 straight games by double digits and survived September unscathed for the first time under coach Marcus Freeman. It's not a question of whether Notre Dame will reach the CFP, it's can the Irish win it all? According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Notre Dame has the third-best chance (14.2%) behind Georgia and Texas.
Group of 6
Spotlight: Boise State. The Broncos knocked off Western Michigan, the darling of college football after its controversial loss at Michigan, in convincing fashion Saturday. They remain in the lead to represent the Group of 6 conferences in the playoff with a 33.3% chance -- slightly ahead of James Madison (28.5%). It helped Boise State that Oregon beat USC because the committee will value a close road loss to the Ducks, especially if Oregon is a CFP team. Boise State's strength of schedule is No. 31 in the country, which is No. 11 among Group of 6 teams. The rest of Boise State's schedule, though, is No. 88, which means the Broncos likely need to win out to secure this spot.
Enigma: James Madison. The undefeated Dukes have won back-to-back road games, but they don't have any ranked opponents on their schedule. And the rest of it is ranked No. 118 in the country, which is a dagger in the committee meeting room. JMU has the second-best chance among Group of 6 teams to win out behind Boise State -- and it will likely need to.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Boise State
Bracket
Based on the rankings in this week's projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Texas (SEC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia
No. 4 Miami (ACC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 18 and 19
No. 12 Boise State (highest Group of 6) at No. 5 Notre Dame
No. 11 BYU (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Indiana
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 8 Florida
Quarterfinal games
Vrbo Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 30, Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic and Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential on Jan. 1.
No. 12 Boise State/No. 5 Notre Dame winner vs. No. 4 Miami
No. 11 BYU/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 LSU/No. 7 Indiana winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Ole Miss/No. 8 Florida winner vs. No. 1 Texas