SweetSpot

          Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel and managerial decisions

          There's sort of a mantra in sabermetric circles that goes something like this:

          DON'T LET YOUR STARTER GO THROUGH THE ORDER A FOURTH TIME!

          You often see Twitter going nuts over this during the postseason, when more days off mean more rested relief pitchers, and thus need for the starting pitcher to go deeper into the game.

          The reason for the mantra are these numbers:

          Starters in 2014, first time through the order: .246/.304/.377

          Starters in 2014, second time through the order: .256/.313/.395

          Starters in 2014, third time through the order: .268/.327/.421

          When Jon Lester gave up three runs in the eighth inning for the A's against the Royals in last year's wild-card game? It was Kansas City's fourth time through the order when they got to him for two hits and a walk to start a three-run rally that cut the score from 7-3 to 7-6.

          Anyway, I was thinking of this general rule during Monday night's action. Clayton Kershaw, looking for his 100th career win, took a 3-1 lead into the eighth inning for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Milwaukee Brewers. Dallas Keuchel, looking to improve to 4-0 and give the Houston Astros their 11th consecutive win, took a 1-0 lead into his eighth inning against the Texas Rangers. Kershaw had faced 24 batters; Keuchel had also faced 24 batters.

          One more stat:

          Starters in 2014, fourth time through the order: .256/.309/.391

          So starters actually do better the fourth time through the order. But that makes sense if you think about it: Only the best pitchers or pitchers having a good game are allowed to go much beyond 27 batters. Managers know to go to the pens pretty quickly these days. Of course, Kershaw is no ordinary pitcher and Keuchel entered the eighth inning having allowed three runs in 44 innings on the season.

          Kershaw got his first out, but then Hector Gomez hit the first home run of his major league career, off a first-pitch fastball. Adam Lind then hit a pinch-hit double to deep right field, bringing up leadoff hitter Carlos Gomez. Kershaw was only at 91 pitches, but the Dodgers went to the bullpen. (Note: Don Mattingly had been ejected in the third inning, but presumably he was still dictating the decision to remove Kershaw.)

          The Dodgers bullpen has been hot, but it was certainly a little surprising that Mattingly didn't let Kershaw work out of the jam, even if it was the fourth time through the order. This is really the heart of managing: When do you let the numbers dictate what you do, and when do you go with your gut?

          Carlos Gomez doubled off Chris Hatcher, and then Ryan Braun would reach on an infield single to score Gomez, and the Brewers gave new manager Craig Counsell a 4-3 victory in his debut.

          Kershaw wasn't too happy after the game:

          That doesn't mean Kershaw was mad at Mattingly for being removed. Could be he was mad at the fastball Hector Gomez hit out, or his inability to put away Lind, who fouled off three pitches with two strikes before doubling. Could mean he's just ticked off that the Dodgers lost the game and he has just one win in six starts with an inflated -- for him -- ERA of 3.72. (As dominant as Kershaw was in 2014, it's also a reminder that it took some luck and run support to go 21-3 in 27 starts.)

          Is there a reason for the ERA? While his strikeout and walk rates are fine, Kershaw has allowed five home runs, already more than half of his 2014 total of nine, and he's allowed a .252 average compared to .196 last year. That's probably just some small-sample-size bad luck -- his BABIP is .352 versus .281 last year. On the other hand, four of his home runs allowed have come on fastballs and three of the five on first pitches (two fastballs, one slider), so maybe hitters are trying to jump on that fastball earlier in the count. And three of the home runs were hit by guys named Buster Posey, Troy Tulowitzki and Paul Goldschmidt.

          I don't think there's reason to be concerned about Kershaw, but maybe it's telling that the Dodgers preferred Hatcher to get out of a jam when Kershaw was at only 91 pitches.

          As for Keuchel, he got the first out of the eighth with a strikeout but then walked Delino DeShields Jr., who advanced on a wild pitch. No. 9 hitter Jake Smolinski then hit an RBI single to tie the game. That brought up the top of the order, but manager A.J. Hinch left in his ace. Keuchel got Shin-Soo Choo and walked Elvis Andrus before inducing Prince Fielder to pop out on his 110th pitch of the game. But the lead was lost, and the Rangers would push across the winning run in the ninth against Chad Qualls.

          Again, Hinch didn't make the right move or the wrong. The walk to DeShields, hitting .176, was a big mistake by Keuchel, but Smolinski's hit was a soft liner fisted to shallow center field.

          I don't even know if either manager was influenced by the fourth time through the order thing. I just found it interesting that one manager stuck with his ace and the other didn't. The players decide the games. but we still love discussing those managerial moves.