UST entered UAAP Season 89 looking like a legitimate contender. Ten games later, the Growling Tigers are fighting to keep their Final Four hopes alive.
On paper, the pieces were there.
The Tigers had blue-chip prospects in Landyn Jumawan and Donovan Sevilla, while Mark Llemit and Amiel Acido returned to bigger roles after showing significant improvement. Collins Akowe was expected to benefit from a full rookie season and become more comfortable with the physicality of collegiate basketball.
Head coach Pido Jarencio was also entering his fourth UAAP season since returning to the UST sidelines, giving the program some continuity.
Instead, the Tigers have endured a nightmarish stretch. UST sits at 4-6 in seventh place in the eight-team tournament, ahead of only the winless UE Red Warriors.
After closing the first round at 4-3, the Tigers have dropped three straight games against contenders UP Fighting Maroons, De La Salle Green Archers and NU Bulldogs.
The regression has been particularly concerning because UST has not completely lost its offensive identity. The problem is that its production has become less consistent, while its defense has failed to make up the difference.
Just like last season, UST has remained willing to fire from deep in the second round, attempting 40 three-pointers per game and converting a respectable 34.17% of them.
The Tigers have also found ways to touch the paint through the drives of Llemit, Acido and Kirk Canete, or by feeding Akowe inside, opening up outside looks for Jumawan, rookie Andrew Chio, Koji Buenaflor and others.
But their efficiency inside the arc has taken a hit. UST is shooting just 42.39% on two-point attempts in the second round, down from 47.57% in the opening round.
The decline has also affected its interior production as the Tigers are averaging 33 points in the paint through their first three second-round games, down from 36.57 per contest in the first round.
Those drops may look modest, but they have carried significant consequences in close games. UST lost to UP by two points in double overtime and fell to NU by four. Its defeat to La Salle was more decisive at 12 points, where they were dominated in the final quarter.
The Tigers have struggled to close games. In their last three outings, UST scored just 14 points in the fourth quarter against UP, nine against La Salle and 14 against NU. That translates to an average of just 12.3 points in the final period, with the Tigers being outscored by a combined 27 points across those three fourth quarters.
Notably, UST averaged 21.42 points in the fourth quarter during the opening round and was outscored by just 1.43 points per game in that period.
The Tigers have managed to outscore their opponents in the fourth quarter only twice this season.
One came against NU in the first round, when UST erupted for 26 points against 13 to force overtime before eventually losing on Reinhard Jumamoy's game-winning triple. The other came against Ateneo, when UST won the final period, 26-17, on its home floor at the Quadricentennial Pavilion.
Meanwhile, its defensive rating of 76.79 is the second-worst in the UAAP, better than only UE. That figure, paired with an offensive rating of 75.41, leaves the Tigers with a negative net rating of -1.38.
The Tigers have allowed the second-most points in the paint this season at 36.0 per game -- again, only better than UE.
The numbers point to a team that has struggled to consistently get stops. UST can score in stretches, but it has not defended well enough to protect leads, slow down opposing runs, or give its offense room to recover when shots stop falling.
That becomes even more glaring in the fourth quarter. When the Tigers' scoring dries up, their defense has not been able to keep games within reach. The losses to UP and NU were decided by narrow margins, making every defensive possession crucial. Against La Salle, UST also struggled to contain a contender that was able to build and maintain its advantage.
If the Tigers want to turn their season around, they need to defend with greater urgency, particularly in the middle of games and down the stretch.
Better defensive rotations, stronger contests and more resistance in the paint would generate stops and create easier scoring opportunities in transition, where they also struggle at just 8.8 fastbreak points per game.
Their rebounding has also declined. UST averaged 48.57 boards per game in the first round, but that number fell to 40.67 in the second round.
There is a caveat on that number, however, as the Tigers opened the second round with a double-overtime game against UP, which inflated their total playing time and rebounding opportunities. Excluding the overtime periods, UST would average just 36 rebounds per game, a significant drop from its first-round output.
Against NU on Saturday, the Tigers recorded their lowest rebounding total of the season with just 29 boards.
Akowe's production has also become a concern. The 6-foot-10 foreign student-athlete managed just five rebounds and 11 points on 2-of-7 shooting against NU. It was his second straight game with 11 points, following a 2-of-10 shooting performance against La Salle.
For UST to remain in the Final Four race, it needs more from Akowe, who must be put in positions where he can maximize his size, finish around the rim and control the glass.
On a positive note, UST has cut down on its turnovers, averaging 14 per game in the second round after committing 16.71 in the first. The Tigers had just 13 turnovers against La Salle and only seven against NU, although both games ended in defeats.
UST also ranks third in the league in true shooting percentage at 45.95%, while its pace of 57.51 possessions per game is also among the fastest in the tournament.
The Tigers have shown they can move the ball and generate opportunities, but they have yet to sustain that production across four quarters.
Ultimately, UST's offensive dip and defensive shortcomings have arrived at the worst possible time.
Its defensive rating underscores the need for a more consistent effort on that end of the floor. Better shooting alone will not solve the problem if the Tigers continue to surrender points and lose control of the glass.
With four games left in the elimination round, UST's Final Four hopes are growing slimmer, but they are not gone.