Fear not, Chicago Bears fans.
Six or seven wins is not out of the question in Year 1 under John Fox.
Why such optimism?
Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders ranked the easiest and hardest schedules over the final nine weeks of the season using their detailed DVOA ratings (defense-adjusted value over average).
DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. You can find a full explanation of the formula here.
After crunching the numbers, Football Outsiders determined the Bears have the third easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.
"November is definitely not easy," Schatz writes. "The Bears go on the road to San Diego and St. Louis, and then have to play back-to-back against Denver [at home] and Green Bay [at Lambeau]. Things get much easier from Week 13 on. There are only three teams currently below Chicago in our ratings, but the Bears get to host two of them at Soldier Field: San Francisco in Week 13 and Detroit in Week 17. They also play Washington at home and go on the road to Minnesota and Tampa Bay."
Injures tend to even out in the NFL. The Bears have endured a litany of injuries to key players over the opening seven games (Alshon Jeffery, Jay Cutler, Eddie Royal, Will Montgomery, Shea McClellin, Antrel Rolle, etc.).
Chicago is bound to enjoy improved health at the tail end of the year.
With a better compliment of players, the Bears should be favored in home games against the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Washington Redskins. While the Bucs are fresh off a big win in Atlanta, Lovie Smith is firmly on the hot seat in Tampa. Chicago's Dec. 27 trip to Raymond James Stadium is another winnable game for Fox and company.
No one is throwing the Bears a parade for finishing 6-10 or 7-9, but anything above last year's 5-11 nightmare campaign constitutes real progress.
































