So you wake up on a Tuesday morning, check the NFL standings and realize that 16 teams -- yes, exactly half the league -- are carrying losing records into the season's final month.
In some years, a 5-7 record would put you in contention for a top-10 draft pick. In 2015, it plunks you atop the NFC East.
There are 10 teams at 4-8 or worse, and they neatly populate this week's Football Power Index (FPI) projections of 2016 draft position. Remember: FPI projections take into account projected results of each team's remaining games. It is not a snapshot of draft order if the season ended today. Ties are broken in reverse order of strength of schedule, as per NFL protocol.
1. Cleveland Browns
Record: 2-10
FPI odds of top pick: 58.6 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 98.6 percent
Comment: The Browns' reinstatement of Johnny Manziel as the starter, as reported by ESPN's Chris Mortensen, does not necessarily provide a window into their draft strategy. Manziel could play himself into or out of a 2016 job with the franchise, or he could ultimately showcase himself for an offseason trade. Or he could just party.
2. Tennessee Titans
Record: 3-9
FPI odds of top pick: 31.3 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 94.2 percent
Comment: After squeaking out a home victory against the Jaguars, the Titans finish the season against four teams fighting for a playoff spot. They'll play at the Jets, Patriots and Colts while hosting the Texans. Marcus Mariota & Co. could play the spoiler, or they could slide to a 3-13 finish.
3. San Diego Chargers
Record: 3-9
FPI odds of top pick: 6.1 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 76.0 percent
Comment: We don't know exactly where the Chargers are going to pick, nor where their 2016 draft picks will call home. But we know who will be making the call. The Chargers signed general manager Tom Telesco to a contract extension last summer and announced it this week, suggesting he will survive this miserable season.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.6 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 45.8 percent
Comment: Like the Titans, the Ravens will close out the season against four teams in the playoff hunt. They'll host the Seahawks, Chiefs and Steelers before traveling to the Bengals. This proud franchise might enjoy the role of spoiler, but a few victories could send its position tumbling.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 1.3 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 41.2 percent
Comment: Hey, welcome back to familiar territory after losing to the Titans. The Jaguars have picked among the top five in four consecutive years.
6. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.3 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 31.5 percent
Comment: Blaine Gabbert does damage even by playing well. His 44-yard game-tying touchdown run at Soldier Field forced overtime, and his 71-yard pass to receiver Torrey Smith gave the 49ers victory against the Bears. Also, it all but wiped out the 49ers' chances for the top pick and put them on the outside of the top five. Thanks, man.
7. St. Louis Rams
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 19.6 percent
Comment: A five-game losing streak with the future of the franchise, its coaching staff and quarterback in serious question? That's the kind of disarray that makes a team's draft position worth watching. The Rams might be down to their final two games in St. Louis and they might already have won their final game there.
8. New Orleans Saints
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.2 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 20.2 percent
Comment: Not to be outdone, the Saints have lost four straight and have slightly better odds than the Rams because their remaining schedule is so weak. If the Saints can't muster up a few victories on a slate that includes the Buccaneers, Lions, Jaguars and Falcons, then they will be highly deserving of a top draft pick.
9. Dallas Cowboys
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.3 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 22.8 percent
Comment: The Cowboys missed a colossal opportunity to get into the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick Monday night. Sure, they beat the rival Redskins in a dramatic finish. And yeah, I guess they're only one game out of first place in the NFC East. I suppose those are good things. But how great would it have been to see Jerry Jones in the draft's pole position? Alas, we'll never know.
10. Detroit Lions
Record: 4-8
FPI odds of top pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 10.8 percent
Comment: How badly did the Lions want back into this group? For starters, they refused to play their Hail Mary defense in the most obvious Hail Mary situation ever last Thursday night against the Packers. You know what happened next. They've got a real shot at their 11th top-10 pick in the past 15 years. That's special.