The question was posed to me earlier this week: What needs to happen for EJ Manuel to win the Buffalo Bills' starting quarterback job this season?
My short answer: "A lot."
Manuel will need to light the field on fire when he starts Saturday against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and even then, that might not be enough. The Bills' decision still looks to come down to Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor, and Manuel's starting nod Saturday seems more a courtesy than anything else.
When announcing the decision Thursday, coach Rex Ryan indicated that Manuel would start because it was the fair thing to do -- and not because Manuel had pulled ahead in the race.
"My plan was to give everybody opportunities -- whether it was equal reps or whatever," Ryan said. "Nobody can say nobody was given a fair shot here."
Manuel finished spring practices with a legitimate chance to win the starting job. Cassel struggled throughout organized team activities. Taylor was uneven and inconsistent as he began the first No. 1 quarterback battle of his NFL career.
Yet after about a week of training camp, Cassel and Taylor pulled ahead of Manuel in the race and they haven't looked back. Even in Sunday's and Tuesday's practices -- the final two sessions open fully to reporters -- Cassel saw the majority of first-team reps, followed closely by Taylor. On Tuesday, Manuel ran the scout-team offense.
That's why I'm convinced Ryan's decision to start Manuel in Saturday's preseason game -- traditionally considered the most important, but Ryan has downplayed that notion this week -- doesn't mean much.
Will Manuel be running the first-team offense? Yes. Will that group include LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Robert Woods or Percy Harvin? Nope.
In reality, the only difference between Manuel running the second-team and third-team offenses (as he did in the first two preseason games) and the first-team offense (as he will Saturday) will be his offensive line. Manuel will have the starting line in front of him, which is a major upgrade from the Bills' shaky second unit up front.
Otherwise, the Bills figure to use their first-team and second-team running backs, tight ends and wide receivers interchangeably -- much as they did last week in Cleveland.
That doesn't lend Manuel much more than a symbolic advantage by starting. In fact, Ryan said Thursday that he also plans to use both Cassel and Taylor with the first-team offense -- which should be on the field into the early third quarter -- and so does it really matter if Manuel entered the game first, second or third? Probably not.
The Bills have gotten solid, but hardly spectacular play from Cassel and Taylor since the start of training camp. Each has avoided critical mistakes, the trait that -- barring a meltdown against Pittsburgh -- will win one of them the starting job.
That means Manuel must look like Aaron Rodgers when he starts against the Steelers' defense in order to put him in consideration to be the starter Sept. 13 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Even then, I'm not sure that would be enough.