What actually constitutes a good AFL team anymore? It feels like it's getting harder to tell, well, at least by popular consensus. Even performance isn't even necessarily a failsafe indicator these days.
Look at Fremantle. Fifteen wins now from 17 starts, a two-game gap on all rivals, yet still the Dockers are going to have their share of sceptics given their lack of September success.
In contrast, who's going to be game enough to dismiss Geelong from flag calculations? Yet the bottom line is the Cats have now lost five of their last six matches and slid to ninth, which right up until this year meant "no finals for you".
Carlton lost seven in a row, then won seven in a row. And then there's St Kilda, for mine perhaps the biggest conundrum in the competition in terms of just where they should be and where they actually are.
I was certainly more sceptical than most about the Saints pre-season, tipping them to finish only 13th when many had them jousting for a potential top four spot on the back of the influx of senior hands Tom De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Liam Ryan and Sam Flanders.
So who got it right and wrong? Who knows? Still. With just six games to go, I'm still not sure if the Saints are much chop or not. Maybe they're not, either. But in these bizarre days of a top 10, maybe you don't actually have to be much chop to still have a decent crack at it. Well, maybe not for that long, anyway.
Certainly, St Kilda's trip down to Geelong on Thursday night now shapes as pivotal in shaping the seasons of both teams.
Ninth and 10th now, they present an interesting contrast in profiles, the Cats having beaten five teams above them on the ladder, the Saints nobody above them.
Geelong on its home deck had strung together 10 wins on the trot before their loss to Brisbane two games ago. St Kilda hasn't won there this century, 13 defeats on end the upshot since winning there under Tim Watson in 1999, when 32 players on their current list hadn't even been born.
But Geelong keeps getting overrun, has more than its share of sore and ageing bodies, and now has to make do without Jeremy Cameron, Jack Henry and Tanner Bruhn.
And St Kilda? Well, the Saints' form is hardly demanding a drastic rewrite of premiership markets, but Saturday's 14-point win over a much-improved Port Adelaide makes it three from four, another of those victories coming over another improved team in the Giants, and this all after a narrow defeat to Sydney.
That's better credentials than "haven't beaten anyone above them" might superficially suggest. Which is sort of in keeping with St Kilda's 2026.
The ESPN Footy Podcast has regularly checked in on whether the Saints have actually improved, as coach Ross Lyon insisted they had after they'd lost narrowly against Adelaide back in April.
The Saints were 2-4 at that point but had lost three games by 13 points or less. Now they're 8-9 with four losses by 13 points or less and only one defeat by more than 33 points. Okay, marginal plusses there.
So, too, on the most basic indicators of attack and defence, points for and against. St Kilda ranked 12th and 13th on those scores respectively last season. Now, the Saints are ninth and eight on the same measures.
They rank third now for scores per inside 50, and are keeping good company with only Brisbane and Fremantle ranked higher.
And St Kilda is definitely doing the hard stuff better in 2026, their scores from stoppage ranking climbing from 14th to seventh, and their prevention of opposition stoppage scores a quantum leap from 14th to second.
Contested ball differentials have gone from seventh to second. And clearances from eighth to third. Transition is also much better, St Kilda third last for D50 to forward 50 ball movement last year, now eighth.
It's not "knock your socks off" improvement, but it's clearly there. Similarly, the specific drivers of the Saints' incremental gains aren't necessarily those who might first have come to mind.
Far from being yesterday's man post the arrival of De Koning, ruckman Rowan Marshall has a new lease on life, as he needed to given De Koning's serious rib injury. And while the loss of running defender Jack Sinclair is obviously a big blow, it's one the Saints are feeling perhaps a little less than they might have even earlier this season.
That's because we're seeing the increasing emergence of Max Hall and Hugo Garcia as playmakers, not just hard nuts and possession accumulators. The stop-start development of Mattaes Phillipou appears to have taken off again, and Darcy Wilson is obviously class.
A renaissance from veteran runner Brad Hill certainly hasn't hurt on that score, either. And Cal Wilkie just keeps getting the job done in defence.
Suddenly, it doesn't seem to be a case of Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera or bust for St Kilda. But the contributors are coming from all the demographics, the imports handy without being dominant, the veterans pitching in, some of the younger types just going up a cog or two as well.
Even coach Ross Lyon, for all his at times quite bizarre press conference wackiness and long-established credentials as king of defensive football, seems to have loosened up a little in coaching methodology, the Saints these days seemingly more prepared to give up the odd goal to kick some more themselves.
What does it all mean? Well, not a lot unless they continue to win. But there's a real opportunity now, Thursday night's clash with the Cats and Sydney in a fortnight the only two of their last half-dozen games against sides above them on the ladder.
Winning four of those six is very achievable, and 12 wins surely means finals in a top 10. Of course, in the new finals world, even playing off doesn't prove beyond dispute you're any good. But for a St Kilda team it's been very hard to get a decent handle on, it would be our best indicator yet.
You can read more of Rohan Connolly's work at FOOTYOLOGY.