There was a chance when the season began that the NCAA record book, specifically the section dealing with home runs, would get a rest this season. That chance is receding at about the same rate as the softballs that Florida State's Jessie Warren drives over outfield fences.
All-time home run leader Lauren Chamberlain, who hit 95, doesn't need to sweat just yet, but Warren's power display during an otherwise dreary week for the Seminoles means the trend of sluggers chasing a once magical number is set to continue. Warren's five home runs this past week, which gave her eight in 16 games this season, allowed the senior to reach 70 for her career and moved her into a three-way tie for 23rd on the career home run list.
Prior to 2012, just 10 Division I players had hit as many as 70 career home runs. Former UCLA All-American and United States Olympian Stacey Nuveman tops that list with 90 home runs.
Warren is the 15th player since 2012 to reach 70 home runs. Indeed, almost as many members of the freshman class of 2012 (six of them) hit 70 home runs as the entire list of players in the history of NCAA Division I softball that predated their arrival (10 from 1982-2011). It's still a small club -- there have been more Oscar Best Picture winners in the same time -- but it isn't what it was.
Oregon's DJ Sanders, Texas A&M's Tori Vidales, McNeese State's Erika Piancastelli and the Georgia State tandem of Ivie Drake and Megan Litumbe are all within shouting distance, if not guaranteed, of reaching 70 this season.
Unlike in Major League Baseball, in which a century of evidence to the contrary raised suspicions about steroid use when balls started flying out of the park at a record pace, there are tangible explanations for the power -- improvements with video technology, scouting, youth coaching and bats, among them. But the milestones that matter moving forward, as we recalibrate these things, appear to be 80 and 90 home runs. There are still just nine players with 80 career home runs, and the post-2012 entries need make no apology for their place among the all-time greats: Chamberlain, Katiyana Mauga, Shelby Pendley and Sierra Romero.
Warren's home run total increased in each of her first three seasons at Florida State, from 19 as a freshman to 23 a season ago. She needs to hit 28 this season to reach 90 for her career, a big ask but just within the range of possibility that makes it intriguing after her first 16 games. Warren already owns the ACC record for career home runs.
Warren's home runs weren't enough to save the Seminoles from disappointment this past week, which included surprising home losses against McNeese State, less of a surprise given that the team continues to win games against big programs, and South Alabama, as well as a split of two games at Alabama. But the power around Warren -- the Seminoles are hitting more home runs per game independent of Warren than they did in any of her first three seasons -- suggests that opponents might have to pitch to the potential player of the year more than they would like.