When Australia walk out against Ireland at Allianz Stadium in Sydney Saturday week it will officially mark the beginning of the end of the Wallabies' Joe Schmidt era.
Heralded as the man to save Australian rugby, after Eddie Jones sunk the side to its lowest depths at the 2023 Rugby World Cup in France -- where they failed to exit the pool stage for the first time in World Cup history -- Schmidt has since led the Wallabies to mixed results. From record-breaking victories at Johannesburg and Twickenham, to an embarrassing winless European tour - the first for the side in 67 years. How his time as Wallabies coach is remembered could all come down to his final three Tests in July.
Before embarking on their northern tour Schmidt sat on a winning record of 43.47%, including two losses to the British and Irish Lions and a Bledisloe Cup sweep of losses in 2025. Upon their return it dropped to 39.28% - 11 wins and 17 losses from 28 Tests. It keeps him well above Eddie Jones (22.22%) and Dave Rennie (36.36%), but far from where the Australian rugby public, Rugby Australia and no doubt he himself would like to be.
It's been more than a decade since a Wallabies coach last posted a winning record. Finishing his tenure with the Wallabies in 2013 Robbie Deans left the side with a 58.67% record, he was followed by Ewen McKenzie (50%) and Michael Chieka (50%). Three wins at the Nations Championship won't be enough to pull Schmidt's name above the 50% barrier -- he'll top out at 45.16% -- but percentages never tell the whole story.
Entering a Wallabies group that had been deeply fractured through a whirlwind nine-month period under Jones, Schmidt's task was more than just bringing a the side back from the brink, but also to restore the Australian rugby public's faith. It speaks volumes of the work he's done and his high standing within Australian rugby that he faced little heat after last year's hollow 5-10 win-loss season. While sell-out crowds for the upcoming Ireland Test and last year's Lions tour prove the love has returned for Wallabies Tests.
An incredible triumph over the Springboks at Ellis Park, shock victory at Twickenham, and a dominant win in the third Test over the Lions in Sydney last year underlined the marked improvement the side has made under Schmidt and the direction he's been determined to take. Their inability to find consistency, the return of their disciplinary woes and the fragility of their set-piece soon came to the fore in Europe though and they quickly fell to England, Italy, France and Ireland.
The question now for Schmidt will be how he turns the group around when he takes on the same three sides who condemned his team to a winless end of 2025 and how he leaves it for his successor Les Kiss.
Will he embrace a high-risk, high-reward, all-out attacking style that has been a growing trend at domestic competitions around the world, including at the Hurricanes who finished the year with a record 113 tries? It certainly has its supporters with fullback Tom Wright more than open to the idea.
"There's absolute massive merit in that (direction)," Wright told media. "Understanding that at Test level there's a fair bit more that goes into it as well, around the set-piece battle. But I am a massive fan of it.
"There'd be massive thought being put into it from Joe and the coaching staff, alongside a whole heap of other coaches around world rugby, around the trade-off of risk-reward, and does it become like ... who can score 40 the quickest? I don't know."
Luckily for Schmidt he has no lack of talent with Wright, Max Jorgensen, Joseph-Aukuso Sualii, Tate McDermott, Dylan Pietsch and Len Ikitau high-calibre attacking threats, and despite their losses against Ireland and France they still scored eight tries (three and five respectively).
Meanwhile, the ongoing fly-half conundrum will need to be resolved and Schmidt could take the first steps in solving that problem if he is to pick and stick and find a winning rhythm with his first choice in July, whether that be Carter Gordon or Ben Donaldson who has recently enjoyed a turn of form for the Western Force.
But already questions are being asked of Schmidt's selection decisions with Lukhan Salakaia-Loto's failure to make the squad capturing headlines. Schmidt said he was overlooked because he wanted "fast jumping" speed at the lineout, but given he stole seven opponent lineouts through the Super season, the argument fails to stack up. The real loss will be Salakai-Loto's brute force and aggression, an area that the Wallabies struggled to own at the back end of their year.
Schmidt's selection policy of refusing to play players if they haven't been at camp for the full build-up to a Test has previously come under plenty of heat and could once again. Already it's been publicised that Len Ikitau, Tom Hooper and Taniela Tupou are unlikely to make selection for next week's Test with all three playing in finals last weekend and returning to Australia later this week. If their non-selection contributes to a Wallabies loss it could leave an ugly mark on his tenure.
While many will look upon Schmidt's tenure with the Wallabies fondly and perhaps a hint of rose-tinted glasses, three wins in July and a smooth handover to Kiss will secure his legacy as the man who led the rebuild of a program that was close to falling over the edge.