England's route to the 2026 World Cup final: Potential Brazil, Argentina knockout fixtures and why topping Group L is crucial

Sixty years on from England's only World Cup triumph, the 2026 tournament offers a familiar question with a new set of stakes: can Thomas Tuchel's side finally turn potential into a run to the final?

There are routes filled with danger, intrigue and the kind of heavyweight showdowns that define World Cups -- all shaped by where England finish in their group, and how the tournament's other favourites fare in theirs.

So what awaits England if they top Group L? And how dramatically does the picture change if they don't? From dream scenarios to potential nightmare draws, here is how England's road to glory could unfold.

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England's Group L games

Wednesday, June 17: England 4-2 Croatia (Dallas)

Tuesday, June 23: England 0-0 Ghana (Boston)

Saturday, June 27: England 2-0 Panama (New Jersey)

England's group at the World Cup probably ranked around middle of the pack in terms of overall difficulty -- and it's not particularly as deep as others -- but it was one of only two groups that contains two sides from the Top 11 of the FIFA Rankings (the other is Group C, featuring Brazil, Morocco and Scotland).

Croatia, the 11th ranked side, were dispatched 4-2 in the opening game of the group.

That result gave England a great chance of topping Group L, but the 0-0 draw with Ghana made things trickier. Thankfully for the Three Lions, a 2-0 win against Panama was enough to confirm their status as group winners.

What happens if England win the group?

Round of 32

Wednesday, July 1, 5 p.m. BST, Atlanta: England vs Group E/H/I/J/K third place

If England top Group L, they would face one of the eight teams who have qualified for the knockouts in third place.

Now, there are hundreds -- 495 in fact -- of different combinations to dictate which table-topping team a third-placed nation faces depending on which groups they come from, but we do know that England will face a team who finishes third in Group E, H, I, J or K.

That game would be played on July 1, in Atlanta.

Germany, Argentina, France and Spain have already topped their groups and if we assume Portugal win theirs, it would leave possible round-of-32 opponents as: Ecuador (Group E), Senegal (Group I), Austria or Algeria (Group J) or Congo DR (Group K).

Round of 16

Monday, July 6*, 1 a.m BST, Mexico City: England vs Mexico

*game takes place on Sunday, July 5 locally

If England make it past the round of 32, it gets a little bit easier to predict their next opponent -- hypothetically at least!

Next up, it would either be the winners of Group A, or the best-third placed team from Group C, E, F, H or I in Mexico City, in a game that kicks off at 1 a.m. in the UK.

Mexico topped a group that also featured South Africa, South Korea and Czechia, while possible third-place opponents include Scotland and Ecuador.

Assuming Mexico advance past the first knockout stage -- which is also in Mexico City -- then a blockbuster clash at altitude against one of the co-hosts at the world-famous Estadio Azteca awaits Tuchel's side.

Quarterfinal

Saturday, July 11, 10 p.m. BST, Miami: England vs. Brazil

While a tennis-style bracket means England would avoid the top three world-ranked sides until the semifinals, if they get to the quarterfinals then Brazil could be next in line.

England's next opponent would be whoever wins the round-of-16 tie in New Jersey on July 5. That match will be contested between the Group C winners or the Group F runners up, versus the Group E runners up or the Group I runners up.

Brazil topped Group C and, it might be tough, but you'd probably expect them to get past the round of 32 against Japan, and a round-of-16 clash against Ivory Coast or Norway.

The last time England faced Brazil in a World Cup quarterfinal was in 2002, when Ronaldinho's iconic lobbed free-kick over David Seaman saw the eventual winners progress.

Semifinal

Wednesday, July 15, 8 p.m. BST, Atlanta: England vs. Argentina

A lot of permutations to consider here, but if Portugal join Argentina in winning their group and advance through the opening knockout rounds, then Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo will face off in a quarterfinal clash in Kansas City on July 11. The winner of that will take on England, should they progress to the semis.

Other dark horses that could be in play here are Egypt -- on top of various third-placed sides.

Final

Sunday, July 19, 8 p.m. BST, New Jersey: England vs Spain

England have avoided the side of the draw where several of their European rivals lie, with Germany, the Netherlands and Belgium all contenders to make a deep run at this summer's World Cup.

The biggest threats, however, look to be France or Spain, who will meet in the semifinal should they make their way through a gauntlet of a bracket.

France may be the top-ranked side in the world right now but we'll go with England's most likely opponent here being Spain, given their status as tournament favourites. Spain, of course, beat Gareth Southgate's England in 2024's European Championship final. Will we see a repeat?


What happens if England finish second in Group L?

Round of 32

Friday, July 3, 12 a.m. BST, Toronto: England vs. Colombia

*game takes place on Thursday, July 2 locally

If England are second in Group L, then they are on the opposite side of the bracket and will play the runners-up from Group K, which is formed of Portugal, Congo DR, Uzbekistan and Colombia.

Colombia are top of the group with one game left to play, but that is against Portugal in what is a winner-takes-all clash. With Cristiano Ronaldo having now found his shooting boots at the tournament, you'd fancy Portugal to get the result they need here.

Round of 16

Monday, July 6, 8 p.m. BST, Dallas: England vs. Spain

Win that game, and England will take on whoever wins the July 2 round-of-32 tie in Los Angeles between Spain and a the runner-up from Group J.

With Spain facing either Algeria or Austria as their first knockout opponents, you'd expect the European champions to go through.

This would be a nightmare potential round-of-16 game for England, and a reminder of how important every World Cup group game is.

Quarterfinal

Friday, July 10, 8 p.m. BST, Los Angeles: England vs. Belgium

Somehow get past one of the favourites for the tournament -- or another round-of-16 opponent -- and England would most likely face the United States or Belgium.

The co-hosts navigated the group stages with some aplomb, but Belgium are the most likely winners of their probably round-of-16 meeting and opponents for England here.

Semifinal

Tuesday, July 14, 8 p.m. BST, Dallas: England vs. France

France have a very tricky run through the World Cup, with a potential clash against Germany in the round of 16 and the Netherlands in the quarterfinals, but get through those and they would be England's opponent here.

Final

Sunday, July 19, 8 p.m. BST, New Jersey: England vs. Argentina

Whoever gets through the gauntlet on this side of the bracket would get an extra day of rest in comparison to their opponents for the final, which could well be Argentina.

Argentina, as referenced earlier, may face Portugal in the quarters and it's a toss-up who could await them in the semis, but the holders could well make back-to-back World Cup finals.


What happens if England finish third in Group L?

Now, we're not going to go through every scenario here -- maybe for fear of jinxing Tuchel and Co. -- but the third-placed team from Group L does have a pretty clear idea of who they'd face in the round of 32, as long as they are one of the eight best-ranked third-placed sides.

The third placed team from Group L would face the winners of Group K on Saturday, July 4 in Kansas City at the unfriendly kick-off time of 2.30 a.m. (the match takes place on July 3 at 8.30 p.m. local time).

Group K, remember, is formed of Portugal, Congo DR, Uzbekistan and Colombia.