Astros' win, Lowrie's HR, Street's collapse all improbable

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The Houston Astros haven’t had a lot of big wins the past few years, but Sunday’s might qualify as one of their biggest and also one of their most improbable.

The Astros had a 0.3 percent chance of winning with two out and no one on base, down by three runs in the ninth inning, based on historical win probability data. But sometimes 333-to-1 shots come through, and this one did, thanks to the home runs by Preston Tucker and Lowrie and a little bit of luck (that the Los Angeles Angels couldn’t make the play to get the third out).

If the Astros make the postseason, Lowrie’s go-ahead, ninth-inning home run against Huston Street with two outs may be remembered alongside the likes of the big home runs in postseasons’ past by Jeff Kent and Chris Burke.

There were so many things about that home run that were amazing.

Lowrie entered the at-bat in an 0-for-17 slump. He was 0-for-5 in his career against Street, and had made ninth-inning outs against him with the team down 3-2 in each of the two previous games in the series (this game, like the two before it, was on the verge of ending 3-2). He entered hitting .203 against right-handed pitching this season, but was deemed a better option than Evan Gattis for whom he was pinch-hitting.

Lowrie’s fly ball down the right-field line went 339 feet. If it was hit a few inches shorter, Angels outfielder Kole Calhoun would have caught it (which would have made for a heck of an ending). Calhoun already had one home run robbery this season but came up just short of his second.

It’s the first time Lowrie has hit a go-ahead home run in the ninth inning that came with his team trailing.

Lowrie’s home runs of late have been important ones. Four of his past five came have come in the seventh inning or later. One tied a game in the eighth inning, another cut a lead to a run in the ninth inning, and another was a go-ahead grand slam in the seventh inning.

Street’s five runs allowed were a career high. He hadn’t allowed a home run with multiple men on base to lose a game since the 2010 season, when he allowed a three-run walk-off home run to Pedro Alvarez.