PHILADELPHIA -- There are reasons to be skeptical about Howie Roseman steering the Philadelphia Eagles through free agency and the draft.

But there are also reasons to be optimistic. Roseman is 40 years old now. He has worked in the NFL for almost 16 years. If he was too young and too inexperienced when he was first named general manager of the Eagles in 2010, he is neither of those things in 2016.

When the Eagles had a productive player personnel situation, head coach Andy Reid was the most important person in the equation. The personnel people who worked with him -- starting with Tom Modrak and continuing with Tom Heckert -- served to provide information and insight to help Reid make decisions. Good insight and good information led, for the most part, to good decisions.

Roseman replaced Heckert in 2010. By that point, Reid had been head coach for 11 years. He had taken the team to five conference championship games. There was a general sense that Reid desperately wanted to complete his mission and deliver a Super Bowl championship -- desperate enough to grasp at some pretty unlikely straws.

There was the decision to promote offensive line coach Juan Castillo to defensive coordinator, while simultaneously handcuffing Castillo to defensive line coach Jim Washburn’s "Wide 9" alignment. The combination was a disaster.

There was the decision to draft 27-year-old Canadian Danny Watkins in the first round in 2011. The Eagles needed a guard and they decided that Watkins would fill that hole. Watkins wound up starting 18 games and being released before his third season.

There was the decision to go on a free-agent spending spree in 2011, as the NFL was resolving its lockout and a bunch of players were suddenly on the market. The Eagles crowed when they landed cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, defensive lineman Cullen Jenkins, defensive end Jason Babin and quarterback Vince Young, among others.

It was Young who referred to the Eagles as "the Dream Team," giving the disappointment that followed an easily mocked and sarcastically applied nickname.

In the wake of all that, Roseman made it clear that he had learned a lot of valuable lessons.

"You don't want to force things," Roseman said in 2012. "We're trying to do it the right way. We want to make sure we're drafting people based on our grades. We want to make sure we're drafting people based on what we think are the best players available, not what we need at this moment. Because those are where the mistakes are made."

Watkins was a prime example. So was second-round pick Jaiquawn Jarrett. Beginning in 2012, Roseman took a different approach to the draft. He would sign a handful of second-tier free agents to plug obvious holes, and then draft based strictly on grades -- without reaching for certain positions of need.

The 2012 draft produced Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Vinny Curry, Nick Foles and Brandon Boykin. In 2013, with new coach Chip Kelly involved in the process, the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson, Zach Ertz, Bennie Logan and Matt Barkley.

The problem is that the lessons of 2010 and 2011 didn’t remain learned. In 2014, the Eagles targeted six players in the first round of the draft. All six were selected before the Eagles' No. 22 pick arrived. Roseman traded that pick to Cleveland (which used it on Johnny Manziel) and moved down to the No. 26 pick.

Determined to get a pass-rusher -- that is, falling back into the drafting-for-need approach that produced Watkins in 2011 -- the Eagles selected Louisville outside linebacker Marcus Smith in the first round. The last six picks of the first round produced Arizona safety Deone Bucannon, Carolina wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin, Denver cornerback Bradley Roby and Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Roby just helped the Broncos win the Super Bowl.

With Smith on the sideline, Bucannon and Roby gave their teams young productive players at positions of need for the Eagles. Instead of Bucannon or Roby, the Eagles had to go into free agency last year and sign Byron Maxwell (six years, $63 million) and Walter Thurmond (one year, $3.25 million) to fill holes left unfilled by the draft.

If Roseman hadn’t retained the lessons of 2011, last year’s roster shakeup should reinforce those lessons. With Roseman ousted from the GM role, Kelly ran the offseason as if 2010 and 2011 never happened. He traded away players like Foles and LeSean McCoy, whom the Eagles had drafted and developed. He signed free agents like Maxwell, Thurmond, DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews.

The result was the Eagles’ worst season since 2012, the year the bottom dropped out on Reid. Kelly was fired and Roseman was moved back into a decision-making role. It would be natural for Eagles fans to cringe, convinced that the team is doomed to repeat an endless cycle of misguided leadership.

But Roseman had demonstrated in 2012 and 2013 that he could run a smart, disciplined and creative draft. If he drifted a bit in 2014 -- with Kelly having more input, by the way -- then Kelly’s 2015 disaster was a stark reminder.

That is why Roseman, at 40, should have the experience and the acumen to be better at his job than he was as a 35-year-old eager to make a splash. Nothing is for certain until he does it, of course, but there is at least as much reason to be optimistic as there is to be skeptical.