India or South Africa - who will make the T20 World Cup semi-finals?

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Review - India comfortable but far from convincing (3:32)

With just three matches to go in Group 1 at the women's T20 World Cup, one semi-final spot is still up for grabs. It will all come down to the results in the two games on Sunday: Bangladesh (four points, NRR -0.849) vs South Africa (six points, NRR 0.734) and Australia (eight points, NRR 4.724) vs India (6 points, NRR 2.268). Here's how things will look like based on possible results in those two matches.

If India and South Africa win

Australia, India and South Africa will be level on eight points, bringing NRRs into play.

However, Australia are so far ahead on that factor that they will almost certainly top the group even if they lose. If India score 200, they will have to win by at least 93 runs to push Australia to second place; if they are chasing 160, India will have to chase it down in around 8.1 overs.

South Africa's NRR is far too poor for them to threaten Australia. In the first scenario above (India scoring 200), South Africa will need to win by around 210 runs to displace Australia on NRR.

Similarly, India are so far ahead of South Africa that a win by any margin on Sunday should ensure a semi-final spot. Even if they score 160 and win by just one run, South Africa will have to beat Bangladesh by around 122 runs to go past India's NRR.

Thus, in this scenario, Australia will likely finish on top, with India in second place.

If Australia and Bangladesh win

Australia will top the group with ten points, while India, South Africa and Bangladesh will all finish on six. But India's superior NRR should see them take second place. Even if South Africa, chasing 161, lose by just one run, India will have to lose by around 120 runs for their NRR to slip below South Africa's. Even if India lose by 120 runs, Bangladesh will have to win by around 117 to go past India's NRR.

In this scenario, Australia and India will almost certainly finish one and two.

If India and Bangladesh win

Australia will take top spot with India second, unless India win by a huge margin (see above).

If Australia and South Africa win

Australia will take top spot with South Africa in second place.