VIERA, Fla. -- It has probably been more than 20 years since I placed a bet, after an epiphany that should have come sooner. In Las Vegas to do a story about some San Diego Padres minor leaguers, I dropped about $200 in quarters into a slot machine in a span of about 15 minutes, and as I slumped on the stool, I looked around the room that had some of the many bright lights among the many large buildings, all of it paid for by folks like me. That was enough for me.
But the betting lines that emerge from the sportsbooks are fascinating, because you know that the people who gather all the money for the lights and the buildings are working with some kind of information or algorithm to set those. The Chicago Cubs have been cast as strong favorites to win the World Series this year not only because they're a great team, but also because those setting the lines are hedging against the big money banked on an extraordinarily popular team.
This is worth remembering while considering some of the over/unders placed on MLB teams so far.
Something really jumps out: The National League's numbers in general seem extremely conservative relative to the polarized competition we will see this season. There are going to be some really bad teams in the NL because of how many clubs are going through either a rebuilding or tanking cycle (depending on how you want to define it). As a result, the best teams are probably going to win more games than projected.
Some over/under team totals that are especially interesting:
The Cubs: 89 wins. This is a team that won 97 games and made the playoffs last year -- before signing Jason Heyward, and John Lackey, and Ben Zobrist. This team won 97 games in the rookie campaigns of Kris Bryant, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber.
All of the Chicago youngsters are now a year older, and meanwhile, NL Central foes Milwaukee and Cincinnati have dived heavily into focusing on the future.
Eighty-nine wins? Seems like a layup.
