As the 2015 college football season approaches, ESPN Stats & Information will preview each Power 5 conference from the perspective of preseason FPI. As a refresher, preseason FPI is a rating based on a number of factors that have been found to be predictive for the coming season (previous years’ efficiencies, returning starters, recruiting rankings and coaching tenure). An explanation of preseason FPI can be found here and here, and full season projections are available at espn.com/fpi.
Today we will analyze the upcoming season in the SEC.
FPI’s favorite
At first glance, FPI’s SEC projections might seem out of whack. After all, Alabama is the highest-ranked SEC team in FPI but has the fourth-best chance to win the conference. Auburn, the media members’ pick to win the SEC, ranks eighth in FPI’s SEC projections.
It is important to note that conference projections account for more than team strength. A team’s schedule and path to the conference title game play a major role in projecting its chance to win the conference.
For this reason, FPI favors Georgia to win the SEC because it has a favorable path to the SEC championship game through the SEC East. The Bulldogs have a 51-percent chance to win their division, more than twice the rate of any other team from the crowded SEC West.
Alabama, in comparison, has to emerge from a crowded SEC West after playing what is projected to be the toughest schedule in the nation. In addition to six SEC West opponents, the Crimson Tide face the top two teams from the SEC East (Tennessee and Georgia). LSU’s schedule, which features South Carolina and Florida from the East, is a major reason it has the best chance to win the SEC West.
Auburn was the pick of media members presumably for reasons that FPI admittedly cannot fully capture. FPI accounts for the fact Auburn has a new quarterback, but it has no information on whether the new QB will be better than his predecessor. Similarly, FPI has no way of knowing that the Tigers hired the “best defensive mind in all of football” to be their defensive coordinator.
Instead, FPI sees that Auburn returns 12 starters (four on offense) to a team that was strong on offense but struggled defensively. It expects Auburn’s defense to improve, but given the turnover on offense and difficult path to the conference championship game through the SEC West, it favors other teams over Auburn.
Top games of the year
Matchup quality ranks games (on a 0-to-100 scale) based on how good each team is and how close the game is expected to be. The games ranked highest in matchup quality will be competitive games between highly ranked teams in FPI.
• Top nonconference game: Oklahoma at Tennessee (Sept. 12) – 90.2 matchup quality
This game is expected to be the second-best nonconference matchup of the season, behind Michigan State’s rematch with Oregon. Tennessee (13th) and Oklahoma (15th) rank in the top 15 in preseason FPI and enter the game looking to prove they can contend for the College Football Playoff. With the game in Knoxville, FPI projects that Tennessee has a 59 percent chance to win.
• Top conference matchup: LSU at Alabama (Nov. 7) – 93.6 Matchup Quality
There always seems to be something on the line when LSU and Alabama face off. FPI expects another important matchup in early November for the SEC West favorites. Alabama is favored in the game (59 percent) at home, but LSU has won three of its last five in Tuscaloosa.
• Closest projected game of the year: Georgia at Tennessee (Oct. 10) – Tennessee 51.0 percent chance to win
Not only is this expected to be the closest games of SEC play, but it also will likely be one of the most important. Georgia and Tennessee are FPI’s favorites to win the SEC East, so the game could have conference championship implications.
Top units of 2015
Preseason FPI utilizes the four factors listed above to predict the offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency of each FBS team for the 2015 season. When those three phases of the game are combined, the result is each team’s overall FPI rating. Below you will find the top projected units in the SEC. The numbers associated with each unit are the points per game that unit is expected to contribute to its team’s net scoring margin next season.
Offense: Texas A&M (plus-14.3, second in FBS) -– Kevin Sumlin’s teams have finished in the top 10 in ESPN’s offensive efficiency rankings in five of his seven seasons as a head coach (led the country in 2009 and 2012). Preseason FPI accounts for the last four years, and during that time, the Aggies rank third in the nation in points per drive. The Aggies have eight returning starters on offense, including a gaggle of highly recruited skill position players, which should open things up for QB Kyle Allen.
Defense: Ole Miss (plus-14.1, first in FBS) –- The Rebels allowed an SEC-low 1.1 points per drive last season, and despite losing All-Americans Senquez Golson and Cody Prewitt, they are not expected to take a step back in 2015. Robert Nkemdiche, the No. 1 overall recruit in the 2013 ESPN 300, should anchor what should be one of the top defensive lines in the country, and his brother Denzel returns from injury to round out an already strong group of linebackers.
Special teams: Tennessee (plus-1.8, first in FBS) –- In developing FPI’s projections it became apparent that recruiting and the number of returning starters influence special teams efficiency. This makes sense because the top athletes, particularly experienced ones, excel in special teams situations. The Vols have signed a top-five recruiting class in each of the last two seasons and return an SEC-high 18 starters, so FPI expects them to be the top unit in the country.
Also in this series:
Previewing the ACC
Previewing the Big 12
Previewing the Big Ten
Previewing the Pac-12
Note: Projections will be updated throughout the summer as we learn more about starters and improve FPI to better handle games against FCS opponents.