For Broncos, 10-player draft class would come at right time

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. -- The often murky math of compensatory draft picks is not something that is often performed all that well even by the teams involved. Nevertheless, the Denver Broncos will have the potential for a roster-changing draft class in the coming weeks if their math is correct and if they then handle their business.

John Elway, the Broncos' executive vice president of football operations/general manager, has said he believes the team will get four compensatory picks next week when the NFL officially hands them out, most likely Monday. With the six picks they already have -- one pick each in the first, second, third and sixth rounds to go with two in the fifth -- that would give the Broncos a 10-player draft class with which to work.

"We always say we don't draft All-Pros, we develop them," Elway said. "We want to develop our guys, draft guys we think fit the Denver Broncos with what we need for them to be here for a long time."

And to maintain their current playoff profile -- they have won four consecutive AFC West titles -- they need the 2015 draft class to eventually look like the 2011 draft class, which is the class that hit free agency this time around. It means Elway has completed his first real lap on the draft track as a team's chief football decision-maker.

Elway's first draft class hit the open market this past week, and the Broncos discovered that other teams liked what they found in 2011 too. In the end, seven players in that draft class of nine started games for the Broncos. Three of those players -- Orlando Franklin, Julius Thomas and Rahim Moore -- have now left for greener monetary pastures.

Tight end Vigil Green, a seventh-round pick in that '11 class, was re-signed and the Broncos will face a massive decision about linebacker Von Miller following the season. Miller was the team's first-round pick in 2011 and because of that had a fifth-year option on his contract, so he will not be an unrestricted free agent until next March.

Safety Quinton Carter (fourth-round pick in '11) and linebacker Nate Irving (third-round pick) both finished 2014 on injured reserve with knee issues and remain unsigned as they continue their recoveries. The other two picks in that draft -- Mike Mohamed and Jeremy Beal -- weren't with the team this past season, though Mohamed played 14 games with the Houston Texans in 2014, his second year with that team.

If the Broncos are going to stick to something close to the draft-and-develop model Elway said he'd like to use, they'll need a similar haul this time around in what would be one of their biggest draft classes of the past 15 years.

Since the 2000 draft the Broncos have had just four classes with 10 players in each of them -- 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2009. But those classes have brought decidedly mixed results as they found productive starters among those selections. Just two players among those four 10-player classes went on to be named to the Pro Bowl -- Miller and Thomas, both from '11.

Elway has said he's cautiously optimistic about the four additional picks -- "I don't even want to think about it," he joked -- and if the Broncos have done the compensatory math correctly those extra picks would come at a time when the Broncos' roster is changing its face, even more than the usual churn. And the team's Class of 2015 will be a big part of how it looks moving forward.